|
and Chemical/Biological as well, from other technologies. The sheer destructive power of these weapons, and the relative lack of skill and people needed to operate them, makes them different. Diffusion of nuclear weapons technology is a danger to everyone, and everyone has the obligation to work to prevent that diffusion to increasingly unstable states. Logically, the thing that kept the US and USSR from going to war directly, instead of through the Proxies of Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan, was the threat of mutually assured destruction. Both nations, and their leaders, knew there was no way to win a nuclear war, and there were enough checks and balances, however weak, to prevent someone with a death wish from gaining access to the nuclear button. Until 2001, when Pakistan joined the club, the Nuclear states were basically rational actors, as rational as a state could be. No matter how screwed up their internal politics were, the leadership had enough restraint and sanity to not want to die, or see any percentage in doing so, they all had too much to lose.
Now, as nuclear weapons continue to proliferate, there is an increasing chance, every year, that a weapon will end up in the hands of someone who doesn't have anything to lose. If you don't have a state to lose, then what's stopping you from using a nuclear weapon? not much, if retaliation and general opprobrium from killing all your people isn't going to be your lasting legacy. It also increases the chance of someone losing a war while possessing nuclear weapons, just as an animal, backed into a corner, will fight tooth and nail to the death, won't a last ditch 'take them with me' strike be possible, nay, probable?
And, I would posit, that George Bush is not actually likely to push the button, there are too many fail safes in place for him to do so, unless there is a real first strike from somewhere else. he can't actually launch missiles, he's has to get someone else to do it for him, and that's not all that likely in a first strike scenario, against a non-nuclear powered enemy.
|