McCain is leading in IA, NH and SC. Clinton in NH, SC; Edwards in IA

[Pirate Smile]

New Polls: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina

The American Research Group has new polling results for the Democratic and Republican presidential caucus/primary races in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Iowa:
Edwards 27%, Clinton 23%, Obama 19%
McCain 26%, Giuliani 19%, Romney 14%, F. Thompson 13%

New Hampshire:
Clinton 37%, Edwards 26%, Obama 14%
McCain 29%, Romney 24%, Giuliani 17%

South Carolina:
Clinton 36%, Obama 24%, Edwards 18%
McCain 36%, Giuliani 23%, F. Thompson 10%

Key observations: Edwards leads Clinton among women in Iowa 32% to 26%. McCain is regaining strength among independents (47% in Iowa, 33% in New Hampshire, and 36% in South Carolina) while also leading among Republicans.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/05/01/new_polls_iowa_new_hampshire_south_carolina.html

The Dem numbers seem like nothing unusual.

The Republican numbers are what struck me - perhaps I haven't paid all that much attention to the Republican state numbers.

The conventional wisdom has so consistently been spouted about Rudy's big lead in national polls that it did surprise me to see McCain leading in these important states.

His many obituaries seem to have been a bit premature.

edit to add standard caveat - yeah, it is early, polls don't necessarily mean anything, blah, blah, blah.

[David Dunham]

1. Obama is not looking good. Fading slowly to third or worse.

[Skip Intro]

2. please let it be mccain, please please please

[ElizabethDC]

3. It would be nice wouldn't it? n/t

[Gloria]

4. Obama has to stay strong enought to drain some money and momentum

from Hillary...so some of it can go to Edwards. Edwards really needs Obama to weaken Hillary.

[TwilightGardener]

5. New Hampshire for Romney? Must be the Massachusetts effect.

Surprised McCain is doing so well-guess his goose isn't cooked yet after all.

[Pirate Smile]

6. I think the things he does that make us think he has lost his mind helps

him pick up Republican voters.

No surprise there, I guess.

He actually fits the Republican party much better then either Rudy or Mittens. He also has hired a huge team of smear merchants. I've been wondering when he will set them loose but he has to be careful not to alienate Republicans who already don't really trust him. I suppose the more he smears Dems, the more the base will like him. That may be his plan.

[TwilightGardener]

7. My theory, to add to yours, is that Thompson is his stalking horse,

employed to bring down Rudy and keep Romney's poll numbers low. Weird, how one day Fred just appeared, but seems no closer to running after 2 months--and also has cancer, and very few credentials, and his politics are exactly the same as McCain's, and they are very much good friends. Hmmm.

[Pirate Smile]

8. kick