Who do you think will win the primary?

[LoZoccolo]

Poll question: Who do you think will win the primary?

[saracat]

1. Neither?

[zulchzulu]

27. There should have been a choice for Edwards...

...and others as well...but at least Edwards...

[slick8790]

2. Holy shit!

They didn't even cover all the other candidates dropping out on the news!

[NanceGreggs]

Ya gotta keep up, my friend ...

... nothing moves faster than politics.

My condolences to all of those who fought the good fight, but are apparently now out of the running.

(Maybe Larry King will do a show on this tonight.)

[stevedeshazer]

3. Nader

:)

[JeffR]

4. Edwards

but that's just a guess.

[DesertRat]

5. Al Gore!

:evilgrin:

[Forkboy]

6. I'm still waiting for you to throw your hat in the ring.

[waiting for hope]

7. Neither -

Are you secretly a push poller?

[Windy]

8. Arent' you forgetting some candidates? Last I read, the primaries

dont' start for several months!

[ruggerson]

9. Which primary?

Or are you asking who will win the nomination?

[LoZoccolo]

10. Oh, you.

lol

[ruggerson]

13. Well

the maniacal English professor in me says you should have made it plural: primaries.

:)

[sakabatou]

11. Someone else!

[Colobo]

12. Obama will shock the world by beating Hillary.

[southerncrone]

14. Don't forget -- this is a DEMOCRATIC country & you've left out MOST of the candidates!

This is like something that might have happened in the Soviet Union. Or a Rovian tactic. Limit choices.
Jeeesh!:crazy:

[Progressive Friend]

17. You only get two choices in the US: right-wing and far-right

[southerncrone]

20. Seems they are telling us that, huh!

[Xenotime]

22. Ha! good point.

[LWolf]

15. Neither. n/t

[dmallind]

16. To all those posting "neither"

I have but one question: Wanna bet?

I'm a fan of Richardson first and Edwards second. However I do not let my preferences blind me to reality. I would say Edwards has about a 5% chance of winning if he finally gets his populism and sensible fiscal ideas to resonate. I'd say Richardson has about a 1% chance of winning if enough of the others drop out and he gets some campaign discipline to stake out the sensible middle. Anyone else but the two above are way below that probability.

If anyone wants to bet real money I'll take the following odds:

Gravel: 150-1
Kucinich: 100-1
Biden: 50-1
Dodd: 50-1
Richardson: 25-1
Edwards: 10-1

Just keep the wagers coming - I'll tell you when I've reached the limit I can't cover.

Or do you really only mean you WANT neither to win, rather than THINK neither will win.....

[Colorado Progressive]

19. I genuinely think Edwards will win, though I prefer DK nt

[dmallind]

31. So far nobody predicting anyone else has stepped up

to win some easy money at quite generous odds.

I suspect that says a lot about how much faith people have that "neither" really will win. Sadly, I agree with them. I had thought Edwards could make a move but he's still struggling to find traction with his ideas, and the compressed primary season and huge treasure chests of the big two render almost meaningless the early state results. The only way they would matter and knock off one of the top two is if either Hillary or Obama is absolutely and completely annihilated - not just beaten - in at least two of the first three states. Just a 30-25 win for Edwards or any of the second tier (or any of the pipedream vanity candidates) isn't going to do diddly this time. Only way it's not one of these guys is if one of them hits single digits in two of the kickoff contests.

[Colorado Progressive]

18. Edwards!

[AZ Criminal JD]

21. Why not just put one name in the poll and be done with it

[Digit]

23. Edwards

[Douglas Carpenter]

24. I think Sen. Clinton will probably win the nomination. I think her chances in the General Election

are slightly better than 50/50.

Of course things can change.

I'm supporting Congressman Dennis Kucinich in the primaries because I think he is the ONLY candidate adequately addressing many of the most important issues and offering a genuine progressive vision. My hope is that the primary campaign of Congressman Dennis Kucinich will influence that debate and broaden the range of discussion.

Of the two top candidates - I'm pretty close to neutral. Although I suppose I would only slightly tip in favor of Sen. Obama. But seriously there is more difference in a good rowdy middle school race for 8th grade class president.

Still none of us want to see four years more years of a Republican presidency. The consequences of that would be just too devastating. And no genuine progressive President would be able to undo all the harm that would cause by winning in 2012 - even if that was actually to happen.

[Carrieyazel]

26. Is that all we've got? A candidate who's chances are slightly higher than 50/50?

That isn't enough to win the general election. We need more of a margin than that. I suspect if Hillary is nominated we will see four more devastating years of a Republican presidency.

[Douglas Carpenter]

28. here is a good website which tracts all the major polls both within the respective major parties

and possible General Election match ups:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

We see that Sen. Clinton, like Sen. Obama and Sen. Edwards does have a reasonable lead over any leading GOP contender.

Of course things do change. In November 1983 polls should former Vice President Mondale beating President Reagan. Only a few months before the general election in 1988 Gov. Dukakis had a 17-point lead over then Vice President George H.W. Bush.

I wouldn't say that anyone is a sure bet.

[Carrieyazel]

29. Thanks for the link. You're absolutely right. Things do change.

And nobody is a sure bet. One thing is remarkable though. Democrats have these leads early, and seem to blow them as the election nears.

[LoZoccolo]

30. "That isn't enough to win the general election."

:wtf:

[Carrieyazel]

25. Neither.

[William769]

32. Hillary. NT