What do you predict will happen to Chavez ?

[burythehatchet]

There's something about the Venezuela situation that is very troubling.

The people in charge of policy for south america are the same old recycled war criminals from the 80's. Except now you have a guy with the balls to put the conflict on the world stage. Any action by the american terrorists now would be scrutinized.

What do you think will happen in the next year or two?

[NEOBuckeye]

1. There will probably be a covert-orchestrated attempt on his life.

Whether or not it will be successful is anyone's guess. But an open invasion is increasingly unlikely. I believe that China is already planning to offer Venezuela military support and will probably even have troops stationed there in some capacity in the coming years. That will surely make the idiot GOP Right Wing furious, but because Bushy-boy fucked up our military in Iraq, it's not like they can do a damn thing about it. There is no more such thing as US military superiority.

[NickofTime]

6. Chavez is Selling Off Profitable Assets

This will bring in cash for the short term, but hurt Venezuela's oil income long term.

Venezuela's strategy is to get out of non-profit businesses in the USA

Bloomberg is reporting that Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez Frias, speaking in Buenos Aires (Argentina) has said his government may sell eight US refineries as part of a strategy to reduce Venezuela's economic dependency on sales to the United States. … "Not one Venezuelan works at these refineries ... they don't give us one cent of profit ... they don't pay taxes in Venezuela ... this is economic imperialism.''

Citgo's refineries are engineered to process sulphur-laden Venezuelan heavy crudes

If Chavez eventually suspends oil exports to the United States, Citgo's new owners would have to find alternative supplies. These could come from Russia, Saudi Arabia or Mexico. However, while some Russian and Saudi crude oil contains a lot of sulphur, it is not as heavy as the Venezuelan crudes that Citgo's refineries are engineered to process.

Sour crude oil sweetens profits for refineries

Like bartenders putting cheap alcohol into their cocktails, some U.S. refiners are reaping huge profits by using lower quality crude oil to make everything from gasoline to diesel.

The difference is that, unlike martinis mixed with barnyard booze, these finished fuels, after a little extra work, are the same quality as those made with top-shelf ingredients and therefore fetch the same high price from consumers. But the initial cost per barrel is $7 to $17 cheaper. … Depending on the precise chemical composition, lower quality oil is selling at discounts ranging from $7 to $17 per barrel, when compared with light, sweet crude. A year ago, heavy, sour crudes, whether from Mexico, Venezuela or Canada, were discounted by about half that much. "The sweet-sour spreads have never been this good," said Gene Edwards, senior vice president of supply and trading at San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp., the nation's largest independent refiner and the leading processor of sour crude.

[LaPera]

7. The world knows the Bush government wants Chavez dead. It's very sad...

Chavez is trying to do what's best for the Venezuelan people, after all it is their oil, and the greedy corporate imperialist couldn't care less.

You know these same corporate pigs are whining and crying to BushCo every day about Chavez, demanding to have Chavez taken out. Using any bullshit excuse, drugs, regional security, US investments, etc...

They pay no taxes, here or abroad, yet they want our tax dollars to finance the overthrow of yet another sovereign nation to steal and reap even more oil profits.

[Robbien]

2. Covert activities will take him down

More money is being funnelled into the opposition, more NGOs are being sent to the area, more pressure is being put on world groups to censure Venezuela. They will probably stop Chavez by causing enough "civil unrest" which will stall any progress.

[burythehatchet]

3. In a pre-bush world that would be true

but I believe that there are enough countries who crave venezuelan crude to complicate that plan

[Robbien]

4. They will still harvest Venezuela's crude

just as they are harvesting Iraq's crude. And as in Iraq, no one in Venezuela will see one dime's worth of benefit.

[IndianaGreen]

5. You can only kill a man once

as it happened in the Che Guevara case, the man you killed is now a legend and legends cannot be killed. Che remains forever young. Che remains an icon for the struggle against American imperialism.