Edwards v. Giuliani '08 ?

[liberalpragmatist]

I was intrigued by the latest Pew Poll that showed Edwards beating Giuliani.

Now, I realize that the chance of Giuliani winning the Republican nomination is pretty slim (although one does wonder about Pat Robertson's recent charitable remarks about Rudy).

However, for the sake of argument, ignore the fact that Rudy's probably too liberal to win a Republican nomination. Let's just pretend he does. Let's say he subverts abortion and gay marriage and instead promotes general "decency" and denounces "filth" (like he did back in NYC with the various art controversies), a Bismarckian-corporatist Conservatism, and Neocon foreign policy.

Imagine that he runs against Edwards as the Democratic nominee.

How does the electoral map turn out?

The reason I ask is because the 2000 and 2004 maps were VERY similar. And I think any race involving, say, Hillary Clinton and George Allen or Bill Frist would look pretty similar to the '00 and '04 maps.

But how would a Giuliani-Edwards race turn out? I'm not sure how many states would actually flip, but Edwards could conceivably win a couple Southern states - Arkansas would be a definite possibility, maybe Missouri (not really "Southern"), and possibly North Carolina or Virginia. Florida would probably be as competitive as ever.

However, it could be counterbalanced by a tougher fight in NY and NJ and even in California. We'd probably win all 3 (maybe not NJ), but it would cause us to spend money where we wouldn't want to.

How would the big midwestern swing states fall? Would Rudy do better in suburban Philadelphia? Which way would Delaware blow?

Or would the map just wind up looking similar or maybe just a little more blue or a little more red?

[Clarkie1]

1. Too many hypotheticals to be worth the server space. n/t

[the_spectator]

2. You're forgetting something -

Edwards v. Giuliani, how does the electoral map turn out? A sea of blue. Landslide city.

That particular matchup would have to be the most extreme example of disparate hotness between the two major candidates ever. No one can deny that Edwards is a good-looking man, especially so for a politician. Giuliani isn't.

Even if Guiliani was running against someone else, he'd have heavy problems with the visuals. For one thing, he's bald. No bald man has won the presidential election ever since TV, except for Eisenhower, who beat the equally bald Stevenson. (And no president has worn glasses on a regular basis since FDR.)

[Hippo_Tron]

4. self delete

[Clark2008]

6. I'll deny Edwards is good looking!

I think he looks too much like a Ken doll.

Personally, I always liked G.I. Joe! :7

[GreenArrow]

11. I'll join you

I think he looks insipid and plastic.

Kind of like a Ken doll, I guess.

[AP]

12. But you do like his priorities, right? Caring about who gets wealthy and

who doesn't in America, and why...you like that he talks about that, regardless of how he looks? No?

Or is the way someone looks more important to you?

[GreenArrow]

14. I'll try not to hold his looks against him

But looks can tell a lot. Take a look at Dick Cheney, for example, or Condi Rice. Or Rummy. There are things written in their faces that negate any sort of "happy talk" they might make. They look, frankly, unsettling, to be polite about it. Surely you have encountered people in your life whose looks gave you pause. Edwards is not in that league. Not even close.

...Interrputed.

[Caoimhe]

3. PLEASSE PUKES.. RUN GULIANI!!

He has more skeletons in his closet than all the dem hopefuls put together. The guy moved his girlfriend in with his wife and kids. PLEASE REPUBLICANS.. RUN RUN RUDY!

[Hippo_Tron]

5. The south will probably resurrect the Dixiecrat party

And nominate Strom Thurmond's corpse. Guarantee you that he carries at the very minimum... Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina. Not too shabby for a dead person.

[carpetbagger]

7. A few states would flip, but only a few. Unless terra terra terra.

If Giuliani wins the New Hampshire primary, someone's going to unload on him for several weeks. It will be merciless, and Giuliani will come out of the primaries weaker than Clinton in 1992 (in mid-May he was running in third place). He will get back into the race, but what he will make up for in the reams of moderate republicans he will lose in his base.

He'd take Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine, but the rest of the northeast would be out of reach. Edwards would take Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, and maybe North Carolina.

The GOP base would stay home.

If we had another terrorist attack, even a Madrid-sized attack, it would be a sea of red, so long as the march to Tehran were politically timed.

[sybil]

8. I have no problem denying Edwards is a good looking guy.

If not mistaken I believe the Dems in Arkansas are pretty much planning to vote for their native son...

[warrens]

9. Rudy has no chance

He was fucking his assistant while his kids were home with his wife. Then when he got caught by the Daily News, he dumped her. But a few months later, he was fucking some PR person who he is now married to. Seriously, this man has ZERO morals. When I was unhappily married, I never even thought about cheating. This is one immoral GOP hypocrite asshole. I hope they nominate him, we'll cut him to pieces and make him wish he had died of cancer.

[AP]

10. Let's not forget Rudy's idea of good guy was Bernard Kerick (sp?)

Yikes.

Also, Rudy makes money off of fear. He has a security business with a Mexico City contract, for example, that saves CEOs from kindnappings by poor people -- ie, the more inequality and desperation there is in Mexico City, the more money he makes.

It's not unlike Somoza owning a blood plasma company and making money off of desperate people selling their blood because Somoza created a political environment that made the desperate.

[FrenchieCat]

13. Let's not forget the pics of Guliani in drag.....

Nope. Don't think he gets the nomination.

It's not like he did anything other than happened to have being the mayor and more courageous on 9/11 than Monkey Boy in chief. If that's supposed to be an achievement worthy to turn around and have the Southern Religious Wrong voting for an ugly man who has posed in Drag and had an affair on his wife...then I'm the Monkey's uncle (and I'm not)!

If he wins the GOP nomination, then any Democrat nominee kicks his ass...some harder than others.

[zulchzulu]

15. The chance that either will be the candidates is microtesimal

Giuliani v. Edwards?

How about Bad Company v. Whitesnake as best world classical orchestra in 2007?

Both have about the same chance of happening...

[Radical Activist]

16. It would be great for us. The election would be about economic issues.

Edwards could rally working class voters in the South and Midwest who are voting based on social issues. With two moderates on social issues running against each other, Democrats will be able to focus on economic issues that help us win.

[Pushed To The Left]

17. If it was really Edwards vs. Guliani

I would be celebrating after the primaries! The religious right would be unrepresented! Or better yet, they might run a theocrat as a third party candidate, splitting the right wing vote and giving Edwards an easy win!

[NAO]

18. Giuliani is NOT a man of God. The Religious Reich will not rally for him

and without their Electoral Shock Troops (aka "values voters") he will not stand a chance.

Frist is The Anointed One, "He Who is to Come", the Doctor who will heal us of our sinful ways and the Republican Messiah who will lead us into the promised land of The Theocratic States of America - Just as the Founding Fathers intended.