'08 Senate Playing Field Still Favors Dems: Top Ten Senate seats most likely to switch party

[DeepModem Mom]

WP political blog, "The Fix," by Chris Cillizza
The Line: Senate Playing Field Still Favors Dems

....At this still-early point, incumbents are making decisions about their political futures, aspiring candidates are weighing potential runs and the party committees are cajoling and coddling candidates to best position themselves for next November....The No. 1 ranked race is the one most likely to switch parties in the 2008 election....

***

4. Louisiana: The lone Democrat senator in the top five, Mary Landrieu has run a solid campaign to this point. She reported raising $1 million in the first quarter of 2007 and ended the period with nearly $2 million in the bank. We can't get a fix on whether or not Rep. Richard Baker (R) is truly interested in challenging her. Democrats pooh-pooh the idea while Republicans insist there remains a chance that he will launch a bid. Independent polling continues to show Rep. Bobby Jindal (R) with a wide lead over Landrieu, but the problem for the GOP is that Jindal is running for governor this year and has showed no interest in switching races. Like Iowa, Louisiana is a state Republicans must contest if they hope to keep 2008 from being a total Democratic wave. President Bush carried the state by 15 points in 2004. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Minnesota: Al Franken is no joke. The comedian-turned-politician opened a lot of eyes by raising $1.3 million in the first fundraising quarter -- a total that nearly equaled that raised by Sen. Norm Coleman (R). While Franken is off to an impressive start, he'll face a real challenge from wealthy attorney Mike Ciresi, who did not raise money in the first three months of the year but is clearly intent on running. Lucky for Democrats, both Franken and Ciresi have pledged to abide by the decision of the state party's endorsement convention next year -- avoiding a messy September primary fight. Coleman is one of the most politically savvy members of the Senate and is bracing for a tough race. But even if he is ready for the storm, he might not be able to escape it given his state's Democratic tilt. It remains to be seen whether it will be to Coleman's advantage or detriment that the Republican National Convention will be held in the Twin Cities next year. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. New Hampshire: Recruitment will make all the difference in this race. Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) is putting the full-court press on former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen to take on Sen. John Sununu (R) for the second time in the last six years. Shaheen appears to be listening. If Shaheen decides to run, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand has said he will step aside, and it's likely former congressional candidate Katrina Swett would also come under considerable pressure to step aside. Democrats see Sununu as the single most vulnerable incumbent seeking reelection in 2008. Already, outside groups have begun hammering the incumbent on his ties to President Bush's Iraq war policies. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Colorado: McInnis's no-go decision surprised many Republicans, since he has long pined for the chance to serve in the Senate. With McInnis out, it seems as though the establishment will coalesce around former Rep. Bob Schaffer, who ran and lost the 2004 Republican Senate primary to beer magnate Pete Coors. Schaffer has said little publicly about his future plans since McInnis dropped from the contest. Rep. Mark Udall (D) continues to lay low and collect cash. It's tough to handicap this race until the Republican field shakes out a bit more, but regardless of the eventual GOP nominee, Udall will enter the general election as the favorite. (Previous ranking: 1)

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/04/friday_senate_line_1.html

[Raven]

1. In NH, not just outside groups working against Sununu,

many NH-grown, grassroots groups are already at it. Remember, Carol Shea Porter won up here without the help of outside groups. We are well organzied, fresh from victory and raring to go after this guy. Shaheen running would make it even easier!

[SteppingRazor]

5. Sununu's on borrowed time and everyone knows it

The only reason he's even in office is because of the phone-bank scandal. Voters in NH are certainly well-aware of that fact. And with its heavy independent streak, New Hampshire doesn't like having a candidate rammed down their throats. Polls in NH have indicated that even people who supported Sununu in 2002 will work to remove him from office this time around.

[WI_DEM]

2. Why in the hell is LA so strong for the GOP given the GOP's handling of Katrina?

is it because many people who might vote democratic have not gone back or are unrepresented in the polls because they don't have telephones working yet?

[SteppingRazor]

4. Very simple reason.

Louisiana is a mostly red state. Democrats running for statewide office in LA have always (and by always, I mean for at least 40 years) relied on heavily blue New Orleans to get elected. That voting bloc is no longer existent.

Sadly, I have to agree that Landrieu will likely be defeated in 2008. However, I also think the three that are above her in the WaPo article will also flip, giving the Democrats a net gain of two seats. If Domenici and/or John Warner retire, that number goes up. Oregon remains a tossup, but certainly has potential.

[Parisle]

7. Another factor, perhaps?

--- Doesn't Halliburton have a pretty large presence in LA?

[SteppingRazor]

8. I don't see how that affects the election, though...

The Carlyle Group owns Dunkin' Donuts, which are in every state. Should we be scared of that too?

I'm certainly open to criticism of Halliburton's involvement in post-Katrina redevelopment of New Orleans — as in Iraq, the company appears to have overcharged by many millions of dollars — but I don't think the company's presence has any effect on Louisiana's senatorial election campaign, apart from possible investments in Landrieu's opponent, whomever that may be.

Or am I missing something?

[SteppingRazor]

3. The real news here is that I'm a brilliant political prognosticator

:P

His top five were my most likely pickups back in February, and for all the same reasons.
http://blogs.southflorida.com/citylink_dansweeney/2007/02/a_filibusterfree_seante_in_200.html


I rule! :evilgrin:

However, I'd bump Pete Domenici up to No. 6. That US Attorney thing is gonna bury him, and Susan Collins remains relatively popular in Maine, while Warner, despite that bizarre fundraising number, hasn't indicated he's dropping out. If either Warner or Domenici drops out, though, those seats both become incredibly likely Democratic pickups. On the other hand, the Dems' most likely drop out, Tim Johnson, leaves only a tossup potential for the GOP, as Governor Mike Rounds would have to face popular Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth.

[DeepModem Mom]

6. You DO rule! nt

[rockymountaindem]

9. Everybody should watch the Udall campaign

While he's not Paul Wellstone, Udall is a pretty liberal guy and would be a good progressive pickup in the Senate. I also think he will run a very strong campaign and will likely be a dynamic opponent to Schaffer's bone-dry old man shtick. That ought to be a good race to watch.

[SteppingRazor]

11. Now that McInnis is out, this one's a gimme...

even with McInnis in the race, this was the easiest Dem pickup. Without him, the GOP in Colorado is finished, as far as this race goes. Not that Udall can afford to get lazy, but if he runs a great campaign and avoids scandal, at this point, he can't lose.

[rockymountaindem]

12. Except that the whole "Boulder Liberal" tag they're going to malign him with

could narrow the race.

[Eurobabe]

10. Jean Shaheen will def. take NH

from what I've heard from my Dad and his Granite State pals.

[Rydz777]

13. Katrina Swett

New Hampshire's Katrina Swett is Tom Lantos' daughter. It would be interesting if she made it.

[Parisle]

14. 55 - 45 would be nice.

--- That is the minimum realignment for which the democrats should be aiming,.. or I would consider it a sign that the momentum of 2006 had been squandered.

[SteppingRazor]

15. That's gonna be realy tough ... but possible.

If we pick up Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon and hold onto Louisiana, it's doable.

But, realistically, the only way we can accomplish this is if Warner or Domenici retires, allowing us to make a go at Virginia or New Mexico.

I wouldn't look at 55-45 as a be all/end all thing, though. Any gains, no matter how small, are good. Bigger is of course better, but I'll be happy if we pick up a net two seats to bring us to 53-47. I'll be ecstatic if we get 55-45, and anything more than that is pure gravy.

[Parisle]

16. I'm in Virginia,...

--- And I expect that John Warner will decide to retire; I only hope that former top-rated governor Mark Warner will make a run for that seat. But I'm also looking for another gain in an "unexpected" race,... same as happened in Va. in 2006. Everyone seems to think Landrieu is a goner, and I'm in no position to disagree.