If you live in a Republican held Congressional district...

[Pacifist Patriot]

Poll question: If you live in a Republican held Congressional district...

I'm curious about the 2006 House races. As far as I've been able to find out, we do not have any Democrats who have been vocal about running for FL-15. This gerrymandered district would be a hard fight anyway. I may stand a better chance of getting a Democratic majority in the house if I work for candidates in other districts to the best of my distant ability. <An even better chance with verified voting, but that's another topic.>

So what rumblings are you hearing?

[Maestro]

1. I'm in Texas

and my rep is Smokey Joe Barton, one of the worst repukes around. A democrat ran against him in 2004 and only received one third or one quarter of the vote. I have not heard anyone express an interest to run against him.

[LondonReign2]

8. Heh, I have Michael Burgess..

...he of the Tom DeLay fan club, contributor to the DeLay defense fund, and all-around Tom DeLay acolyte.

Imagine my surprise in '04 (my first election in Texas) when there were only 3 Democrats on the ballot out of approximately 20 offices here in Denton County.

Someone *may* run, but it will be a token run at best.

Red Texas is awful.

[Pacifist Patriot]

14. Someone made this argument at the last DEC meeting and I'm...

wondering if there might not be something to it. He said every district should get at least 3-4 democrats to run. That gives the appearance of a party that is alive and well. Even if all of them are sacrificial lambs at least the voters will see activity.

I think he might be right because of a run in I had with another democrat the other night. Instead of retying I'll just link to it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1822488

I wonder if people think they are the only democrat because they never see any on the ballot!

[JNelson6563]

2. I know of only one

and I'm not sure if it's better than an empty spot on the ballot. It's hard to get a credible challenger to go up against a long entrenched incumbant and when they learn they (very likely) need to commit to two runs to win, well that doesn't qualify as an "easy sell".

Julie

[Pacifist Patriot]

4. That's a really good point and exactly what we're facing.

We've had our incumbant for at least ten years. He's had a democratic challenger each time, but they've lasted one election cycle and not been up for another go. It's expensive! It's hard enough to fund a first run, but it gets harder to find contributors when you're branded a loser. Hard sell not just to the candidate, but also to their financial base.

[JNelson6563]

10. You make an important point

It's expensive! It's hard enough to fund a first run, but it gets harder to find contributors when you're branded a loser. Hard sell not just to the candidate, but also to their financial base.

Brilliant point. The way I think we need to address this is to have meetings with the candidate, the DCCC (or whatever appropriate org) and private donors. All must be agreed to the two run committment at the outset in these particular districts. That is the only way it can work. Once we have overcome this particular short-sighted, narrow paradigm we will make progress. In two election cycles we could change the political landscape, if we approached it properly and collectively.

In short we need a long term, nationwide plan/solution.

Julie

[Pacifist Patriot]

12. Agreed!

[socoljam]

3. Make a dent!

Attack the Republican on everything he does in local papers. Have lots of letters come from lots of different people. (Even if just 3 people write them, lots can sign their names.) Frankly, if the Republican voted leftish on something (for instance, abortion or stem cell research) that won't sit well in a very right-wing district, bring that up, too. The key is to decrease his automatic support/turnout.

Then start a real campaign for at least one Democrat. Pick someone you think can win in your district, without the incredibly popular Republican. You don't have to win this time around, but get a serious candidate and make a serious try. Get all the votes you can, and raise all the money you can (that one's important). Then you can go to the DNC next year and say "Look, in this district with a "safe" Republican, we raised this much money and got this many votes. I think with more resources we could win." And hopefully the national party will commit some money and talent to it. And if not, keep it up, because for every "safe" Republican that has to spend their money and time campaigning at home, some other Republican has that much less money.

I, too, come from a very conservative district. This is my plan.

[Pacifist Patriot]

5. Excellent plan.

Yep, this district was seen as so safe that Weldon barely spent a dime on his campaign. From what I could see, he propped up a few street corner signs next to the Bush/Cheney ones a few weeks before the election and that was pretty much it.

[socoljam]

15. Even if you can't win..

Spend money. Make him spend money. At least some of it will come from the RNC. And maybe that's $10,000 they can't use to re-elect someone else. Make a serious effort, even if you know it's a lost cause.

Plus, who knows, maybe you'll start convincing some people who has the better ideas!

[nevergiveup]

6. My district is becoming a little less red but .....

Denny Boom Boom Hastert is our Rep and we are lucky to even have a token challenger. If I were 10 years younger I would take him on.......I really would.

[Pacifist Patriot]

7. Too bad we can't average.

I'd be going after a seat if I were 10 years older....or my kids were. Either way.

[ThorsHammer]

9. How on earth did he win in a place as blue as IL?

[LibDemAlways]

11. The asshole who has a permanent Congressional seat

in the feifdom of Ventura County, CA is Elton Gallegly, a repuke so vile that he throws Dems out of his office. He routinely wins with 65% of the vote. He doesn't even bother to campaign and votes the straight chimp agenda.

I live right on the Ventura/LA County border and for years was represented by a series of moderate Dems who represent the San Fernando Valley. Then I got redistricted two years ago into this repuke hellhole. Like many here, I have no Congressional representation.

[Pacifist Patriot]

13. I just looked up the data in my county and was appalled.

Now the FL-15 overlaps into two other counties, but we are by far the largest population base. Get a load of this.

My Mayor: R

County Offices Clerk of the Circuit Court-R
Sheriff-R
Property Appraiser-R
Tax Collector-D
Supervisor of Elections-R
Commissioner 1-R
Commissioner 2-R
Commissioner 3-R
Commissioner 4-R
Commissioner 5-R

State State Senator 24-R (Mine)
State Senator 26-R
State Rep 29-R
State Rep 30-R (Mine)
State Rep 31-R
State Rep 32-R
State Rep 80-R

US Rep 15-R (Mine)
Rep 24-R

One Democrat. One!!!! The Tax Collector who has been in office for well over a decade.

Now look at the voter registration breakdown even though a direct correlation cannot be made because of the way districts break up the county or overlap into other counties. But still!

Republicans 45%
Democrats 36.5%
Other 18.5%

We are doing a PITIFUL job of appealing to non-affiliated voters. Our turnout as a party isn't really all that bad. Also one would think that there have GOT to be some areas that are more heavily weighted to the democrats. It's certainly not my precinct. This is freaking scary!!!

[LittleClarkie]

16. Bryan Kennedy is trying to take out Sennsenbrenner

Not alotta hope. But I give the kid credit. This is the second time in a row he's trying for it.

[Pacifist Patriot]

17. I'll keep an eye on the race.

Thanks for the heads up.

[iwantmycountryback]

18. I have Sue Kelly 19th CD NY

She's fairly moderate as far as modern Republicans go, she's decent on the environment and abortion rights. The last candidate to run against her only got 33% I think, and probably about the same for '02. We'd have to get a pretty strong Democrat to beat her, though I wouldn't consider it completely impossible.