Edwards wins Daily Kos straw poll with 40%. Obama a solid second at 22%.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

Damn. Edwards really should quit and let Obama and HRC battle it out for what is rightfully theirs. Why does he even bother? The audacity of hope! :sarcasm:

Last month's numbers are in parentheses. The Daily Kos straw poll is a good gauge of a candidate's netroots support.

1) Edwards 40% (39)
2) Obama 22% (24)
3) Other 9% (6)
4) No Clue 7% (7)
5) HRC 6% (6)
6) Richardson 5% (5)
7) Kucinich 3% (2)
8) Gravel 1% (3)
9) Dodd 1% (0)
10) Biden 0% (0)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/6/28/04210/9256

[youngdem]

1. All this shows is that the net tends to be more progressive than the general public

Edwards is in third, everywhere....but on the progressive web straw polls.

Sorry. Wish it was Obama and Edwards duking it out instead of Hillary and Obama, but it ain't the case.

People aren't identifying with him...either with his accent, or holding on to his loss in 04, or his haircut, or whatever, but he just isn't catching on.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

3. So you must also think Obama is an also-ran?

That means HRC is the inevitable nominee and we should all pack up, go home, and start working for her GE victory...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3343178

draft_mario_cuomo (1000+ posts) Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jun-28-07 01:17 AM
Original message
Is Obama trouncing a distant third place Edwards? Is this now a two-way race between HRC and Obama?

Edited on Thu Jun-28-07 01:18 AM by draft_mario_cuomo
There is a meme developing: John Edwards' campaign is a hopeless cause. He should just quit and let HRC and Obama battle it out for the nomination. This has become a slowly stirring theme on DU. One source of it is some HRC supporters. This is in line with the general "HRC is inevitable" theme. The other, more common source is some Obama supporters. They, peculiarly, argue that Edwards' third place in the polls (where Kerry was at this time in 2003) renders him irrelevant. This is despite the fact that Edwards is closer to Obama in the polls than Obama is to HRC. If Edwards is doomed, by extending their logic Obama also has no chance of ever overtaking HRC. This is also despite the fact that in the early states they are more or less on par. Both lead in one early state (Edwards leads in Iowa and Obama leads in SC), Edwards leads third place Obama by 7.5% in Iowa, Obama leads Edwards by 2.9% in New Hampshire, Obama is ahead by 4% in Nevada, Obama has a 4.8% edge in Florida, Edwards trails by 5.2% in California, and 3.9% in New York. Only in South Carolina does Obama trounce Edwards (by 20.1%). In Iowa, NH, Nevada, Florida, California, and New York the average gap is 2.2% in favor of Obama. Include South Carolina and the average deficit is 4.8%. Why can't Edwards realize this is an insurmountable gap and quit his campaign? :sarcasm:

The reality is there is a close battle for second position going on in the early states (and if Edwards wins Iowa, Obama's slim advantages in NH and NV would be negated, although a SC victory could offset Iowa and make things even for CA and NY). They both lead a similar number of states (Edwards leads in three: Iowa, Oklahoma*, and North Carolina. Obama leads in two: South Carolina and Illinois).

*Tied with HRC at 29%.
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draft_mario_cuomo (1000+ posts) Journal Click to send private message to this author Click to view this author's profile Click to add this author to your buddy list Click to add this author to your Ignore list Thu Jun-28-07 01:29 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Good post. Here are the polls right before Iowa

Edited on Thu Jun-28-07 01:36 AM by draft_mario_cuomo
On 1/8/04--right before Iowa--the national polls looked like this:

1) Dean 20%
2) Clark 13%
3) Holy Joe 8%
4) Gephardt 7%
4) Kerry 7%
6) Mosley Bruan 4%
6) Edwards 4%
8) Kucinich 3%
9) Sharpton 2%

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Dean looked "inevitable" and had raised the most money while Clark looked like the only person who could become the anti-Dean and challenge him for the nomination (sound familiar? ;) ). Kerry and Edwards were in a close pack with Holy Joe, Gephardt, Braun, Kucinich, and Sharpton. We all know how things turned out what voters had their say...
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[brentspeak]

6. Uh, yeah...sure...

"Sorry...People aren't identifying with him...but he just isn't catching on..."

You mean the general public has already voted? The primaries have been held already? Who knew?!

:eyes:

[youngdem]

20. His numbers aren't moving in the right direction

Infer what you want....I infer from sagging poll numbers and pegged out name recognition as a lack of traction.

What do you see?

[Penndems]

2. Ann Coulter's snide comments are putting me squarely in John Edwards' camp

Up until now, we Democrats have had such an outstanding slate of candidates, it's been difficult to choose. If Coulter considers former Senator Edwards such a threat she has to attack him, he must be doing something right.

[William769]

4. Daily Kos is about the same as DU.

Not that thats a bad thing. Just saying.

[rinsd]

5. After Obama smacked Kos around, its hardly a surprise that Edwards wins the straw poll.

Both Kos and Jerome at mydd.com have been pimping Edwards as hard as they can since primary season started.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

7. That meme is false. Kos was thinking about supporting Richardson until he bombed a few weeks ago

It was either his MTP performance or his statement on Gonzales that caused Kos to write him off. I rarely visit Mydd so I can't comment on that site.

Why has Edwards consistently led on Kos, even before the alleged pro-Edwards conspiracy began?

Kos is running a website. It is in his interest to have maximum traffic. He isn't going to damage his product by attacking a candidate with 22-28% support on his website.

[rinsd]

12. I am talking about Kossacks not just Kos himself.

"Kos is running a website. It is in his interest to have maximum traffic. He isn't going to damage his product by attacking a candidate with 22-28% support on his website."

He doesn't have to attack Obama just promote Edwards. And he does that.

As far as the voting community, you are aware that Obama called out the Kossacks when they flipped out over his cloture vote aren't you? Grudge die hard in the blogosphere.

[Adelante]

10. What do you mean?

"Obama smacked Kos around"

[rinsd]

13. Link here.

http://nymag.com/news/politics/21681/index4.html

Obama’s first year in office, he voted for cloture on the nomination of John Roberts to the Supreme Court (though not for the nomination itself), earning dozens of angry posts on Daily Kos, a hugely well-trafficked liberal blog. Obama responded with a polite but stern four-page note.

“One good test as to whether folks are doing interesting work is, Can they surprise me?” he tells me. “And increasingly, when I read Daily Kos, it doesn’t surprise me. It’s all just exactly what I would expect.”

Foxnews tried to make something of the more recent arguments over the funding bills but Kos and Obama aren't exactly peas and carrots

[Adelante]

16. I see, thanks nt

[beachmom]

17. A shallow assessment of Kos by Obama. Yes, there is a certain

mob quality there, but delve deeper and you can find a lot more nuance and varying opinions. Obama should post on DailyKos again. I mean, he's getting 22% by doing nothing. Imagine if he reached out?

[rinsd]

18. Obama gains nothing by reaching out to Kos.

He's doesn't need the leaders of the netroots. He has already made a tremendous impact on his own on the internet. As you said with zero direct effort he is 2nd.

If anything I think you will see Kos becoming more Obama friendly especially if Edwards fades.

[jobycom]

8. It's more a gauge of Kos's audience.

Not knocking Kos or Edwards. If you go to "Democrats for Hillary," she'd win a straw poll, and if you go to "Wackos for Some Republican Shithead," Giuliani would win. Kos's audience leans towards Edwards, or Edwards's supporters like Kos. That says nothing about national preferences or a candidate's chances.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

9. Kos is a gauge of netroots support, nothing more and nothing less

Obviously, the netroots are a small slice of the electorate, even when you factor in those who have the same views as members of the netroots but do not visit netroots sites. Still, this is a group with disproportionate weight. Ask Howard Dean. :)

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Very small slice

And that's the problem with the netroots leaders, an inflated estimate of their influence. It can have an impact in small primaries but the netroots is virtually irrelevant in choosing a presidential nominee.

I talk to people every day about politics and a significant majority have no idea what I am talking about when I mention terms like netroots or DailyKos.

[elocs]

19. I think we can get big-headed with our own self importance.

Like what Dirty Harry said, we're a legend of our own mind. Some excellent and important things said here at DU and KOS, but I don't think we are an accurate reflection of the Democratic Party as a whole and certainly not the American public as much as we would like to think that everybody thinks, or should think, as we do.

[Bryan]

11. I think Edwards' level of web engagement tells a story here

Elizabeth has a diary on DailyKos (and has posted here, for that matter), which probably helps to color their opinion of the campaign, as I think it helps to give the folks at Kos a feeling of positive colloquy with the Edwards campaign. That engagement work might be helping determine the direction of the poll.

[wyldwolf]

15. I guess voting for Hillary three times wasn't enough

[Czolgosz]

21. Who's following the primary closely? Iowa Democrats, On-Line Democrats. Hillary does poorly among

those who are paying the closest attention.