McCain Will Be The Republican Nominee In '08

[ruggerson]

I had long thought he might not make it through the primaries, but he has tacked way over to the right the last two years, called a truce with BushCo and made all the right noises to placate the hard right who control the primary process.

Most of all, Republicans almost always nominate whomever is perceived as "next in line." Which is why Dole, an abysmal candidate, got the nod in 96 - he had the seniority and the resume.

If McCain is indeed the Republican nominee, there's only one way to beat him: nominate someone who has absolutely nothing to do with Washington D.C.

If we nominate a sitting Senator, or former Senator, we lose. McCain is far too popular.

If we nominate an outsider, such as Warner, Schweitzer, Richardson, Clark, Breseden, etc., we stand a very good chance of beating McCain, as his weakness lies in his long resume as a Washington insider, with a whiff of scandal and corruption in his past (Keating 5.)

Our candidate has to be able to be framed as the solution, a fresh face, not part of the problem. The problem is in DC. If we nominate a reformer from outside the beltway, we stand a very good chance of being in good spirits on Inauguration Day, 2009.

Oh, and Happy Thanksgiving. :P

[iamjoy]

1. Not Richardson Then

he was Secretary of Energy under Clinton. He was Secretary of Energy when the Chinese got some of our nuclear secrets.

I think Richardson has a lot of good qualities, but not against McCain.

[DanCa]

2. Mccain vs Clark - we can chew mccains voting record apart.

Sauce for the goose.

[woldnewton]

21. Actually, I was thinking...

Feingold, but Clark might work as well.

[ruggerson]

24. Warner/Feingold

You get a southern governor with a proven record of reform. No baggage from DC. And you get a midwesterner as Veep who can stand toe to toe with Mccain on campaign finance reform, as they authored the bill with each other.

Warner/Feingold would win handily in traditionally blue states and would stand more than a good chance of picking up a few southern/midwestern light red ones as well.

[still_one]

3. you are leaving chuck hagel out of the picture

in addition, mccain is NOT a well man

Just look at him, especially the on the face where he had melanoma

Frankly, as long as we concentrate on getting labor back in, we will be unbeatable

Look at California as an example. Every one of the govenors propositions went down to defeat because of labor

Labor is pissed at what the repukes have done, including trying to destroy their unions

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

4. You might be right.

By the time the nomination process comes around, he may well have bestowed enough oral favors on "the right folks".

Right now, he's working on getting his score up.

[charlyvi]

5. I think Obama could do it.

Even though he is a sitting Senator. I think he'll have enough experience by then; if not, what he lacks in experience he more that makes up for in brains. He stands apart from the rest of the party--he has that wierd glow of political savvy about him, as Clinton did. Even as FDR did. I think we need someone like him--not too connected to the political establishment, but someone all Americans can identify with.

[calimary]

23. A Clark/Obama ticket might be JUST the ticket...

Obama doesn't yet have the seasoning to run for the big one. But in a few more years, or another Senate term, or maybe he moves from the Senate to the governor's house... he'll be a MOST appetizing prospect. Besides, second place on the ticket would position him beautifully for the big one in the future. I like him so far. I'd work my tail off for him if he does.

PLUS - Obama also has that elusive "X-factor." He has perceived luster, glamour, star power. He was officially crowned a star when he gave the keynote speech at the convention last year and did rawther nicely, thank you very much. That's what propelled arnold to the top in California and, albeit briefly, to the inside track with the GOP - until he proved just how big a nincompoop he is. arnold doesn't have what it takes to back that star power with ANY substance at all. Obama, on the other hand, DOES. Plus, he's got that smile and that extremely delightful and pleasing personality. The camera loves him, and he knows how to play to it. Superficial as all hell, I know, but in this day and age, it counts like CRAZY with a lot of voters (who are, themselves, HORRIBLY superficial). A little grey at the temples and he'll be picture-perfect.

The point here, guys, is this: WE, the DEMS, have BENCH STRENGTH. We have a wealth of interesting people coming up. Obama's in the PREMIERE position. Also, we have Mark Warner of Virginia, Hillary, WESLEY CLARK (!!!!!) AND, let's not forget JOHN EDWARDS (!!!!!!) who, it appears, is out getting "seasoned" outside the Beltway for awhile. I think he's positioning himself with his advocacy for the poor and his foundation work, plus that huge ongoing email campaign - and, I believe, podcasting now, too. PLUS such other women as Janet Napolitano and Jennifer Granholm. We MIGHT even eventually have another Kennedy if RFK Junior ever decided he wanted to do something bigger. And yes, there IS Russ Feingold, and also John Kerry - although I'm not sure many would want to stomach more swift boat swifties. And if I see that weenie sourpuss john o'neill getting any more face time, I think I'll vomit all over my TV. NOTHING is worth that.

The republi-CONS have virtually nobody. All their "hot prospects" are damaged goods or has-beens to some extent. Like - uh - the embarrassingly hapless bill frist. Uh-HUH, like I really want THAT fuck-up in charge of MY strategy and tactics. arnold is already a has-been. Romney in Massachusetts isn't perfect, either, nor is that horrendous two-dimensional Stepford governor in Colorado. Giuliani? Well, MAYBE. But he's a social liberal on too many topics that most of the GOP thugs can't ever get behind - like abortion (he's pro-choice - THAT alone will take Hagel out of the running with much of the GOP al Qaeda) and personal sleaze (just wait - when/if he's a candidate - for the commercials highlighting how he tried so hard to move his mistress into the mayor's mansion WHILE HIS NOT-YET-EXWIFE AND KIDS WERE STILL LIVING THERE. I'd like to see the Xtian Wrong choke THAT one down! And as for dear little jebbie - I suspect strongly that by the time we're through with his brother george, the name "bush" won't get you a can of Bush Beans anymore, anywhere. If it IS jebbie - he, unlike his brother, IS a signatory of the PNAC, so we'd have to fight LIKE CRAZY. But I think the entire family bush will be rendered utterly toxic for however long it takes radioactivity in general to leach out of the system. And we'll need to repeatedly SAY that's so, also. Perception-perception-perception.

[goclark]

40. Clark /Obama would get my vote

I am so tired of having idiots in the WH.
Bush and Cheney and Colin etc. had EXPERIENCE but they are also so rigid.


They were all straight up and down thinkers, except for Bush who doesn't think at all.

One thing obout Clark/Obama is they can figure it out, what ever the situation.


Obama has more IQ than Bush ever had in his little finger.

The main reason that Clinton was so good was that he was compassionate but he was also brilliant.

Also, we need people that can represent us AROUND the World!
It is such an embarassment to see Cheney sitting on the front row looking like he is attending a football game.

They have NO class, none and it makes a huge difference.

Obama and Clark are able to see the World View not a narrow view.

Put Obama in there and it also sends a strong message to those that are not White and Wealthy that they too are valued in America.

I have met Clark and he is one of the most decent/BRILLIANT human beings on the face of this earth.


Love it and would work night and day to get them elected.

[Maggie_May]

6. If these were my choices

it would be Clark.

[Jara sang]

7. No way, McCain is totally beatable.

All we have to do is demoralize him like Bush did and we win. McCain is a panty waist.

[DanCa]

9. Plus mccain isn't a bible belt conservative

Theres no way he'd get the nom or the chimps base wouldnt bother showing up

[asjr]

12. McCain just might beat himself. Dems should use

that picture of him trying to get his little short arms around Shrub's waist at a rally and that alone would do him in. The Two Faces of John McCain would be the caption.

[ewagner]

8. The nomination has been bought and paid for

as far as McCain is concerned. He's paid his dues to Bush* and the political machine which Bush/Rove own has been purchased by McCain with his soul.

Now come the questions:

Can McCain's health hold out long enough to collect his hard-earned prize?

Will Dubya and Rove honor their committment or will they "stiff" McCain?

Can Dubya and KKKarl still control the party or will Hagel steal away the faithful by distancing the party from Dubya's screwups?

Stay tuned.

This is going to be interesting.

:popcorn: :popcorn: :popcorn:

[rosesaylavee]

10. Republicans will continue to implode and further

divide themselves between the fundies and the old time conservatives. McCain doesn't fit into either group and his placating the * admin will not serve him in the long run... Or so I predict.

[unblock]

11. not so sure about the 'next in line' thing

both parties tend to nominate the 'next in line' guy but only when they're up against a formidable opponent. or, of course, an incumbent prez or veep is a near shoe-in.

think mondale vs. reagan, e.g.

but was carter the next in line in '76? was reagan next in line in '80?

[ruggerson]

15. Of course Reagan was next in line in 80

Remember who almost beat Gerald Ford for the nomination in 76? Reagan got so close that Ford was going to have him as Veep and be "Co-Presidents".

Republicans tend to nominate the sitting or former Vice Prez or Vice Prez candidate (Bush, Nixon, Dole, Ford) or the guy who came closest last time around (Reagan). McCain fits the bill as someone with great seniority in the party and on the hill and he also came in second last time around.

Dan Quayle is about the only one who doesn't fit this model, but he's... well... Dan Quayle.

[unblock]

19. quayle was never a prez nominee, only veep

i guess you're right about reagan, he certainly was #2 in '76. 'next in line' didn't seem right though, because even republicans back then were dismissing reagan as an extremist trying to take over the party. after ford won, the republican establishment was not saying reagan would get his chance next time, they were saying thank god reagan is finished.

little did they know that it was the decent moderate republicans who were finished....

[Yupster]

37. Carter was an exceptional story in 76

He started working for the nomination years before anyone else and he had an unusual strategy.

In Iowa he visited teachers groups all around the state. It turned out to be a tremendous strategy. Since he had so much time he could go district by district and he had something valuable to promise -- a Federal Department of Education.

When caucus night arrived, Carter's showing proved his strategy worked wonders and he parlayed his new found celebrity into a New Hampshire win though he only got 28 % in a crowded field.

I give Carter a lot of credit for coming up with a new formula for winning the nomination. It worked. I also give Howard Dean similar kudos for developing his own new formula though his didn't work this time.

[GardeningGal]

13. I agree with the other posters talking about his health

Last time I saw him on tv I thought he looked terrible. Also, isn't he in his early 70's right now? I think his age will become an issue also.

[globalvillage]

16. I saw him in person last week.

He looks bad.
Although I do think he will be the nominee. An intern from Sen Specter's office told me he was pretty certain of it. It's the buzz, anyway.
That said, '08 is a long way off.

[Vinca]

29. The right side of his face seems to be larger every time I see him

on the news and his color is awful. Maybe he won't run. Some things - like spending time with family - are more important.

[KingFlorez]

14. No, He doesn't fit the 700 club mold

He's not crazy enough for the fundies

[DemGirl7]

28. but he is starting to kiss up to them...

I believe I read on here a few weeks ago that McCain meet with Falwell, and you know that Falwell along with Robertson and Dobson will help him to win over the 700 club crowd.

[DemFromMem]

17. Brownback

Of all the candidates being discussed, the Kansas Senator is the only one who actually talks the language the Christian right wants to hear. If they have the power in the GOP - and I think they do - he's very likely to be the one that appeals to that group.

Pataki, Guiliana, Gingrich, Rice and McCain are all going to be found unacceptable because they won't pass the religious litmus test. With the exception of Pataki and Gingrich, these folks might have a good shot at winning the general election, but I would think they're in trouble when it comes to getting the nomination.

[adriennui]

25. brownback is one of the scariest

senators. he's to the right of falwell and would never get the nomination in the GOP primaries. in a general election he's radioactive. he's a laughing stock to most normal people.....lot's of weird stories about him as well.

[DemFromMem]

27. True, but we thought the same thing about Bush

I mean, really, how could thinking people vote for this boob - twice!

Brownback is scary on most things. He does, however, have one of the most liberal voting records in the Senate on immigration issues and this is to his credit. This is based on his religious beliefs (welcoming the stranger, etc.). But basing public policy on religious beliefs is obviously dangerous in other contexts.

[AX10]

18. Clark/Obama will kick McCain's little Neo-Con ass back to..

his dust farm.

:kick:

[lovelaureng]

20. I'm not too sure if McCain

can pull off the next presidential election. I could be wrong about it. Hagel seemed more moderate for being a repub, scary as that is to say.

[TheCowsCameHome]

22. He's going nowhere. The Repugs will sink him themselves.

Look what happened in '00....................

[RDANGELO]

26. McCain can be beaten.

McCain can be beaten by anyone who can say this: Senator McCain join me in this pledge, NO MORE IRAQS, AND ADMIT YOUR VOTE FOR THE IRAQ WAR WAS A MISTAKE. If Hillary or Biden are the nominee, we lose.

[Donna Zen]

39. And that is why the MSM-GOP want Hillary

The problem is their base. They need that base, which is larger than ours, to come out in force. And yet, they need to run someone more acceptable to the middle and independents. What to do? It is so easy: get the Democrats to run Hillary who allows the republicans to run any damn person they chose. They could put a moderate woman in the vp slot and clean our clocks without Diebold. It is a wonderous plan, and to date, the Democrats seem quite willing to let them have their way.

McCain or Hagel with plenty of defense/foreign policy credentials and a moderate image. Crispy Todd Whitman on the bottom of the ticket. They can get away with it only with Hillary in the top spot. The DLC is doing all they can to make it so. DLC=Got Money=buy the nomination.

[Crunchy Frog]

30. I personally doubt it.

It really doesn't matter how far right he tacks. He's hated by the far right. He's not going to get it the way Dole did either, by being "next in line". The Repuke party is far more ideological than it was in '96. Dole was a sacrificial lamb anyway. I think the Repukes pretty much knew that Clinton was going to win reelection, so they could afford to go with someone who they really didn't care about. They'll be playing for keeps in '08.

Finally, I don't agree that McCain would be difficult to beat if he did get the nomination. He's getting awfully old. He has sort of scent of weakness about him, and he would not rally the Repuke base. We would have a pretty good chance of beating him as long as we don't rally the Repuke base by nominating Hillary.

[radio4progressives]

31. Just heard on C-Span that Mc Cain might run as an "Independent"

Watching a panel discussion on JFK, RFK, and MLK - I think it was JFK's former aide that said it in response to a question regarding problems with our political system today (in the context how LBJ brought on the Death Nil for the Democratic Party in 1965 - with the Voting Rights Act. Ever since then, the DP has been suffering from a severe backlash from the South who were Democrats for two centuries but turned Republican following that act)

McCain is not "beloved" by the southerners. But a lot of so called "moderate" dems like him and Goldwater Repubs types respect him. So, I see the wisdom of him running as an "Independent".

I've been hoping certain DP members to consider running run as a Progressive Independent, but knowing that isn't likely, had hoped that maybe DLC (DINOS) would at least do both themselves and the DP a huge service by changing party affiliation so that the American Public can bring in honest choices.

We also need to abolish the Electoral College system, but that's another discussion.

Anyway the former JFK aide, said (referring to McCain running as an Independent)"you heard it here first".

It will be interesting to see if McCain does that and the effects of that kind of action.

[Dulcinea]

34. I hope he does.

He'll divide the Republican vote.

[0007]

32. The right wing hates McCain as much as they do Hillary. n/t

[radio4progressives]

33. Virginia is too close to the Beltway...

I don't think Warner is a good choice, and he doesn't have that kind of power in his message. I'm not even sure what his message is, or what he stands for even after listening to him for a couple of hours on C-Span.

[hollowdweller]

35. Just run the pic of him hugging Bush over and over

[win_in_06]

43. so the fundies and Bushbots will get behind him?

I think where we can hurt him is amongst fundies so I don't know if that is a good strategy.

[saltpoint]

36. McCain is a pretty good chance but not a lock.

If the Far Right continues to bray like jackasses over stem cell research, intelligent design, and same-sex marriage, it may be easier for McCain to win the nomination because the Deep Red voter would prefer a flagrant psychopath like Sam Brownback or even that cretinous asshole from Alabama -- Judge Moore. Someone like that from well under the bleechers. And in the past, the extremists have risen to the fray -- Pat Robertson in Iowa and Pat Buchanan in New Hampshire.

You'd have a scenario in Iowa where McCain wins the GOP caucus with Brownback finishing a "strong" second. Both campaigns weaken the other and the party is split almost from the start, fundraising is tougher, and the press is not in line.

McCain knows Rove and Dubya smeared his character in South Carolina in 2000 but there the old fool was anyway, out on the stump last fall, pumping the crowds for the incumbent. I'm real sick of right-wing folks running the show and I'm going to work against any McCain campaign in favor of the Democrfatic ticket.

After 8 years of abject failure in both domestic and foreign policy, I'm not sure even a "hero" like McCain can convince voters to retain the services of the GOP.

[terrya]

38. McCain is too damn old.

Nope. Just for age reasons alone.

[Nimrod2005]

41. You have to be honest, McCain is not!!!

[win_in_06]

42. I don't see how we can beat McCain. Now there's the McCain Amendment

so he can seperate himself from the worst of the Bush days.

[ncteechur]

44. McCain isn't just going to waltz to the nomination...

I am looking forward to a mean-spirited, lower than low, shit kicking, slap your mama, nasty Republican primary season. The other candidates know what Bush did to beat McCain and many of them will do the same thing--play dirty and cheat. I'm sure there are more Roves out there looking to make their mark on the game. Expect everything and discount nothing.

[ToeBot]

46. Didn't Bush agree to lease Rove to McCain before the 04 convention...

that's why McCain was hugging his sorry ass. Besides, 'Jeb' wasn't going to need him until some 'unspecified' later date; couldn't have him sitting in a garage unused and rusting. Anyway McCain will be the candidate, even Republicans aren't that stupid, twice. What, Mitt Romney? I laugh every time someone says that out loud.

[d_b]

45. The 'new' Republican party candidate.

I can hear the bullshit already. Will the public fall for it?

[skidrow]

47. Look at McCain's Candidacy

from a wingnut perspective. He voted against ANWR, for campaign finance reform, for the Gang of 12 to compromise on judges. He actually has a small bit of sensibility! Needless to say, he will not be nominated. George Allen will and will go down to a crushing defeat to (Wes Clark, Mark warner, Hillary Clinton, undetermined) in 2008. Oh yea, and fuck Santorum.