U of Cinn - Another bogus poll

[OzarkDem]

They've started pretty early in the season with the rigged polls.

I've heard rumors that Blackwell and DeWine are starting to have a hard time raising money and the GOP is beginning to threaten anyone giving money to Dem candidates. No doubt there's still plenty of pay to play going on, too.

Their latest one shows Ted Strickland with only a 6% lead over Blackwell and DeWine with a 10% lead over Brown. :spray:

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/PDF/OhioPoll/op052506.pdf

Pretty amazing - that makes them about 7-11 points off everyone else's polling in Ohio - well, except for the Plain Dealer polls.

On edit:

Rasmussen Poll from May 15 has Brown with 44% and DeWine with 41%; there's no way DeWine picked up 10 points in another poll conducted at the same time.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/Ohio%20Senate%20May.htm

The same Rasmussen poll had Ted Strickland at 52% vs Blackwell 36%; quite a difference from U of Cinn poll showing Strickland at 50% vs. Blackwell at 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/May%202006/Ohio%20Governor%20May.htm

[AndyTiedye]

1. They Are Polling the Diebold Voting Machinez

[Zynx]

2. They have Democratic voters giving DeWine a net favorable rating?

Huh?!

[OzarkDem]

3. Total crap

DeWine has one of the lowest approval ratings of all senators in the US. He's been hovering around 42 - 46% approval all year.

U of Cinn has always had "problems" with their sampling.

On edit - they list of registered voters they're using for their sample must not include all the Dems they plan to purge from the voting rolls in November.

[Zynx]

4. What kind of Dems do they sample?

Democrats who haven't voted Democrat since 1964?

[OzarkDem]

5. In the past

they've had a tendency to skew their sample to favor voters in the southwest and western part of the state, with fewer voters from the northeast and urban areas.

They did the same thing in 2004 and 2000.

[nickshepDEM]

6. Just an FYI. The Plain Dealer polls were conducted by Mason Dixon --

Argueably the best pollster in the country. Without a doubt the best from 2004.

[OzarkDem]

7. Depends on how you define "best"

When I was working on the Gore campaign in Ohio in 2000, PD had Mason Dixon poll numbers that were 6-9 points off other polls, including the Dems own internal polls. PD timed them to discourage funders and to push Gore into pulling out of Ohio.

It worked then, but since then Dems have learned about PD and their use of Mason Dixon polls. They've been wildly inaccurate so far this year, showing Brown and Strickland's support far lower than other, more well known polls.

Dems should always beware of any Mason Dixon polling in their state. If the GOP isn't afraid to rig elections, they certainly aren't afraid to rig polls.


On edit: BTW, who is the DLC backing in this race - DeWine or Brown?

[nickshepDEM]

8. Other...

Hackett, the man who could have actually pulled this one in.

Oh yeah, I define best as being within the MOE in almost every final poll in 2004. They were excellent.

[OzarkDem]

9. You mean the guy

who refused to do fundraising, couldn't meet payroll and refused to campaign in the black neighborhoods?