Al Gore attracts more bets than odds favorite Hillary Clinton

[Douglas Carpenter]

link:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060620/to081.html?.v=31

"American bettors warming to Al Gore as President in 2008
Tuesday June 20, 2:42 pm ET
Former Vice President attracts slightly more bets than odds favorite Hillary Clinton
Sportsbook.com posts updated odds on 2008 Presidential Election

WASHINGTON, DC, June 20
snip:"Despite his claims to the contrary, many Washington insiders are anticipating a Gore-Clinton showdown for the Democratic nomination. Odds on Gore winning the 2008 election have jumped markedly from 70-1, when betting opened a year ago, to 20 -1 currently. This significant shift reflects the sizeable increase in bets wagered on Gore over the past six months, a probable reaction to rampant media speculation of a second Gore candidacy. 12.8% of all bets at sportsbook.com are now being wagered on Al Gore compared to 12.5% for Clinton. Most of Gore's support is coming from California and New York where he has respectively received 37% and 47% of all wagers."

snip:"Although bettors are evenly divided between Clinton and Gore, a resounding majority believe that the 44th President of the United States will be a Democrat. Nearly 20% more bets are being wagered on Democrat than Republican candidates to win the Presidency in 2008. In the battleground states of California and New York, at least 7% more wagers have been placed on Democratic candidates than Republicans, while in Florida and Texas, at least 12% more wagers have been placed on Republicans.

Among the possible Republican candidates, bettors favor Senator John McCain (R-AZ). Odds on McCain, who lost the Republican nomination to George Bush in 2000, becoming the next American President are currently 6-1. Former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani rounds out the top four with 10-1 odds. Giuliani, a Republican, gained international acclaim for guiding America's largest city through the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center."

snip:"
Latest odds on the 2008 U.S. Presidential Elections:

Name Odds %Wagers

Hillary Clinton 3-1 12.57%

Al Gore 20-1 12.85%

John McCain 6-1 18.50%

Rudy Giuliani 10-1 12.59%

Sam Brownback 10-1 0.00%

George Allen Jr. 10-1 5.58%

Bill Richardson 12-1 0.65%

Mitt Romney 15-1 4.92%

Mike Huckabee 20-1 0.00%

Mike Huckabee 20-1 0.00%

Evan Bayh 20-1 0.80%

Chuck Hagel 22-1 0.41%

Colin Powell 25-1 1.06%

Joe Biden 30-1 1.66%

John Edwards 30-1 1.86%

Bill Frist 30-1 2.77%

Barack Obama 40-1 0.62%

Tom Vilsack 40-1 0.27%

Russ Feingold 40-1 0.50%

Newt Gingrich 40-1 0.70%

Bob Kerrey 50-1 0.02%

Tom Ridge 50-1 0.20%

John Kerry 50-1 2.95%

Mike Gravel 50-1 0.00%

Rick Santorum 50-1 0.00%

Tom Tancredo 50-1 0.00%

Tom Daschle 50-1 0.04%

George Pataki 50-1 0.00%

Condoleezza Rice 60-1 3.89%

Gary Locke 70-1 0.00%

Dick Cheney 75-1 1.26%

Dick Gephardt 75-1 0.00%

Wesley Clark 75-1 2.14%

Howard Dean 75-1 0.13%






2008 Presidential Election - Betting Trends

Wagering on Democrat vs. Republican Candidates
Democratic Party 58.8%
Republican Party 40.1%
Other 1.1%

For a full list of odds and additional information please visit http://www.sportsbook.com


read full article:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060620/to081.html?.v=31

[waiting for hope]

1. Gore/Edwards in 2008....eom

:bounce:

[durrrty libby]

2. I believe his stock will keep rising over the coming year

He will be a great president!

[Douglas Carpenter]

3. /

[karynnj]

4. I have never bet - so I may be off -base on this comment

It looks though like Clinton is 12.57% of the bets as a 3-1 pay off; Gore is getting 12.85% as a 20-1 payoff. It's not fair just to look at the % of bets.

[Bucky]

5. I did some so-called "fun" with math. And yes, these numbers are BS-ish

But of course most gambling odds are phony--that's how the houses make money. I'm sure the difference represents the monetary value of the entertainment.

According to these numbers, the Republicans listed have a collective 85.7% chance of winning the presidency. Of course you'd have to buy the premise that Tom Tancredo has one chance in fifty of becoming president to believe that. The Democrats listed collectively have a 77.3% chance of winning. If the odds weren't bogus, that would mean that the Republicans are favored 52.6% to 47.4% to win.

You get these exaggerated odds because no betting establishment is going to offer to pay off more than 75 to 1 on an election (at least not this far off from the outcome.

Interestingly, the people betting on these candidates strongly expect a Republican victory. While the article states "Nearly 20% more bets are being wagered on Democrat than Republican candidates to win the Presidency in 2008," the numbers they give show the opposite. They show that only 37.06% of wagerers are betting on a Democrat winning while 51.88% are wagering on a Republican. I think that's probably a case of people with a lot of disposable income betting their hopes.

That, or Bill Bennet is backsliding.

Here's my raw numbers for Dems:

candidate %of wagers Odds (converted to Percentages)

Clinton . . . 12.57% 33.3%
Gore . . . . 12.85% 5.0%
Richardson 0.65% 8.3%
Bayh . . . . 0.80% 5.0%
Biden . . . . 1.66% 3.3%
Edwards . . 1.86% 3.3%
Obama . . . 0.62% 2.5%
Vilsack . . . 0.27% 2.5%
Feingold . . 0.50% 2.5%
Kerrey . . . 0.02% 2.0%
Kerry . . . . 2.95% 2.0%
Daschle . . 0.04% 2.0%
Locke . . . 0.00% 1.4%
Gephardt . 0.00% 1.3%
Clark . . . . 2.14% 1.3%
Dean . . . . 0.13% 1.3%

For an example of this distortion, notice how despite the odds-smiths giving Bob Kerrey a shot in 50 of winning, only one wager in 5000 is going for him. They're still listing Dean as a 75 to 1 possibility even though he's categorically removed himself from consideration.

The odds among the Republicans are even weirder. Brownback--who has serious support among the rank and file knuckleheads, is getting zero bets. I agree with the oddsmakers here. If I were a betting man, I'd take Brownback over Giuliani for the Republican nomination. I know Giuliani isn't insane like Brownback, but sanity isn't the standard here. Many Republicans wouldn't vote for a pragmatic politicians if the South Pole melted. And I mean that literally.

McCain . . 18.50% 16.7%
Giuliani . . 12.59% 10.0%
Brownback . 0.00% 10.0%
Allen . . . . . 5.58% 10.0%
Romney . . . 4.92% 6.7%
Huckabee . . 0.00% 5.0%
Hagel . . . . . 0.41% 4.5%
Powell . . . . 1.06% 4.0%
Frist . . . . . 2.77% 3.3%
Gingrich . . . 0.70% 2.5%
Ridge . . . . . 0.20% 2.0%
Gravel . . . . 0.00% 2.0%
Santorum . . 0.00% 2.0%
Tancredo . . 0.00% 2.0%
Pataki . . . . 0.00% 2.0%
Rice . . . . . 3.89% 1.7%
Cheney . . . 1.26% 1.3%