Dead Heat in new Iowa Poll: HRC 29%, Obama 27%, Edwards 20%

[TeamJordan23]

THE NUMBERS — DEMOCRATS

Hillary Rodham Clinton, 29 percent

Barack Obama, 27 percent

John Edwards, 20 percent

Bill Richardson, 7 percent

Joe Biden, 5 percent

___

THE NUMBERS — REPUBLICANS

Mitt Romney, 36 percent

Rudy Giuliani, 13 percent

Mike Huckabee, 13 percent

Fred Thompson, 11 percent

John McCain, 6 percent

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071029/ap_po/poll2008_iowa_1

[StrongBad]

1. Interesting

It ain't over yet.

[FlaxieB]

2. Nope it is not over. We have two months to go.

[rocktivity]

3. I wish the methodology was better

but I've never bought into the Hillary having a lock on it:

689 Caucus-goers, MoE +/-3.9 percent
306 Democratic Caucus-goers, MoE +/-5.5 percent
285 Republican Caucus-goers, MoE +/-5.8 percent

:shrug:
rocknation

[Nederland]

24. I was thinking the same thing

Pretty small sample size on this one...

[havocmom]

4. but, but, HRC is ahead 30

brazillion.....

I have some real problems with polls. When they differ so much, it only raises my doubts about all of them a bit more.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. This Is An IA Poll Not A Nat'l Poll

DSB

[Bullet1987]

6. Yea, because national polls are BS

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. How Do You Figure?

I understand that the nomination is won state by state but it would defy the law of mathematics if a candidate was doing well in national polls but lousy in state polls...

[havocmom]

19. Yes, I got that. Not favoring HRC does not render me incapable of reading.

And my feelings about polls remain unchanged.

Should we dismiss the leanings of the good people of IA any more than the leanings of a state that may favor HRC by a larger %? That's not unlike dropping items from the index to compute inflation because one doesn't like the math if they are left in the mix.

If polls showing HRC as a very heavy favorite are OK, but polls showing her in a very tight race have qualifiers, it makes one wonder about the real value of polls. Are they gauges or propaganda devices?

[Basileus Basileon]

22. I don't really understand what you mean.

Nobody has suggested we "dismiss the leanings" of Iowans. Rather, we're entirely obsessed about what they think, because they're the only people who have the power to prevent our primaries from being an HRC sweep.

She is, nation-wide, a very heavy favorite. She is in a close race for the Iowa caucuses. What's the problem? What are the "qualifiers" that exist for this poll but not other state-by-state or nationwide polls?

[Yael]

40. I think more propoganda than anything

I mean look at Huckabee in second place. Boggles the mind.

[Basileus Basileon]

14. Please pay closer attention. HRC is up 30 in national polls.

IA polls have for some weeks shown a thin HRC lead.

[havocmom]

25. Yes, but it is that disparity in # by area which makes me wonder about polls

And condescending attitudes* of some HRC supporters do not serve the advancement of her cause with many people.

*Possibly one reason she doesn't pull as well in places like IA as some would like.

[Basileus Basileon]

27. It shouldn't.

Her lead is extremely similar and stable in most every state. Iowa is something of an exception--and that's because, as the first caucus, both Edwards and Obama have focused nearly all their energies there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Who's Condescending?

And I didn't know Senator Clinton has the monopoly on condescending supporters...

The reason that poll numbers vary from state to state is because of varying demographics...Iowa is probably one of the most homogeneous states in the Union...

[Nedsdag]

30. No, not 30 brazillion.

It's more like 300 brazillion!

:sarcasm: :rofl:

[Colobo]

7. GOBAMA! GOBAMA! GOBAMA!

The Obama victory will start in IOWA!!!

[MH1]

9. Gobama!!! (and Richardson)

but in the end - ABHRC.

[Colobo]

10. Where are the Hillary fans who argued

that Obama was done?

[William769]

11. The week is still young.

:rofl:

[Colobo]

20. I think you liked the poll.

[rinsd]

35. Check out the MOE's, they are close to 6 with a sample size 300 or less.

This poll is only slightly more worthwhile than the Newsweek poll that came out in Sept with an MOE near 7.

[jefferson_dem]

36. Sharpening their pitchforks and long knives.

Fuck'em...

[MNDemNY]

42. How was that gospel concert?

[jefferson_dem]

43. Read the reviews.

Let's not be so lame, eh?

[itsrobert]

12. The Conservative Democrats don't show up for caucuses and Primaries

Progressives and Union People do. Hillary is TOAST! :):D

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. Isn't Caucasus A Region In Eurasia?

"The Conservative Democrats don't show up for Caucasus..."


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasus


:rofl:

[Name removed]

17. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Basileus Basileon]

15. While a nice thought, that's not true.

Caucus-goers are pretty representative of the party.

[William769]

16. Like DU is?

[Basileus Basileon]

21. I'm not sure DU is representative of absolutely anything other than DU. nt

[Basileus Basileon]

18. Interesting. Too bad this poll doesn't show much of anything.

Given the nearly 6% MOE, any of the following could be true:

-Hillary with a solid lead.
-Obama with a slight lead.
-Dead heat.

I wonder what the rest of the polls this week are going to show. It'll be interesting if Obama actually has started to make a comeback.

[BootinUp]

23. massive MOE

this poll isn't that useful for separating the top 3 democrats with any precision.

[Adelante]

26. Not unusual in state polls, I've noticed

I'm not sure why but they tend to have MOEs roughly twice the size of national polls. Is it to do with the numbers polled? I dunno.

[FredScuttle]

29. good to see that courting and celebrating with bigots has worked out for Obama

n/t

[phen43]

31. OBAMA, OBAMA, OBAMA

yipee yay yah!!!:yourock:

[Adelante]

32. Different poll with similar numbers for Clinton and Edwards

Hillary Clinton 28%
Barack Obama 23%
John Edwards 20%

Strategic Vision 10/12-14/07
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_101807.htm

GOBAMA :)

[Yukari Yakumo]

33. Loose Translation

Edwards is toast unless a miracle happens.

With about 2 months left before the caucus, I see very little hope his campaign can turn it around in time. Especially since his numbers have been trending downward for months.

[Yael]

41. Yes, and Dean is inevitable!

Oh wait...

[liskddksil]

45. Edwards hasn't started running ads in Iowa yet

When that happens his numbers will rebound.

[hedda_foil]

34. OMG -- LOOK at Romney!

While we're comparing MOEs, Romney is 23% ahead of the field, with Ghoulie, Thompson and Huck back at 11-13%. To me, that means that his huge investment of his own $$$ in Iowa TV has had a real impact, which is scary as hell. The SOB is too smooth by half and totally capable of switching any of his positions to ones of perfect moderation for the General -- if he wins the nom. Plus, his wife is quite appealing and a real asset, whereas the obnoxious Judi is exactly the kind of woman that women viscerally HATE on d sight. BTW, that has little to nothing to do with the fact that Rudy left Donna Hanover for her under very nasty circumstances. It's as if she were wearing a ten foot tall sign with flashing lights reading "TOTAL BITCH"! It just oozes out of her pores and can't be changed cosmetically because it's who she is. Thompson's wife, otoh, could easily lose the trophy wife look and morph into the perfect candidate's wife. Women aren't going to vote for a man because they like his wife, but in some cases they can be turned off to the candidate because of his wife.

[tomreedtoon]

37. More important...why the hell is ROMNEY winning?

Are Republican voters easy fall guys for someone who looks competent?

Well, yes, they were sold Bush, with his stumbling, gin blossoms and all, but now they're falling for Romney's money and TV ads? Every time I see Romney I look to see if his Terminator eyes are glowing.

The Republican voters are switching from Uncle Drunk to a mechanical Stephen Colbert wannabe? I suspect his campaign theme will be "Play time's over, get into uniform, go and fight my wars and no more screwing around with magnetic ribbons! And no more coffee breaks!"

[maximusveritas]

38. Obama looks to be surging to the top, while Edwards is moving in the opposite direction

Not surprising.

[Yael]

39. Wow -- I thought Huckabee did a good job during the last debate

but he is vying for second in this poll? Who would have ever thought that one.

[ariesgem]

44. K & R

GOBAMA!

:kick: