New Poll Confirms Pattern: Dean Viewed Inevitable, Bush Landslide Looms

[WiseMen]

The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll confirms a pattern has been consistent since the beginning of polling on this question: Governor Howard Dean is consistently seen as relatively week in a head-to-head against George W. Bush. This despite the fact that Bush administration is pretty much viewed as a disaster.
In an early test of strength, 55 percent of those surveyed said that if the election were held today, they would vote to reelect the president, and 37 percent said they would favor Dean.

WashPost/ABC
12/20/03
-----------------------------------Bush--55-----------Dean----37

Past national polls, which asked more head-to-head questions, showed repeatedly that Dean fares much worse against Bush than Senator John Kerry or General Wesley Clark.

WashPost/ABC
11/02/03
-----------------------------------Bush--54-----------Dean----39
-----------------------------------Bush--51-----------Clark----40
-----------------------------------Bush--50-----------Kerry----44

USAT/CNN/Gallup
9/21/03
-----------------------------------Bush--49-----------Dean----46
-----------------------------------Bush--46-----------Clark----49
-----------------------------------Bush--47-----------Kerry----48

Dean’s lack of military and foreign policy experience is at least vaguely understood by the public at large. “ …when asked in the poll whether they trusted the president or Dean more to handle national security and the war on terrorism, 67 percent said Bush and 21 percent Dean. “

By and large, the democratic voter does not know Howard Dean, but they have effectively been “signaled” by media attention and the Gore endorsement that Dean is the inevitable Democratic Nominee, and they will support him though fairly convinced that he will not win the Presidency.

This is a tragedy for our times. The Bush regime has been such a disaster that the 2004 election should have been a Democratic landslide. By this time in the process the primary front-runner should have been a party standard-bearer with a double-digit lead over Bush.

Fritz Hollings bemoaned that fact that Democratic Senators had been “had, hood-winked, bamboozled” into the IWR vote. Now, it is the Democratic voters that are being had, hoodwinked and bamboozled, and by forces that appear beyond our control.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22493-2003Dec22.html

Bush Gets Year-End Boost in Approval
Poll Shows Dean Surging Among Democratic Rivals
By Dan Balz and Richard Morin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, December 23, 2003; Page A01


Excerpts

.................

The poll also shows former Vermont governor Howard Dean surging ahead of his rivals in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination, cementing his status as the party's front-runner a month before the first major contests, in Iowa and New Hampshire. But when matched against the president, Dean fares badly, both in a hypothetical trial heat and on who is trusted to handle both national security and domestic issues. Even many Democrats said they still know little about Dean or his views.

The poll findings show why many Democrats are nervous about Dean as a potential candidate against Bush. They also underscore the concern within the party that, because of the heavily front-loaded primary and caucus calendar, a Democratic nominee may effectively be picked before party activists outside a few early states have had a chance to evaluate the candidates and participate in the decision.

..................

But Dean's strength against his rivals masks how little Democratic voters know about him. More than half of Democrats surveyed said they know "hardly anything" or "nothing" about Dean's experience, leadership capabilities or positions on the issues.

The Post-ABC poll suggests that Dean's recent surge has come disproportionately from Democrats who do not closely identify with their party. In mid-October, Dean claimed the support of one in six Democratic-leaning independents and an equal proportion of party rank and file. Today, he gets significantly more support from independent Democrats (35 percent) than he does from party faithful (26 percent).
As a candidate in the general election, Dean starts well behind Bush in the public's estimation. In an early test of strength, 55 percent of those surveyed said that if the election were held today, they would vote to reelect the president, and 37 percent said they would favor Dean. No other Democrat was tested against Bush in the Post-ABC poll.

Dean's Democratic rivals have warned that the former governor's lack of foreign policy experience would hurt him in a general election against Bush, and when asked in the poll whether they trusted the president or Dean more to handle national security and the war on terrorism, 67 percent said Bush and 21 percent Dean. Even on the kind of domestic issues that normally favor Democrats, such as Social Security, health care and education, Bush bests Dean by 50 percent to 39 percent.

[thinkahead]

1. you all realize this is about name

recognition right?

Things will change, dramatically, once the nomination is sown up.

[ibegurpard]

2. Not only that but in the polls posted as "proof"

Bush wins in landslide against all or all are very close. The poll discussed in detail shows Dean attracting independent Democrats or Democrats not very closely aligned with the party.

[bearfartinthewoods]

69. yeah, but watch what happens to

"atleast vaguely understood by the public " when rove starts in on him.

[MontyHudspeth]

83. Former Independant Bush Supporter wants to know why I should vote Dem?

I have to admit that I voted for Bush in the last election but have become increasingly of the opinion that Bush does not have the best interest of the Country at heart.

His support of the Farm Bill, Education Bill, Energy Bill (defunct), Medicare Act, have left me more than a little disappointed in the actions of this President.

The last straw was the implementing of the "Free Speech Zones." I thought that the whole country was a "Free Speech Zone!"

So having said that what do the Dem candidates have to draw an Independant Moderate into the fold?

My candidate should:


1. Whether he supported the initial war in Iraq be dedicated to keeping our troops In-Country until an exit strategy can be implemented which honors the sacrifice of those who have served, secures Iraq as an allie and stabilizes the area. (with or without the UN)

2. Tax Cut....Who cares....We are going to have to pay one way or another. As a Texan we are still paying for one set of Bush Tax cuts and loopholes for corporations to do business in the state. If it means raising taxes to enable colleges, and services to continue..so be it.

3. Gun Control...full support for Brady.

4. Pro - Choice vs. Pro - Life: Pro-Choice is the law! As long as education is available to the patient regarding both sides of the issue no problem. However, parental consent for minors..A MUST! We have to give consent for everything regarding our children why should abortion be any different. Would like to see clinics offer more information on alternatives (adoption)

5. Prayer in school: An absolute right of every individual. Should NOT be an institution. I would object to state supported prayer of religions which I am not an adherant. Therefore quiet time is acceptable as a time reflection etc.

6. Environment: Who is going to support Windmill Farms, Hybrid Cars, reasonble use of resources (logging), reasonble restrictions on park recreation (curfew for riding snow sleds in National Parks vs. total ban) Kyodo Accords is not a live or die issue for me. Seems more of the advanced countries do not support this measure than do. Basically everything in reason and the goal of renewal concerning the environment. Fossil fuels will NOT be around forever.

7. Which candidate will have the best interest of the traditional family in mind. Today there seems to be a never ending attack against traditional families and a total lack of support by the Government for middle class family structure.

As you can see I am not a one issue voter. And I will certainly not leave a candidate because he / she does not support all my concerns. As long as the candidate has a position and the guts to stay on position he / she will have my support.

[Touchdown]

117. I hope you stick around here and discover for yourself.

Most of us a pretty cool people here, and welcome to DU.:toast:

1) Clark, Kerry, Gephart, and Dean all have detailed plans (although they vary) on having exit strategies in Iraq. None of these want to leave until we're sure that Iraq is stable.

2) Most are for middle class tax cuts and increasing taxes on the top 5%. Don't shoot me, but I think Dean is for repealing Bush's giveaways to the rich...I could be wrong though.

3) Clark said ..."If you want an assault rifle, then join the Army"...I think he's very pro-Brady. Dean has a 100% rating from the NRA.

4) All are pro-choice, although Lieberman is calling for "discussing the issue"...seems like pandering to me.

5) You would have no problem with any of the Dem candidates on the freedom to pray, or the opposition to institutionalize it.

6) Tough to say, since theres a lot there. Kucinich talks in detail about specific environmental policies, but I don't know much of each candidate's platform concerning wind farms or hydrogen vehicles, specifically. You could go to their candidate websites and find out though.

7) I don't know what you're talking about here. You have to define "traditional family" and be specific on just what this "never-ending attack" on the traditional family actually is (as in real public policies), before I can answer. We're all with you on the shrinking middle class. This is why most of us are as angry as we are.

I hope my ramblings helped a little. Others are more knowledgeable about their specific candidates. I'm merely narrowing myself down to 3-4 now.

[WiseMen]

25. HISTORY! During Rep Primary Bush polled 53% to V.P. Gore's 42% Dec. 1999

[Name removed]

80. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Sensitivity]

33. The fact that Kerry and Clark were Beating Bush is Interesting to say

the least.

I think we need to do something to change the image soon before
the view that we are going to loose to Bush becomes an accepted fact.

[Scoopie]

88. It already is an accepted fact

That's why the GOP wants Dean.

[bearfartinthewoods]

98. you know, i never actually believed that idea

that the pubbies were giving money to dean and wanted him as our nominee. but seeing it in black and white like this is sort of startling.

we are soooo screwed.

[polpilot]

70. 37% is huge for Dean at this point. Kerry didn't see his end coming nor

did his supporters. Bush is next.

Dean '04...

[WiseMen]

85. INCORRECT. Please Refer to Bush or McCain Numbers vs Gore (incumbent, 99)

POINT: Given the power of incumbency, to win the outside party
need to have a strong case and lead in the polls before the
primary season ends and the Incumbent party starts piling on.

Both Bush and McCain were out-polling incumbent Gore at this
stage in process, 1999.


Registered Voters' Choice in 2000

Bush 55%
Gore 42
Sampling error: +/-4% pts

Registered Voters' Choice in 2000

McCain 52%
Gore 44
Sampling error: +/-4% pts




http://www.cnn.com/1999/ALLPOLITICS/stories/12/13/cnn.poll/

[_Jumper_]

72. Dean has much more name ID than Clark

Why does he trail Clark vis-a-vis Bush in poll after poll?

[bearfartinthewoods]

97. are you claiming dean is an unknown?

after being the focus of the media for months, after having his picture on the cover of every major magazine and you think his losing to kerry and clark is a name recognition problem?

sheeesh...it couldn't possibly be that the more people know about dean, the better they like clark or kerry could it?

[dajabr]

3. It will most certainly happen...

If bitter Democrats abandon him if/when he gets the nomination.

[WiseMen]

37. Bitter activist and partisan INSIGNIFICANT % of electorate. Fundamentals

of perceived credentials, personality and positioning on issues
determine the vote swing. What is critical is choosing the
right candidate to give the masses the sence of assurance and
security required to make a vote for change.

[artr2]

4. Right, and the election is when?....

A lot of stuff can happen in 1 month, much less 11. I don't put a lot of stock in any poll this far out

[Virgil]

5. Why would you believe American media

They cannot even agree on the numbers they want to present. Wait until the next big poll on the Internet and see just like the last time that the unnamed Democrat beats Bush. Why do you think they do not put up direct polls at their websites?

The media is on full disinformation. I am not believing that someone that lost the last election could win this one with his current list of failures, including shredding the Constitution while swearing to defend it, while proving himself worthy of being called "The worst president ever."

Let the lying media put up a poll on the Internet that is not some bullshit like did Sadams capture make you more likely to vote for the treasonous scum now in office.

Did you see the movie Unprecedented? - http://www.unprecedented.org/

Do you know what was clearly the biggest news of last week was? Here is a clue- the news was released on Friday to escape visibility? Here is the second clue- you would never know it happened if you depended on the big 5 of conglomerate media. The big news was that Rupert Murdoch was rewarded by the FCC/USG for his disinformational efforts and future news entertainment by being allowed to buy DirectTV. How screwed up do you think the country is when this could happen. Get over the bullshit and get busy in giving the worst president ever a mandate. That would be the mandate to go home.

[WiseMen]

31. Media Is Insisting the DEAN IS THE MAN. I Don't Want To Believe That!

[John_H]

82. That is the the most important question of the Primary!

We;ve spent the last three years exposing the media's pro-bush bias. Now they want to annoint Dean. Especially the hoes we love to hate-Tweety, Timmy, paula, even CiCi.

Does anyone think their pro Dean schtick is going to continue if he gets the nomination?

[bearfartinthewoods]

99. this question is totally dismissed here and for the life of me,

i don't understand why. when we see these traditional bush lovers pushing the inevitability of dean, why doesn't it raise a red flag?

[illini]

6. Laadey freakin daaaaa!!!

The election is 11 months away. Does no one realize that fact???

[KaraokeKarlton]

7. Use your mellon for a minute...

Right now the field is very crowded. The media consistently portrays Dean inaccurately. Swing voters, moderate Republicans and somewhat disinterested Democrats aren't paying attention beyond what they hear on the news. Once we have a nominee, they will start paying more attention. All they have to do is hear Dean talking and they'll realize he's pretty much in the center and that he makes a whole hell of a lot of sense. They just haven't heard him YET. Calm down about the matchup with Bush. Remember when we were a year before the primaries? Lieberman was leading everywhere just because he was Gore's running mate. It's the same thing with Bush...he's the current president and it's really, really early for the general. Dean fought his way from being an asterick to where he's at now, with 8 people running against him. Look how well he's done. Why on earth would you think that he can't have the same success running against only one guy? He's already got people on the ground in most states. He's so far ahead of the rest in organization it isn't funny. And he's already been to states no one else is even thinking about yet. He's going to blow right by Bush with no problem at all...you just gotta give it some time.

[ibegurpard]

9. "swing voters" and "disinterested Democrats"

are already starting to move towards Dean if this poll is correct.

[WiseMen]

20. Don't You remember that Bush Polled Better than Gore. Dec 2000

http://www.cnn.com/1999/ALLPOLITICS/stories/12/22/poll.cnn/

The party out of power was polling better that the Dems who held the White House.

If Vice President Al Gore were the Democratic Party's candidate and Texas Gov. George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for: George W. Bush, the Republican, or Al Gore, the Democrat?

Bush 53%
Gore 42%
Sampling error: +/-4 percentage points


And Clinton admin was incredibly successful. As with Dean, Bush
was only a vague image in the public mind, versus a 2-term Vice President. But these certain perceptions made voter lean toward him.

Similarly, certain vague perceptions continue to make voters lean
against Dean.

We should all accept the premise that Dean has recieved an
enormous amount of media attention as compared with previous
primaries.

Given the fundamental weakness of Dean's candidacy, and the
special viciousness of the Bush campaign machine, one can only
expect public perception of Dean to become more negative.

[KaraokeKarlton]

28. You haven't seen viscious

If you wanted to see a viscious campaign you should have come to Vermont in 2000. Dean has already run against a hell of a lot worse than anything Bush and Company can throw at him...and Dean won.

Ever hear of "Take Back Vermont"? If not, look it up. Dean is better prepared than any of the others to face what's coming because he's already beat a lot worse.

[bearfartinthewoods]

64. i think there is an interesting article out there somewhere

which discusses how upset dean is about the way the campaign is going. it seems he lays awake at night, fussing about it. also, rumour has it that he says, at times he has to be restrained because of his temper.

sounds like everything i want in a president......

[Scoopie]

89. IN VERMONT

There's 600,000 people of like mind there.
Sorry.. but that's no barometer.
There's 538,000 people in my county AND I live in a suburban to rural area!
Get a CLUE people!

[KaraokeKarlton]

27. I know, I'm a swing voter

I just said on another thread that since I am, I know what kind of things wins voters like me over, and Dean is saying ALL the right things to win over the swing votes and even a bunch of frustrated Republicans who are disgusted with Bush. There are A LOT of them.

[Scoopie]

90. You're funny!

When they hear Dean talk... they'll shudder.
Hon, I'm in marketing and Dean's a disaster!
I can't believe you guys don't see that! Seriously... he's not particularly articulate, he's not pretty, he's not even savvy (Trippi is, but not Dean).
OMG! I feel so sorry for you!

[MODemocrat]

111. Don't waste your time feeling sorry for me

As a Dean supporter, I'm not considered a dumb or stupid person. For crying out loud, aren't we allowed to make our own choices in life?
Besides, do you consider George W. Bush to be articulate,pretty, or savvy? Are we looking for Mr. America for president? :crazy: :eyes: :argh:

[INTELBYTES]

106. Your playing into the hands of the bushies!

As bearfart has already noted, the bushies are waiting with baited breath for Dean to get the nomination. We are just cattle going to slaughter if we don't wake up and see who is driving us. Always having to add the caveat that I am not anti-Dean, I see us getting a planned right-wing trounce of their design because we picked their "dem-candidate".

[windansea]

8. KEY sentence in post

"The Post-ABC poll suggests that Dean's recent surge has come disproportionately from Democrats who do not closely identify with their party."

or may be it's this one

"when asked in the poll whether they trusted the president or Dean more to handle national security and the war on terrorism, 67 percent said Bush and 21 percent Dean. Even on the kind of domestic issues that normally favor Democrats, such as Social Security, health care and education, Bush bests Dean by 50 percent to 39 percent"

result of Dean nomination? something like this

[dajabr]

12. NH will be "sporadic?"

Guess I'm gettin' my flu shot and moving there!

[windansea]

14. heh!!

sorry couldn't find a Dukakis map

[dajabr]

16. These are the maps I'll be watching for now...

http://www.fundrace.org/moneymap.php?cand=RepVDem&zoom=County

Lots of pale colors there!

http://www.fundrace.org/moneymap.php?cand=Dean&zoom=State

Dean goin' "green!"

[windansea]

22. cool maps thanks n/t

[QC]

17. Here you go.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/pe1988.html

[windansea]

21. thanks!

amazing what less than 10% of popular vote diferential results in electorally..........whoa!

[Scoopie]

91. Heheeheee

That was a good one!
And I don't even have the flu!
(Ahem... I'm super human when it comes to that sort of thing. I don't get colds or the flu. I'm serious this time. I really don't. They should test my DNA.. well, I say that, but my son has a cold, which I won't get, even sleeping next to him and eating after him! Super Mom, indeedy doo! ;))

[bearfartinthewoods]

103. here ya go

http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/
there is a bar at the top of the map that let's you go back in time
as far as Carter.

[WiseMen]

118. How do you think we can chage this pattern?

[JailBush]

10. I don't believe it.

I do have a very bad feeling about the coming election; unless the opposition gets its act together, I think Bush has a very good chance of winning (or stealing) the election, regardless of who he faces. But I do not believe he could win by a landslide.

[AnnitaR]

11. I can't even imagine how thrilled Rove was...

to see that video of Dean talking about his lack of foreign policy exp. "I need to plug that hole in my resume, & I'm going to do that with my running mate".

If Dean is our nominee I can't even imagine how many times we are going to get to see that video played.

Why in the world did Dean give them that kind of ammo? Sure, most of us know he needs to plug that hole, but why did he say the words on video to be used against him (and maybe all of us)later??? It makes no sense. Smart move Dr. got any more ammo you want to hand over to them?

I sincerely hope that our party does some serious soul searching and does it soon.

[dajabr]

13. Isn't there a certain Clark video we'll be seeing a lot of...

If he gets the nomination?

"Vote for GWB. Even the guy running AGAINST him - LOVES him!"

That should be fun.

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. I hope they use that one

It is a perfect set up for Clark. Look, it is true that that tape hurt Clark running as a newly introduced Democrat in Democratic primaries. In the General Election I think Clark might well use that tape himself. He would start by saying, "Remember what America was like in the weeks and months following 9/11? We were united as a people. We gave our full support to our President as Commander in Chief. I know I did. We wished him well in the fight against terror. Americans rallied to George Bush because we expected him to fullfill the promise he made to the American people, to go after Osama Bin Ladin, to bring the terrorists who attacked our nation to justice. George Bush had an experienced team to lean on. But when policy disputes broke out among them, when Secratary Powell was resisted in his efforts to enlist the world community in our common cause, Bush needed to make the tough calls, and the calls he made were the worng ones. That's when I decided to enter the race for President..."

[dajabr]

18. No offense Tom...

But squeeze that into a 5 second sound bite, and he might have a chance at making it go away...

I appreciate your post. All our guys/gals are going to face the smear machine.

I'll count to 10 before I post upthread again :-)

[Tom Rinaldo]

24. Absolutely no offense taken

Of course we will all face the smear machine. Actually, though it couldn't be a 5 second sound bite, that could easily become a 60 second if not 30 second political ad. Just a few seconds of Clark's infamous appearance fading into Clark facing the viewers on camera. Instead of saying "That's when I decided to run for President", he could end by saying, "That's why I'm running for President", and it's a wrap. Probably hold that ad back untill the Republicans start to try using Clark at the fund raiser against him...

I hope the best creativity the Democratic Party can muster gets thrown into the 2004 campaign, we will need every ounce of it..

[AnnitaR]

26. Sorry, but if I gotta choose between the two videos...

I gotta say it ISN'T going to be the one where one our candidates is saying how WEAK he is on Foreign Policy!

Please, be honest which one damages us more in the General Election? Bingo... Dean talking about his hole that needs plugged.

Bush Co. is going to make sure that the General Election is ALL about foreign policy and most of us know it.

[mikehiggins]

96. how about

"Just like most Americans
I supported this President.
And then he lied to us
he lied about Osama
he lied about Iraq
he lied about the Saudis
he lied about bout the War on Terror
I gave this President a chance to do the right things for America
He failed
Its time for him to go"

That's less than 30 seconds, and it uses those videotapes as proof of Clark's honest attempt to support the Administration. Not too shabby.

[Gloria]

35. I think we're seeing ONE ISSUE voters here...they see the original

anger thing, and haven't moved past it to see the broader view the deficiencies of the candidate. Frankly, I'm pretty sickened by the bandwagon effect that is really glossing over problems ahead. All the bluster will not stop the onslaught from the Bush campaign. The recent gaffes have been particularly mind-boggling: yeah, tell em about your holes and how #2 will fill the gap. Awful.

[MidwestMomma]

110. Thanks alot....

Before you posted about this video, Rove had no idea it existed! Now that you've posted about it on DU, it will become the centerpiece of some Rovian campaign ad. Shame on you. You must quit helping the enemy by telling them about these things.

Haven't you gotten the memo? :)

<sarcasm off>

[zulchzulu]

19. Kerry runs strongest against Bush

Could it be that he has a solid background in domestic policies with plenty of foreign policy and national security experience as well as being a decorated war veteran?

Nah. People want to run someone with a third of that experience and background who's nearly a foot shorter than Kerry.

[ibegurpard]

34. Both sets of polls

The one where Bush wins in a landslide and the other show all the democrats with in the same range (certainly within the margin of error). If there was a blowout, I might concede you had a point.

[dfong63]

39. ooh, Kerry's so TALL - great reason to vote for him

[Cheswick2.0]

49. short? you are pulling the short card?

ROFL

[otohara]

23. People Don't Know Dean Yet

The best of the best will come to the aid of Dean if he is the nominee and coach him. Bush will look like the idiot he is next to Dr. Dean.

Shocking the numbers Jr. has in Foreign Policy - people are really stupid in this country.

[JCMach1]

29. Pure name recognition... Democrats are awake to who

Dean is, but almost no one else.

Once someone is the legit nominee, the numbers will go up.

[WiseMen]

30. Deans Less Media than Bush 1999?? Please Check That. NOOOO!

Dean has recieve an enormous amount of Nationa Exposure compared
with challengers in previous primaries.

[jmaier]

32. Hmmm...

well if Dems ARE awake to who Dean is the majority surely isn't sold on his candidacy.

[danbruce]

36. The reason Clark does better against Bush

There is one issue that has not really been raised in the primaries, but is reflected in all of the poll results, which show Wes Clark as the strongest Democrat against Bush.

That issue is the "What if ...?" issue. Every day since 9/11, the overriding thought in the back of everyone's mind has been, "What if it happens again?"

That question will be the dominant question of the 2004 general election campaign. That means that national security will be the dominant issue next November.

George W. Bush has convinced a majority of Americans that he can keep them secure if we are faced with another 9/11. Polls consistently show that the public feels he is strong on national security and defense issues.

If the Democratic Party expects to have a chance to beat Bush and win the White House, the Democratic nominee will need to have strong national security credentials, and a track record that demonstrates being testing under fire and found trustworthy.

The American people are not going to change their commander in chief unless they are assurred that the new commander is up to the job. All of the other issues are irrelevant if the Democratic candidate cannot look Bush in the eyes on national security and make him blink first.

Wes Clark is the only Democrat who has the qualifications and experience to do just that, and that's why he polls better than any other Democrat when pitted head to head against Bush!

[ibegurpard]

38. Okay, so what if?

This reminds me of the oft-repeated refrain I heard following 9/11: "I'm just glad it wasn't Al Gore in the White House instead of George Bush." As if Gore would have done things much differently immediately following the attacks (assuming they would have happened at all but that's another thread). How does Wesley Clark being a military man somehow give us extra protection? That is just ludicrous when you stop to really think about it.

[danbruce]

41. Ask the American people

Don't ask me, ask the American people. They seem to put their confidence in the military when the nation is threatened. I can't explain it, that's just the way it is. It is reassurring that Wes Clark has commanded forces in a war. I guess it's kind of like having brain surgery. You want your surgeon to have done a few operations before he cuts on you!

[ibegurpard]

42. We're not talking about a war.

We're talking about a sudden terrorist attack. And as for war itself, most wars have been started DURING the tenure of a president. Should we ONLY elect military people due to the chance that a war could break out?

[newyawker99]

46. Hi danbruce!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[BootinUp]

53. lol, Pretty good for your second post

Welcome to DU Dan!

[INTELBYTES]

107. Hi Dan! Welcome!

From another fairly newbie....
:beer:

[mikehiggins]

73. If Al Gore had been president 9/11 probably wouldn't have happened

Gore would certainly not have switched emphasis from hunting down OBL to building missile defenses and pushing huge tax cuts.

He certainly wouldn't have ignored the Hart commission's recommendations about the weaknesses in our internal defenses and cut the budgets to the agencies most needed to defend us from terrorism.

He most certainly would not have pulled the cruise missle submarine off station that was missioned to drop a smart bomb on OBL whenever he was located.

That's the answer to that canard. If Gore was in office the World Trade Center might well still be standing. That is a charge that Bush is going to have to be held accountable for.

[MIMStigator]

40. got that right.

eom

[caledesi]

43. I only have one thing to say about this:

[Larkspur]

52. Yep, my thoughts exactly

Give 'em hell, Howard!

[Scoopie]

92. Erm... got that one wrong

First... the hardest part is "Clark beats Dean"
The last part is easy.

[Paragon]

44. OK, "WiseMen", we get it - enough posts on the subject

You can stop spreading the meme now. All these posts do is confirm that it is way too early in the process for the general public to know much of anything about our nominee -- especially since we haven't even chosen him yet.

:eyes:

[WiseMen]

51. Most Voter in the "Middle" that decide elect never Know much on Candidate

If Dean and the primaries had not gotten much press at this
time in the process, you could have an argument. But this is
not the case. Dean got at least 2 periods of enormous publicity
(1) When the media gave him the nod as the "insurgent outsider" and featured his campaign everywhere, and (2) when Al Gore endoresed
Dean ahead of the NH Debate at which the whole focus was Governor
Dean's inevitability.

I am asking for honest reflection here.

[stickdog]

45. Thank God there's still time to replace Dean with a candidate who has

run a far worse campaign while inspiring no one but himself to donate to his cause!

[Cheswick2.0]

48. lol

yes an uninspiring republican in a donkey suit..... uh, that's the ticket.

[Tom Rinaldo]

50. And who would that be? n/t

[Cheswick2.0]

47. Redell victory inevitable..... screaming DUers claim Fisher will win

this is what happened two years ago. I was working for Rendell For Governor. Bluedog democrats on the board claimed a Rendell victory in the primary spelled doom for democrats in 2002. "The swing voters the swing voters" Blah blah blah..........

[HFishbine]

54. Self contradicting bull

in the article's commentary. First suggesting that democratic "activists" will pick the party nominee, then observing that Dean actually gets more of his support from independents than from party faithful.

Isn't this what we wanted? A candidate with appeal to indpendents?

[BootinUp]

55. Only you could look at it this way

If the independents don't know much about him at his point, he could still lose them in the future. He needs them in the General Election.

[HFishbine]

61. I see

so a candidate who has less support among independents is a better choice. I got it. The best candidate is the one who has lower support among dems and lower support among independents. Makes sense to me.

[BootinUp]

63. Nice Spin on my post n/t

[SCantiGOP]

56. Bush will beat Dean in a landslide

Karl Rove and Joe Lieberman both said so, so it must be true.

[Dianne Maire]

93. It won't be a landslide but Bush will beat Dean

Another 4 years of Bush. A catastrophe for America and the world.

Clark is the only candidate that can beat Bush head to head.

[worldgonekrazy]

57. BULLSHIT!

Do you actually believe this shit?

How much of the general electorate knows much of anything about Dean except (maybe) that he is the front-runner in the Democratic race? Independents, and even a lot of Dems, are just waiting for the nomination process to play itself out before they start taking a serious look at the race.

So to say that Dean will lose in a landslide because his numbers are below Bush is pure BULLSHIT, and I think you are purposefully presenting it to scare people out of supporting Dean. SHAME ON YOU!

[INTELBYTES]

108. Double Bullshit!

Dean has already given the bushies enough ammo to make him look like a weak, half-assed candidate at best. Dean's quotes will come back to haunt him and he hasn't even started the real game yet. Toss em overboard while we still have a chance and lets but someone with a snowballs chance in there.

Dean will lose in a landslide and we better figure that out soon or we will be crying in our milk on a cold november morning next year.
Shame on you for not thinking of what is best for the party!

[Patriot_Spear]

58. I don't see a problem here.

I have yet to see the DU handle 'Nostrodamus' appear. Speculation is free.

[Tom Rinaldo]

59. You may want to also view this

Here is a now closed thread that was consolidated back into this one. It's topic concerned whether the WP poll had aspects of a "push poll" due to the questions asked and the way in which it was asked. There are I think 14 posts on that now closed thread which will be sinking down the pages and otherwise out of sight. So drop in and take a look and post back here if you are interested in that aspect of this discussion:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=21879

[Raya]

60. Wisemen, Just read another post that Poll designed to Boost Dean

What do you say about that? What's wrong with the poll.
What does that do to your point here?

[TexasSissy]

66. I agree. There's something wrong with the poll.

Look at the questions in the order in which they were asked. Then look at the results, which don't jive with any other recent poll. You'll see the connection. The first questions are pushing Dean.

There's something wrong with this poll. And I will continue to view Washington Post polls with skepticism, no matter who is on top in the results.

[killbotfactory]

62. Mission Accomplished! Now Bush doesn't have to campaign.

Since Dean will be SUUUUUCH a pushover.

[Scott Lee]

65. Well, "Wisemen"...is this a report or a wish?

Follow up question: Why would you rather ran a LESS popular and well financed democratic candidate against Bushhole?

[AngryAmish]

67. It is too early

Was Carter, Reagan, Clinton all leading 11 months before their first election? No.
The people will finally get the message before the election. And things are gonna flow - and they will flow.

[Myra]

68. Dean supporters like polls!

Whoops, not this poll.

[edzontar]

71. How often do we have to re-read the same argument?

Before it starts to become white noise.

I don't even care any more.

All I want now is for Clark to lose, soon and BIG, just to put a stop to these annoying, redundant, pointless threads.

Thanks for yet another Xmas lump of coal.

[Scott Lee]

74. This is version 9.0

Of the usual...they love to do this with any of their other losing arguments. Recycle it ad nauseum and hope the mods don't catch on.

[edzontar]

76. There will be another 45 of these tomorrow, too

I doubt they will be satisfied until they have turned our party, and these forums, into a heap of smoking ruins.

[dansolo]

75. And what were the poll numbers before Saddam's capture?

They are selectively using certain polls to indicate a "trend", when immediately before Saddam's capture, Dean's national numbers were much closer to Bush, and higher than any of the other Democratic candidates. It is not suprising that there was a bounce from Saddam's capture, and it is awfully shady to use a poll taken immediately after a well publicized event, without also including the intervening 6 weeks.

[WiseMen]

86. You Miss the Point. Dean is Dominant in Media and Primary Campaign.

Give Dean's incredible Dominance in the media in is noteworthy that
he is not beating Bush in the Polls by a substantial margin.

One would like the dominant candidate to have a lead over the incumbent, because he isn't going to get much more positive
publicity since the monstrous Rove onslaught is about to begin.

Note: Given the power of incumbency, to win the outside party
need to have a strong case and lead in the polls before the
primary season ends and the Incumbent party starts piling on.

Both Bush and McCain were out-polling incumbent Gore at this
stage in process, 1999.


Registered Voters' Choice in 2000

Bush 55%
Gore 42
Sampling error: +/-4% pts


Registered Voters' Choice in 2000

McCain 52%
Gore 44
Sampling error: +/-4% pts


These are the FACTS.




http://www.cnn.com/1999/ALLPOLITICS/stories/12/13/cnn.poll/

[goforit]

77. Another stolen election supported with propagandized POLLs!!!

Whooppie!!!!

Just looking forward to the enaction of Frodo conquering Mordor!!!

Or better yet, a revival of 1776.

[edzontar]

78. Threads like these serve only our enemies, the Repukes.

Those of you who are sincerely concerned about the fate of our party and our nation should give this a little thought.

You don't want to play into the hands of disruptors and dirty tricksters, who are watching these forums closely, and in some cases, almost certainly joining in on the carnage.

[MidwestMomma]

105. Enough already with "your helping the enemy" posts...

Posting criticisms, attacks or doodle-drawings of primary candidates is what this forum is about. I'm tired of people trying to stifle discussion by pulling this one out of the bag. I've had it with people saying 'watch what you say, evil big repug big brother is watching our board." "They will use your words against us"

WHO CARES..."They" are going to run a dirty campaign with or without any help from anybody on this board.

Threads like this are part of the discussion of the candidates. If some people are concerned that Dean doesn't poll well against the current incumbent, I think that's a pretty valid concern and subject of MUCH discussion.

If you disagree, state why. If you are sick of defending your candidate, let someone else do it. There is no lack of opinions on this board.

But please, quit with the "these threads only serve the enemy" spin. It only makes us more like the Repukes we all hope to defeat in 2004.

"I may not agree with what you say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it" -Voltaire

[INTELBYTES]

109. Amen Midwest Momma!!

That's what this forum is for! Screw the disruptors. Let them get a life. This is what makes for good democracy!

[Upfront]

79. My Heart

Just breaks for all our sad sack democratic leaders that haven't had time to decide who they back. The primary system they put in place is just happing to fast for them, it seems. Give me a break, if you want to know about Dean or any other candidate, get off your rear and go hear him speak, like I did. Tune to c-span and hear them live talking to a rally. If you one time trouble your self to hear Dean speak to a group you will understand why he leads the pack. If he is so unelectable why can't one of these other great candidates beat him? Dean will be the next President, mark my words.

[Dianne Maire]

94. The heart errs like the head...

Living in Europe I must depend on the media. Thankfully German and French media are less biased than American which I keep up with also.
Dean leads the pack. The way things look now he will win the nomination. But, he won't win the race.
I will vote for Dean if he wins the nomination but it will be dis-tasteful. My priority is to remove Bush from office. Too many don't have this priority and will keep the incumbent rather than take a chance on Dean, for many reasons.
It's too bad Clark started so late. He is the man for the job. He's the only man who can stand head to head with Bush. I would love to see a debate on foreign policy between these two.

[John_H]

81. Completely obvious is not obvious enough when the primary concern

of a "movement" is the movement itself. Think about it: How many times--here on DU, in the press, in conversations--has the primary focus regarding Dean been the the campaign itself? It's outsiderness. Its inssurectionness, its grassrootsness, its power-to-the-peopleness. Even more telling is that even his staunchest supporters seems to be the campaign. How many people are going where. What press event has just occured. What Joe Trippi says.

This election is going to be about national security like it or not. Rove's 200 million and the media will see to that.

Sooner or later the decision is going to have to be made whether or not the power to the people rhetoric is more compelling than the fact that dean is going to be portrayed by the media and the GOP and thus percieved as the weak on the campaign's main theme.

[eileen_d]

84. Yep - I think I'm done caring.

I have recently been reading the book about Dean by the Vermont newspapers, in an effort to try to get excited about his candidacy. But it's not happening, and I realize now it never will.

I'm glad that some people are getting energized by Dean's candidacy, but I do not like what I read about the way he governs. I see no reason to pretend that I do.

I will vote for Dean if nominated because I am a committed Democrat; I'll put the Dean bumper sticker on my car. But as far as my political energies go I will be concentrating on state races, since we have a decent chance of electing a Democratic governor this time around.

Have fun - I'm done.

[w4rma]

101. C'ya! (n/t)

[frustrated_lefty]

87. Yup, little chicken confirms:

the world ends.

[CWebster]

95. They also said there was no way to win the American revolution

but for a minority of determined advocates.

You can heed their vantage point of who is electible and who will triumph, after all, they are trying to gain the advantage and skew perception. The question is why are you providing the messenger service?

Dean's rivals attack Dean along with the opposition and they still can't get any traction with the voters who apparently are still clueless---why would any of the other candidates be in any better position to battle Bush, when more often than not, they are reinforcing him?

The US media has done a real good job or reporting, investigating and condemning the worst gang of thugs running this country into the ground - what do they know? They've been propping the little idiot son up, so long as he does the corporation's bidding.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

100. Another "we have to be more like repugs to win" post.

If only we would agree with the need for the slaughter in Iraq; praise the phoney "war" on terrorism; back the depradations of "Homeland Security"; wave the flag more; blindly "support our troops"; be willing to invade even more 3rd world countries and kill even more people to protect "our" interests ($$); and meekly compromise on the environment, civil rights, women's rights, universal health care, and every other progressive issue..

Why, then we'd zoom up in the popularity polls and have a chance of winning "moderate" voters. Then we could change the name of the Democratic Party to the "Slightly Moderate Republican Party" and WIN elections!

Great idea! Who needs an opposition party that actually opposes the DumbSon? It gets the American people upset so that they won't spend as much and some of them might actually question the policies that put profits and "pragmatism" above people's lives.

But, after all, winning is everything. Isn't it?

[shivaji]

102. Polls are often wrong...here are some glaring examples..

Clinton was lagging way behind Bush I after his nomination by the democratic party in 1992.

Reagan was polling behind Carter after his nomination by GOP in 1980.

Yet we all know the results were completely opposite!!
No reason to think Dean will not overcome Bush*.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

104. The

SKY

[robbedvoter]

112. It was a push poll, meant to bolster W, pick hos opponent. Enjoyed on DU

http://www.politicsus.com/ 
READ THIS NEW WP/ABC NEWS POLL AND ASK YOURSELF: WHY WAS HOWARD DEAN THE ONLY DEMOCRAT TESTED IN A HEAD-TO-HEAD BALLOT TEST AGAINST BUSH?

[freetempe]

113. Oh my gosh, a push-poll 11 months before the election!!

It must be right, lets just give up now and not even hold an election!! I mean, if the WaPo/ABC is always right, why even bother having an election. The sky is falling!! The sky is falling!! We're doomed!!

/Sarcasm off.

[jsw_81]

114. Big deal

Polls at this stage last time had Bush crushing Gore by 15-20 points. Gore went on to win the election.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

115. No. It's "confirmed."

[Upfront]

116. Post Is Half Right

The primary is over, Dean wins. Wrong about general election, Dean will win in a walk. Go Dean!!!!!!!!

[ozone_man]

119. Funny how things can change fast in the general election.

Bush senior sure looked like he had a wrap on the election with 90% war popularity. The economy came back into focus and Clinton walked away with the election.