Kurtz, WaPo: "Stunning the Pundits"

[DeepModem Mom]

Stunning the Pundits
Tuesday, Feb 17, 2004; 11:28 PM

Two hours before the Wisconsin polls closed, the pundits started taking turns dumping on Howard Dean (four weeks after many of them expected him to win Iowa on the way to the nomination)....

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The media are desperate for a two-man race -- not just because it's a better story line but because the alternative is no race, if Dean and Edwards keep splitting the non-Kerry vote....

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Old media consensus: Edwards was too positive, too unwilling to draw contrasts with Kerry, and so must be running for VP, or 2008.

New media consensus: Edwards is such a good and likable campaigner that he closes strong when he has the time to spend in a state....

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....When are journalists going to stop treating tracking polls as gospel, especially in primary elections where turnout is an unknown factor? Late last week, MSNBC/Reuters/Zogby had Wisconsin as Kerry 47, Dean 23, Edwards 20. Such surveys set the bar high for Kerry and fairly low for Edwards.


more:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/nation/columns/kurtzhoward/

[DeepModem Mom]

1. kick -- interesting from Howie, posted very early this a.m.

[SangamonTaylor]

2. yeah, the WI result was shocking after those terrible zogby polls n/t

[ShaneGR]

3. The main problem with the tracking polls

They only call Democrats with a history of voting in Dem primaries. So when turnout is high it screws the whole poll up.