James Carville Predicts Harold Ford Jr. Will Win Senate Seat In 2006

[Jackson4Gore]

http://haroldfordjr2006.blogspot.com/

It appears there is now another well respected political expert that believes Congressman Harold Ford will win the Senate seat here in Tennessee in 2006.

This is from the Brad Blog (http://www.bradblog.com/archives/00002205.htm):

"James Carville appeared on NBC's Today Show to give his political predictions for 2006.

The Senate will make history by doubling the number of African-American senators. Senator Frist has said that he will not run for a third term. Carville predicts that Representative Harold Ford Jr. (D-TN) will win Frist's vacated Senate seat."

Once again, this is only more evidence that Harold Ford Jr. is the front runner in this race and that he has the momentum on his side.

When someone of the stature of James Carville predicts a win for Harold Ford Jr., you can take it to the bank.

Also, more good news regarding Congressman Ford's Senate race from the Associated Press.

"Despite being New York's less-famous senator, Charles Schumer stayed busy in 2005, keeping a hand _ or quote _ in almost every major congressional battle. Now he is out to prove he has the strategy to elect Senate Democrats and maybe wrest control from the Republicans.

Schumer, the head of Senate Democrats' campaign efforts, said Tuesday he is focusing on seven states where he believes they can take GOP- held Senate seats in 2006: Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, and Arizona.

"If the stars align right we could actually take back the Senate," Schumer said."

"But one political observer said Schumer's list of seven target states in 2006 may not be as far-fetched as his detractors claim.

Bruce Oppenheimer, a Vanderbilt University politics professor, said the conditions in Tennessee may be ripe for a Democratic win.

"People think this race would lean Republican, all other things being equal. But it's in play," said Oppenheimer. "For the Democrats, it's certainly doable."

Folks, this race is winnable. In fact, Ford is the front runner with the momentum right now!

Lets get this brilliant young man elected to the U.S. Senate next year!

http://fordfortennessee.com/

[Larkspur]

1. Ford is a DLC clown. I don't look forward to his "victory."

He's another Lieberman-type -- DINO.

[w13rd0]

3. I disagree...

...yes, he's DLC, and yes, he's a moderate on many social and conservative issues, but he will always get some recognition from me for being the first elected official to back McKinney in her calls for an investigation into pre911 intelligence and failures on the part of the Bush administration. Furthermore, he represents the constituency of Tennessee, a fairly conservative place these days, and a win in the Senate there would be good for us. I think he'll bend and vote more with us than against us, especially if we retake the House and Senate.

[FreedomAngel82]

23. He also was one of the first fifity

with Conyers letter and he voted against CAFTA and such. I'm not a huge Ford fan but I'm willing to give him a chance. I'll be happy with him or Kurita.

[Mz Pip]

8. Perhaps,

but it seems unlikely that someone like Barbara Boxer could get elected to the Senate in Tennessee.

I'll take a DINO like Ford over a crackpot like Frist any day.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[safi0]

9. There's a lot of

Truth to that statement. A big reason why Lieberman gets so much flack is that he's from CT, a state that Kerry carried by 10%. The other "DINO" are people like Evan Bayh, Max Baucus, Tim Johnson, and Ben Nelson who are people who respresent pretty conservative constituencies

[mitchtv]

16. I tend to agree with you,

after all, we have Dianne, out here, who has suddenly become useful. My reaction, however, rather than "RA RA"; has been "HO HUM". He beats the alternative.

[rockymountaindem]

21. That doesn't matter

More people with (D) next to their name empowers the other Democrats no matter what. In addition, since we're desperate for some wins, I'll take what we can get. We need to reverse the idea that Democrats are losers. People and parties that look like winners tend to win more and more.

But I don't know what else to expect from you. You bash Democrats any chance you get. I'd like to get a copy of your litmus test, but you'd better send it before they raise the price of stamps because I'd wager it's pretty hefty.

[Larkspur]

42. I primarily bash DLC-type Dems, like Lieberman

I'm the secretary of my town's Dem Committee. I don't bash Dems lightly. When I do it's for a good reason.

I find Ford too conservative for my support, but if TN Dems want him, then support him.

[erpowers]

46. Me Too

I am also not that happy about Ford Jr. winning a Senate seat. The one good thing about this is that the Democrats will be one step closer to getting control of the Senate.

[acmejack]

2. Well, I sure hope he does

But Carville's prognostication record has been a tad spotty lately...

[AtomicKitten]

4. I like Harold Ford, Jr.

Isn't he the one that lunged down the aisle calling bullshit on the Republicans' attack on Murtha?

[kath]

6. He did show some spine that time, but most of the time he's just a

spineless fence-sitter like most of the rest of 'em.
Repug-lite.

[FreedomAngel82]

24. Was that him?

I remember watching that and hearing someone scream and shout out against Schmidt and the republicans on that whole evening. I remember the speaker said a guy from Tennessee but didn't catch the name. Anybody have a video of that?

[AtomicKitten]

26. yep, it was Harold.

Rep. Harold Ford, D-Tenn., charged across the chamber's center aisle screaming that it was an uncalled for personal attack.

from: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/11/18/ap/politics/mainD8DV5S608.shtml

[jbnow]

45. I loved that

He is usually so gentle and soft-spoken, even when his words are very strong. The southern gentleman. To see him leaping from his seat, jumping the barrier and running and shouting in protest was great.

He was interviewed on a couple shows between that incident and returning for the vote an hour later, he was speaking more softly again but his eyes were just flaming.

I have always liked this man. He is thoughtful and intelligent in his talking, he is not a spinner. I don't agree with everything but he is one of my favorites.

He quit being the party darling when he considered running for the leader position for the minority, breaking tradition since it was not his turn.

[tnlefty]

51. As a Stephanie Miller fan you know that's Schmidthead or Schmidtface!

And yes, it was Ford, Jr.;-)

[butterfly77]

5. Another undercover Repug...

who sucks up every chance he gets.

[snowbear]

20. So Butterfly would rather see the ReTHUG win?

Why does that not surprise me all that much?


~~~~ GO HAROLD FORD, JR. !!!!! ~~~~

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Southsideirish]

10. I have no respect for Ford or Carville. n/t

[snowbear]

19. I respect BOTH of them..... GO Harold Ford, Jr....

Once in a blue moon, Carville ticks me off.. but most of the time, he's ok by me!

Rock on HF Jr!! ~~~ BEAT THE CRAP OUT OF THE REPUBLICAN IDIOTS !!!!!!

[wiley]

11. Good!

He'll make a great Senator from Tennessee. So he's a little conservative compared to some other Democrats.

[FreedomAngel82]

25. He does listen to people

I remember Jackson4Gore posted about how when CAFTA was going on he voted against it and it was because people voiced out to him. So he does listen. My chance of a republican listening to me actually is pretty slim now days.

[safi0]

12. Sometimes I wonder

If people on DU even want the Dems to take back the House and/or Senate. Were not going to get Barbara Boxers elected in every state and TN is one of those states. Would you really rather have a wingnut like Ed Bryant or Van Hilleary to win this seat?

[NJ Democrats]

13. I agree

Would you guys like to have Frist more than Ford, a Dem? Of course not!

[safi0]

15. I consider myself

Very Liberal. I agree with Barbara Boxer and Russ Feingold a lot more than I do with Ford. But, I also agree with Ford a lot more than I do with Frist or whatever wingnut would replace Frist if Ford loses.

[snowbear]

18. Boy Oh Boy.. do I ever agree with you. --GO HAROLD FORD, JR !!!

Beat the CRAP out of whoever the hell the dipshit Republican is!!!

I don't give a flying )&^%# whether Ford is DLC, DNC, DCCC, or whatever other D's there are...

What matters is that he is a DEMOCRAT and he is our best chance of taking that seat!!!

[ISUGRADIA]

52. I wonder that too the way many Democratic candidates are

attacked here for not being pure and left on every issue despite the states they live in. I think if these purists advice was taken we'd be down to about 35 Senate seats and 160 House seats.

But damn it, there would be no "DINOs"!

[LittleClarkie]

14. If Hillary gets the nom, will Carville be part of her campaign?

If he is, it shall be interesting to see what happens to her campaign and how successful, or not successful, she is. It will either add another page to his legend, or show once and for all that he was a one trick pony.

[AtomicKitten]

22. The War Room beat the GOP at their own game.

They answered their below-the-belt attacks quick and with gusto, precisely the way the Swift Boat Liars should have been dealt with.

[LittleClarkie]

28. My focus was more on whether or not it is still "the economy, stupid"

I think that the Clintonistas were dead wrong in that regard when they advised Kerry to switch from National Security to the economy. We needed to hit the Republicans at their strongest. People who were more concerned with the economy already knew which one to vote for. It was the 9/11 people who needed to know that a Democrat could defend the nation. When Kerry gave his NY University speech in late September he started gaining momentum. When he won the first debate on a subject that was supposed to be his weakest but which is instead his strongest, he gained as well.

Then there was Hillary's rumored advice to Kerry to vote for IWR, or else he wouldn't get the nom.

Then there was also Bill's reported advice to Kerry that he should come out in favor of DOMA, as it would be a big issue in the election. It does seem to have been a big issue, but to ask the man to sell his soul for votes was wrong. Kerry rightly said it was something he could never do.

I'm not so sure the Clinton's are as golden as people think they are, election-wise. But I could be wrong. If Hillary gets the nom, and then wins the election, I'll grill up some crow.

[AtomicKitten]

30. I wasn't aware the Clintons had any input.

What's your source? I'd be curious to explore that.

I absolutely agree National Security was #1 and Kerry could have slammed Bush with it.

[LittleClarkie]

32. I just remember the influx of Clintonistas during the campaign, and

there was a phone call to Kerry just before Clinton went into surgery.

I rememember it was said that Clinton told Kerry to stop emphasizing Vietnam so much (good advice) and go with the issue that differentiates the Dems from the Repubs, namely the economy.(bad advice) Carville, who popped into the Kerry campaign for a while, said we needed a narrative (good advice) but if I recall correctly also said they needed to emphasize the economy (bad advice.)

Some of this is just what I remember from living through it. I don't remember exactly where I got the info. But some of it I think I got from the Newsweek report, and from reading here.

I'll go and see if I can find it.

[AtomicKitten]

34. maybe the whole thing is just a fuzzy bad dream to me!

[snowbear]

17. I think he'll win too Jackson, and I hope he does !!! Oh, and btw....

it's great to see you on here again!!

You don't drop by much these days..

Well.. either that or you're only on here when I'm not? http://eliteleague.co.uk/forum/images/smilies/lol!.gif

[Jackson4Gore]

39. Thanks!!!

Thanks for the words!

I have been really busy of late. With college and politics, I am pretty much swamped. It is always great to come back to folks like you though!

[UrbScotty]

27. Could he run on Bredesen's coattails?

Or would that be bad politically?

[AntiCoup2K4]

29. I suppose a mildly delusional DLC moonie beats a full on catkilling psycho

....but it's not really anything I could get excited about.

[snowbear]

31. Yep... I think you're right AC!

~~~~~ ~~~~~

Go for it HF, Jr! ~~~

[quiet.american]

33. Howdy, J4G, was wondering where you've been! :)

(I'll admit I did like how Rep. Ford called horse-hockey on Schmidt).

[Jackson4Gore]

38. Thanks, great to hear from you as well!

Been really busy with college, politics, and just staying on the run!

[fujiyama]

35. I'm far from the biggest Ford fan

but this is freakin TN we're talking about. Kerry lost it by double digits.

If a Dem can win statewide (even a right of center Dem like Ford), that's hope.

[BluegrassDem]

36. Who cares if Ford is not liberal enough?

A black getting elected in a southern state is HUGE! It would be bigger than the Obama win. Besides, we have to remember that he's gonna be voting for Harry Reid to be the Senate Majority Leader in 2007, so there's no better reason to support him.

[wiley]

37. Welcome to DU!

:patriot:

[skipos]

40. The more (D)s, the merrier. I don't care if he is a moderate.

It is TN afterall.

[The Backlash Cometh]

41. No offense, but I think the verdict is still out on whether Carville

is a well-respected political expert. Well, okay, he's a political expert. But how will we feel about him once we find out that he held out on information that could have taken Bush down prior to the 2004 election because it meant his wife might suffer the same consequences?

Sorry, but he made a bad choice in marriage and his political expert credentials are tainted if he can't be completely loyal to the party.

[AtomicKitten]

43. some slack please.

Carville is very happily married; how can that be a bad choice? Granted his wife is a partisan Republican, but that hardly constitutes a "bad choice" when they have two beautiful daughters and are happy.

Carville is a straight-shooter. I don't think being candid makes him disloyal to the party.

IMO.

[The Backlash Cometh]

44. What did Carville know and when did he know it?

If you're serious about winning, then the people who are influencing the public and the candidates need to be completely open. No conflicts of interest, no secrets.

Which also means that the next Democratic candidate who hires consultants from a lawfirm that is also consulting Republican candidates is going to get personally bitch slapped by me.

[AtomicKitten]

55. I'd argue the point but this divisiveness is justified. n/t

[Lasher]

47. Thanks for posting this encouraging development

Please consider this http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash05a.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs">WSJ poll dated November 7, 2005. It predicts a pickup of 2 Senate seats, with 3 races (all against Democratic incumbents) too close to call. Even assuming the benefit of the doubt, this would leave us with a 2007 Senate makeup of 53 repukes, 46 Democrats, and 1 independent. This ain't good enough! We're not playing horse shoes or hand grenades.

As you have advised, Schumer thinks we have a chance in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, and Arizona.

Neither Rhode Island nor Montana is even listed as a battleground state in the WSJ poll. Missouri, Tennessee, & Arizona all show the race going to the repuke incumbent.

I sure hope Carville's right.

[The Donkey]

48. Don't forget Mississippi of all places . . . .

Political Wire reported this week that Trent Lott is leaning toward retiring in Mississippi, and that the likely replacement for him should he do so would be the former state Attorney General, Mike Moore (not to be confused with Michael Moore the filmmaker).

So let's hope old Racy McRacsim retires as well.

[Lasher]

49. Will you help in the Research Forum?

Donkey,

It doesn't look like anyone is yet pitching in on http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=358&topic_id=1684&mesg_id=1684">Mississippi. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=358">Here is a link to the index. Check out the US Senate races, since we've been discussing that. Campaign Underground is shaping up nicely as a valuable resource.

If you decide to jump in, and if you want help getting started, shoot me a private message.

Lasher

[The Donkey]

54. To be honest,

I'm not even from Mississippi - I live in Arizona. I just found the story on Political Wire and thought it would add to the discussion here, since Mississippi wasn't on the list of potential turnover states.

I'd like to check out the state indexes, but for some reason I'm not able to access the links in the body of your message - I'll try checking in the Research Forum directly.

[safi0]

57. The thing about

MS is that the compeitiveness of the race is dependent on Lott retiring. If he retires this race goes from solid Repub to toss-up. If he doesn't it stays solid Repub

[tnlefty]

53. What? TN won't be going to the repuke incumbent 'cause FrankenFrist

isn't running and it is his seat that will be the focus of this fight.

[nickshepDEM]

50. I really hope Ford wins. I think he would be a great senator, but I

have my doubts about him actually winning. TN has been drifting further and further right over the past couple election cycles.

Hopefully his star-power coupled w/ a bloody Republican primary will push him over the top.

[incapsulated]

56. I hate Ford, but I want him to win

Right now, beggars can't be choosers. We need every seat we can get. We are in the minority in both houses.