I think the Kerry campaign used a classic "rope a dope" strategy to win

[NNN0LHI]

They saved their money, people, and other resources for the final push in Iowa and NH. It had to be difficult to do being down as much in the polling as they were too. But they held back and laid in the weeds and then when they seen the whites in their eyes they let it rip. It appears to be a good strategy. It might take Kerry all the way to the White House. I am surprised as anyone.

Don

[Ninga]

1. Interesting perspective

but Don, I think the "rope a dope" really took place inside the caucus rooms.

[boxster]

2. That doesn't explain a 20% loss.

I doubt that anyone would be able to "convince" a huge segment of the Iowa public to change their minds after arriving at the caususes, especially considering that the latest polls showed Kerry surging.

Keep in mind that Kerry's result in Iowa was double that of Dean, and Edwards pulled another 32%. There is more at play here than convincing people to vote for Kerry in the causus rooms.

[kodi]

3. hardly. it was jean shaheen's ability to get NH dems to go for kerry

i think your analysis is wrong, and so misguided as to be dangerous, because it makes kerry and his national campaign out to be more than they are.

Jean Shaheen, the popular governor of NH, mobilized the rank and file democratic party faithful, and her own political machine in NH to support kerry.

lewis and clark had Sacagawea and kerry had shaheen and her husband in NH, the latter who were able to call in their markers and they used them for kerry's campaign push in the state.

without shaheen's support and efforts, kerry would have come in third or fourth.

but more to the point of why i disagree with the original analysis; it is unlikely that kerry will find another local politician supporting him in the subsequent primaries and caucases who could do what shaheen did for his campaign efforts in NH.

so it is dangerous to expect kerry to do in say missouri with rank and file democrats what he (shaheen) did in NH.

[sangh0]

4. I really doubt

that anyone can explain what happened in NH without taking Iowa into account. I doubt that Shahhen had much affect in Iowa.

[ibegurpard]

5. Don't be so sure.

"it is unlikely that kerry will find another local politician supporting him in the subsequent primaries and caucases who could do what shaheen did for his campaign efforts in NH.

so it is dangerous to expect kerry to do in say missouri with rank and file democrats what he (shaheen) did in NH."

Gephardt didn't fall on his sword for nothing.

[xray s]

6. I think Kerry out-organized them

The enthusiasm of Dean supporters is fantastic, but I think they fell into the "carpetbagger" trap in Iowa.

I think Kerry shored up the support of local county / township Democratic leaders and so you had neighbors calling neighbors about Kerry. I think in the end the persuasive abilities of your neighbor down the street are much stronger than someone calling you fom their cell phone in L.A.

The rotten 'latte drinkers' ad just rammed this home.

Dean had an opportunity to reverse things in NH, where he had good local coverage, but "the Scream" buried his message.