Movin' On Up: Hillary Pulling Away...

[William769]

Polls, polls, and more polls over the last few days, and they uniformly paint a bright picture for Sen. Clinton, and a dim picture for Obama/Edwards/rest of the candidates.

http://bluenation.blogspot.com/2007/09/movin-on-up-hillary-pulling-away.html

[havocmom]

1. Accurate or just painting what the establishment wants us to believe

I don't personally know ANYONE who wants HRC. If she is so hugh wouldn't it be likely to hear someone in real life who supports her nomination?

Not bashing, just honest and honestly curious.

[collegegirl211]

3. Just go to realclearpolitics Hillary is leading in every national and state poll including Iowa

[havocmom]

29. And it is very easy to slant a poll

:banghead:

Sorry, I believe what I hear PEOPLE SAY before I believe what polls TELL ME TO BELIEVE

edited because 'it is' works better than 'is is'

[Kelly Rupert]

52. So you believe anecdotal evidence before statistical fact.

How many polling organizations do you believe are slanting their questions towards Hillary? Does Rasmussen? Gallup? All of them? Before you answer, keep in mind that all of them seem to show roughly the same numbers.

[Kelly Rupert]

4. Don't you think "The polls are all part of the conspiracy"

is just a little tinfoilish?

[collegegirl211]

7. It's all they have left to argue kind feel bad for the Obama and Edwards supporters lol

[Tellurian]

14. The Edwards supporters yes...

K&R

[havocmom]

18. I'm not naive

One dosen't have to be a tin-foiler to not be naive.

And wasn't it HRC, herself, who put "vast Right Wing Conspiracy" into the common vernacular? ;)

[Kelly Rupert]

27. Claiming that every single polling institution is "in on" a conspiracy

does indeed require one to be slightly naïve.

[havocmom]

28. LOL

Part of what I dislike about HRC is her supporters who use neocon tactics of denigrating and distorting what non-supporters say.

[Kelly Rupert]

51. First, those aren't "neocon tactics."

That hardly even makes sense. Neoconservativism is a political philosophy. Distortion has been around forever.

Secondly, I'm not a Hillary supporter.

Thirdly, you suggested that this poll was, rather than reflecting reality, reflecting what "they" wanted you to believe. This poll is in line with all other polls that have been taken nationwide. Either you are horribly, badly mistaken as to the nationwide polling trends, or you believe that all polls in America are part of a misinformation conspiracy.

[Turn CO Blue]

79. Temper that assumption with how Howard Dean was polling

for the 2004 election. Dean was winning in most polls in December 2003 by a landslide. And...you saw how that turned out. Kerry had a massive "come from behind" moment in the early primaries in January. EXCEPT Kerry didn't "come from behind". Kerry was apparently ALREADY way ahead (he had to be since he won), but none of the pollsters knew it until mid-January or in some cases, until Kerry had WON! Why not? Why didn't these "professionals" have it right?

I suspect faulty data collection and skewed selection criteria. The pollsters just are not very good anymore. I don't believe that it's due to a "conspiracy"; I believe it's because they are BAD at their trade and still get paid regardless (kind of like the weatherman).

Again, polls and people being polled are very, very SOFT at this stage and mean absolutely NOTHING -- just ask Howard Dean.

FLASHBACK TO 2003:
<http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/12/09/elec04.prez.gore.dean/>

Poll: Dean's New Hampshire lead increases
Thursday, December 4, 2003 Posted: 1:43 PM EST (1843 GMT)

SPECIAL REPORT

(CNN) -- Howard Dean has increased his already sizable lead in New Hampshire, according to a poll released Thursday.

The survey by American Research Group found that Dean had 45 percent of the potential vote among respondents, far ahead of second-place John Kerry, whose support was at 13 percent.

Dean's support was 7 percentage points higher than a poll released November 20.

Kerry has dropped 4 percentage points since that poll.

And again (notice John Kerry with only 4%):
<http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/17/opinion/polls/main589167.shtml>

Special Report
CBS NEWS POLLS

Poll: Dean Pulls Away In Dem Race
Ex-Vermont Gov. Leads Clark And Lieberman By 13 Points


NEW YORK, Dec. 17, 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Howard Dean has the backing of 23 percent of likely primary voters, the same as he did in the days just prior to Saddam's capture. (AP)


(CBS) Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has pulled away from the field in the Democratic Presidential nomination race: his support among Democratic primary voters nationwide has risen in the past month, and held steady after the news of Saddam Hussein's capture.

CHOICE FOR DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE
(Democratic primary voters)
Now
Howard Dean
23%
Wesley Clark
10%
Joe Lieberman
10%
Richard Gephardt
6%
Al Sharpton
5%
John Kerry
4%
John Edwards
2%
Carol Moseley-Braun
1%
Dennis Kucinich
1%
Don’t Know
28%

[DangerDave921]

5. polls

Everyone I know dislikes her. I want to know all the people who say they'll vote for her. Other than the fact that she's a woman, what does she have to offer?

[Kelly Rupert]

9. Her policy stances are almost identical to Obama's and Edwards',

and she's shown a better record of defending herself successfully than either of those two. I'll gladly support her in the general election.

[havocmom]

19. 'almost' is a lot like 'close'

and 'close' only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades

[Kelly Rupert]

26. A 1.4% disparity in voting record, however,

is not the wide gulf we're claiming.

[havocmom]

30. Ah, the spilting of hairs from the orignial hound used in the hunt

And there is the point that record is not everything. There are people about with longer resumes too, so HRC promoters (won't even call internet advocates 'supporters' since hired guns are posting around the tubes) best not be trying to run on that alone.

HRC simply alienates too many voters from ALL political fields.

Next up: I must hate women? Don't go there either.

[robcon]

82. If "Everyone [you] know dislikes her" then widen your circle.

Here in NY she is an EXTREMELY popular Senator, with enormous support for her presidential run.

[juajen]

64. And, everyone I personally know is in favor of HRC.

How large is your world?

[Odin2005]

71. I know plenty of people that like Hillary, it's mostly name recognition right now.

That's pretty much the main reason Clinton's poll numbers are so goo right now, no conspiracy that I can see. I'm expecting it to be a very tight 3-way race to the finish between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards come Christmas.

[Liberal Dose]

2. I haven't met one person IRL who supports her. I moved from FL to Philadelphia area 6 wks ago n/t

:hi:

[wyldwolf]

6. Everyone I know IRL, except my wife's Republican parents, supports her.

[William769]

8. Maybe you should get out more?

8/30/2007
Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton 38%
Barack Obama 21%
John Edwards 17%
Unsure 18%
Other 6%


http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/pennsylvania.html

[daa]

16. THE RACE: The presidential race for Democrats in Florida.

THE NUMBERS — DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton 42 percent

Barack Obama 13 percent

Al Gore 12 percent

John Edwards 9 percent

[daa]

17. For the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination Georgia

Hillary Clinton - 34%
Barack Obama - 25%
John Edwards - 13%
Bill Richardson - 8%
Joseph Biden - 5%
Chris Dodd - 1%
Dennis Kucinich - 1%
Undecided - 13%

[emilyg]

21. Good for my state.

[Liberal Dose]

38. LOL..None of these polls can change the fact that nobody I have spoken with will say they support

Hillary. :shrug:

[William769]

44. Hence, maybe you should get out more.

[Liberal Dose]

60. I don't want to speculate the possible reasons for your hositility, but hanging out here for almost

4 yrs has taught me to just put people like you on ignore. You obviously have an agenda that doesn't involve actual discussion. :* buh-bye

[William769]

62. Hostility?

People that are les than true full Like your postings give me cause for concern.

[Moochy]

66. OMG concern!!!

[Moochy]

65. Said the guy posting on a message board.

[William769]

75. Glad to see I have a follower.

:hi:

[Moochy]

78. Just helping out your Cause any Way Possible!

What with Matt the sheepdog surging in the polls its the least i can do!

[collegegirl211]

10. Name one person who's going to stop her!

And please dont say Obama because he peaked over 3 or 4 months ago.

[Anarchy.X]

11. Herself and her history

Right now people are simply being shown nothing but PR from all the candidates, and of course her machine is the best run. She can't hide from her history, nor the fact that she has done nothing to show people that she is different from many Republican candidates.

When the real debates amongst the Democrats happen, her fellow candidates will remind/show people why she is not only despised by the Republicans, but also why she is not wanted by a majority of the Democrats.

[pagandem4justice]

46. Yep

Don't know if I could say that a "majority" of Dems don't want her necessarily, though I have a strong suspicion that many of the people who tend to vote Democratic might support her as what they feel is a strongest option right now, but would also switch to another strong candidate just as quickly.

But I absolutely agree that Hillary's record is milquetoast at best -- we need someone more willing to take a stand.

Welcome to DU! :)

[Liberal Dose]

39. Okay you say name one person then you say who not to name LOLOL!!!!! n/t

[motocicleta]

76. I can name one person:

whoever the pukes throw up against her in the general.

Voter hatred of pukes - Hillary hatred - electoral fraud = four more years of puke rule.

Voter hatred of pukes + anyone but HRC - electoral fraud = should be enough to put a Dem in the WH.

Just sayin'.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I Once Had A Pug Boss Who Said He Never Met Anybody Who Voted For Bill Clinton

Go figure...

[Liberal Dose]

40. I have a pug boss who says he had no idea that Al Gore has a great sense of humor. He also says he

likes Hillary more than Romney but wouldn't vote for either. :hi:

[truebrit71]

34. Me either. Not a single one. Well, not a single DEM that wants her...the rethugs I know...

..simply cannot WAIT to see her nominated....Because they know that's the ONLY way they stand a chance at victory...

If it's Edwards or Obama they're royally screwed and they know it...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. " .... the rethugs I know simply cannot WAIT to see her nominated...".

"More tears are shed over answered prayers than unanswered ones."


-St Teresa Of Avila...

[truebrit71]

42. Yeah, right..okay...

:eyes:

It's simple really...HRC gets the nom...Rethuglicans win...

[KoKo]

12. That's good. Now we don't have to work hard for the election, pounding pavement

convincing neighbors... It's all decided. Ahhhhh that's a relief.

[Larkspur]

13. Yeah if Hillary is a shoe-in, then we don't need to donate time or money to her

I'll help real Democrats instead.

[ellacott]

15. If Hillary were a shoe-in they can also quit with the Obama attacks

Either they're not that confident with those polls or they have other issues regarding Obama and this is the only way they know how to vent.

[emilyg]

20. Very few attacks on Obama, compare to what gets posted every night by a certain poster from the land

[ellacott]

23. I don't know who you're talking about

But there are quite a few attacks on Obama on this board.

[William769]

24. Compared to Hillary?

Read much?

[ellacott]

25. Believe me I read, probably too much, what you say makes no sense

I'm not comparing them to anyone. No where did I compare the two. There is too many negative posts about Obama, Clinton and others.

If there are 4 more negative posts about Clinton doesn't discount the number of negative posts about Obama.

[zulchzulu]

31. Wow! CNN polls have Clinton leading! Who woulda thunk that...

Vinod Gupta and InfoUSA would.

CNN's Opinion Research was purchased by InfoUSA, owned by Vinod Gupta, a major Clinton/DNC donor and fundraiser and Lincoln Bedroom guest during Bill's tenure and one who has been sued by his shareholders of his own company.

Gupta has even hired Bill Clinton as a consultant for a cool $3 million.

Add that Gupta's InfoUSA collects the financial information and names of older Americans and sells them to predatory mortgage lenders who try to convince them to sign up for questionable equity loans.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E04E2DD103EF934A1575BC0A9609C8B63&sec=travel&spon=&pagewanted=print

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Here's A Link To Dozens Of Polls

Show me a poll where HRC isn't leading her Democratic rivals... Any poll:


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08dem.htm


It is what it is...

[zulchzulu]

37. I think the Gupta-CNN link is an important story

Frankly, national polls at this point are as valuable as what to put in the President Gephardt Library, since he was leading in national polls at about this time in 2003.

I haven't visited the Muskie Presidential Library in Maine either...is there one? he was kicking ass and taking names in national polls in 1968.

On the Gupta-CNN polling link, I think it is a good thing for people to know about.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. The Muskie Campaign Imploded...

I don't remember Gephardt being the early front runner...That honor belonged to Holy Joe...

The difference between HRC , Muskie, and Holy Joe is that she is as tough as nails...She will rip your heart out and show it to you before you die...

[Tellurian]

50. whoa...Looks like she's already done it to Obama..GO HILLARY!

His pics show him very grey looking..and a handful of supporters in Clinton, Iowa.



More reporters than supporters isn't a good sign either..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. Stop That

I like Obama, Edwards, and HRC...

I don't confuse what's happening with what I'd like to see happen... I'm a realist but as of now HRC is doing very well...

But HRC is tough...She's a juggernaut....

[Tellurian]

55. Chill...

Nothing needs to happen. It's already happened.

[Moochy]

72. Most Dishonest Hillary Backer on DU

that'd be you.

[burythehatchet]

32. The dim picture is that of America

We're so screwn

[truebrit71]

33. Yawn. Wake me up when someone has actually FUCKING VOTED!!!!

...Who gives a shit at this point? They're ALL FUCKING MEANINGLESS!!!!

[William769]

56. Yawn. Wake me up when someone actually decides to run!

:rofl:

[Tellurian]

69. Every poll I've looked at has Hillary in the lead by 2-1

Obama and Edwards are in a statistical dead heat.. afaics

In fact, if you add Obama + Edwards numbers together, she still beats them!

:rofl:

[ljm2002]

43. So ridiculous!

Remember folks: not a single primary vote has yet been cast.

Let's at least get a few votes under our belts before we start calling the race.

[MonkeyFunk]

47. No one's calling the race

polls don't purport to do that.

They present a snapshot of where things stand TODAY.

and TODAY, Clinton is leading the pack by a fairly large margin.

[ljm2002]

48. May I refer you to...

...the title of the OP: "Movin' On Up: Hillary Pulling Away..."

QED.

[MonkeyFunk]

49. sure you may

but it doesn't in any way contradict my point.

If she's leading by more today than she was two weeks ago, she's pulling away. That's where things stand today.

Neither the polls nor any of her supporters are saying that this means she will win the primaries. It merely means that as things stand today, she's ahead, and getting further ahead, of her competition.

[catgirl]

45. The news of the growing draft for Gore will change things

I've just read articles from Massachusetts and New Hamphire about
growing draft movements. It's getting breezy in here.

[William769]

54. Good luck with that.

You can't draft someone who does not want it.

[catgirl]

57. Ever heard of Eisenhower?

[William769]

63. If thats all you got to hold on to, then go for it.

[BenDavid]

58. All one has to do is research if you disbelieve

these polls. These polls are pretty accurate......and to all HRC supporters here is the poll the Obama and Edwards folks did not ever wish to see....

CNN/GALLUP POLL SEPTEMBER 7, 2007....
HILLARY CLINTON.....FAVORABLE..... 51% UN-FAVORABLE 39%

DID YOU SEE IT! UNDER 40% and that my friends means she is gaining throughout the country and will win the democratic nomination...and better yet.....become the 44th PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES...

I DO THANK YOU
BEN DAVID

[JNelson6563]

59. These number don't bother me

Don't get me wrong, I surely hope the string of dynastic presidents is broken (Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush, Bush...) but I don't see Hillary winning the nom as the end of the world.

What does bother me is the incredibly nasty, Heatherish crap posted in this thread, mostly by Hillary supporters.

How alienating! Not much in the way of real world activism I'd wager. Or else they'd know the name of the game is to win over supporters, not make them hate you and anyone you're supporting.

I cannot imagine even thinking of recommending DU to my real life friends, I'd be too embarrassed to be associated with the extreme assholishness that currenlty rules the day.

Julie

[Moochy]

67. well said

Heathers for HRC

[ellacott]

68. Very well said

It's amazing to read some of the things posted against fellow Democrats. It is definatelty alienating and so disappointing to read.

This is nothing but a game to many people here.

[HughBeaumont]

61. Don't care, don't care, don't care. Still not voting for her.

"They suck, and . . . but . . . but . . . I suck LESS! Yeah, that's it . . . vote for me!" SIGH. Over and over and over again until America finally gets it right, I guess.

[Tellurian]

70. No, they suck because they can't beat the GOP..

in the General...

[Moochy]

73. Fish don't fry in the kitchen;

Well we're movin on up,
To the east side.
To a deluxe apartment in the sky.
Movin on up,
To the east side.
We finally got a piece of the pie.


Fish don't fry in the kitchen;
Beans don't burn on the grill.
Took a whole lotta tryin',
Just to get up that hill.
Now we're up in the big leagues,
Gettin' our turn at bat.
As long as we live, it's you and me baby,
There ain't nothin wrong with that.


Well we're movin on up,
To the east side.
To a deluxe apartment in the sky.
Movin on up,
To the east side.
We finally got a piece of the pie.

[William769]

74. It's great that the Clinton's will be in the White House isn't it?

[Moochy]

77. No

I'd prefer a liberal democrat got the nomination.

[Carrieyazel]

80. She's not pulling away though.

She's up about 5 to 7 points from a couple of weeks ago, but I thought this latest media blitz, (Ellen, Letterman etc.) would have put her up higher. And the Hsu business could slide her back to 38% or so in the nationals. She is not inevitable.

[1776Forever]

81. No Health Plan - Says she will reform NAFTA - I swear if she betrays us I will never vote again!!!!!

I pray to God that Hillary does not betray the middle class and continue outsourcing our entire country and its future!!!! There is so much at stake here!!!!:kick:

[Carrieyazel]

83. she likely won't be president, so if she does betray us she'll be doing it in the Senate

Yes, I would love if Hillary had a long Senate career.

[ileus]

84. It doesn't matter what....Hillary is our pick.

Before the first vote is cast she's got it...mark my word.

[THX1138]

85. Here are some other interesting polls

ABC News Poll. Sept. 10-13, 2003. Registered voters nationwide who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents.

"If the 2004 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?" Names rotated

ALL / Likely Voters

Joseph Lieberman 21 19
Howard Dean 15 20
John Kerry 14 19
Richard Gephardt 14 15
Wesley Clark 6 6
Al Sharpton 5 5
Carol Moseley Braun 4 4
John Edwards 3 4
Bob Graham 3 4
Dennis Kucinich 2 3
None (vol.) 3 0
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 2 0
No opinion 8 -

--

CBS News/New York Times Poll. Sept. 28-Oct. 1, 2003. N=353 Democratic primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 5 (total sample).
.

(A) "Who would you like to see the Democratic party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2004: Howard Dean, John Edwards, Richard Gephardt, Bob Graham, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, Carol Moseley Braun, Al Sharpton, or someone else?" Names rotated. Half-sample (Form A)

(B) "Who would you like to see the Democratic Party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2004: General Wesley Clark, Dr. Howard Dean, Senator John Edwards, Congressman Richard Gephardt, Senator Bob Graham, Senator John Kerry, Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Senator Joe Lieberman, former Senator Carol Moseley Braun, Reverend Al Sharpton, or someone else?" Names rotated. Half-sample (Form B).

(A)Names Alone (B)Names & Titles / Combined Results

Wesley Clark 14 10 12
Richard Gephardt 5 15 10
Howard Dean 9 9 9
Joe Lieberman 5 13 9
John Kerry 4 11 8
Carol Moseley Braun 7 1 4
Al Sharpton 3 4 3
Bob Graham 3 3 3
John Edwards 1 3 2
Dennis Kucinich 1 1 1
Other (vol.) 27 10 18
Don't know 21 20 21

--

Zogby America Poll.Nov. 3-5, 2003. N=558 likely Democratic voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.2.

"If the Democratic primary for president were held today and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?"

11/3-5 10/15-18 9/22-24 9/3-5

Howard Dean 15 12 12 16
Wesley Clark 10 10 12 3
Dick Gephardt 9 5 6 8
Joe Lieberman 9 8 5 12
John Kerry 7 9 7 13
Al Sharpton 4 3 4 2
John Edwards 3 3 2 3
Dennis Kucinich 2 1 1 1
Carol Moseley Braun 2 5 4 2
Other 6 6 3 3
Not sure 34 38 43 38
Bob Graham n/a n/a 1 -


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm