Exit Polls MATCHED Pre-Election polls within 1/7th of ONE percent

[TruthIsAll]

Exit Polls MATCHED Pre-Election polls within 1/7th of ONE
percent 

 
The final state polls entered into the Election model had
Kerry leading by ONE percent in the national weighted
average:47.88-46.89. 
This is equivalent to Kerry getting 50.5% of the two-party
vote

Exit Polls entered into the model had Kerry leading:
50.60%-49.34%. 
This is equivalent to Kerry getting 50.63% of the two party
vote. 

The difference between the two sets of polls is .13%.
This is LESS THAN 1/7 of ONE percent.

The FINAL Pre-election state polls from Zogby, ARG, et al
EXACTLY AGREED with the Exit polls.

That is, until the polls abruptly turned to Bush at 1AM, Nov
3.

	Final State Polls	       Exit Polls			
	Kerry%	Bush%	K/K+B	Kerry% Bush% K/K+B	Diff
AL	39	57	40.6%	41.00	59.00	41.0%	-0.37%
AK	30	57	34.5%	40.50	59.50	40.5%	-6.02%
AZ	45	50	47.4%	47.00	53.00	47.0%	0.37%
AR	48	48	50.0%	46.60	53.40	46.6%	3.40%
CA	49	42	53.8%	54.00	46.00	54.0%	-0.15%
							
CO	47	48	49.5%	49.10	50.90	49.1%	0.37%
CT	52	42	55.3%	58.50	41.50	58.5%	-3.18%
DE	45	38	54.2%	58.50	41.50	58.5%	-4.28%
DC	78	11	87.6%	91.00	9.00	91.0%	-3.36%
FL	50	47	51.5%	50.00	49.00	50.5%	1.04%
							
GA	42	52	44.7%	43.00	57.00	43.0%	1.68%
HI	45	45	50.0%	53.30	46.70	53.3%	-3.30%
ID	30	59	33.7%	33.50	66.50	33.5%	0.21%
IL	54	42	56.3%	57.00	43.00	57.0%	-0.75%
IN	39	58	40.2%	41.00	59.00	41.0%	-0.79%
							
IA	50	44	53.2%	50.65	49.35	50.7%	2.54%
KS	37	60	38.1%	35.00	65.00	35.0%	3.14%
KY	39	56	41.1%	41.00	59.00	41.0%	0.05%
LA	40	48	45.5%	44.50	55.50	44.5%	0.95%
ME	50	39	56.2%	54.75	45.25	54.8%	1.43%
							
MD	54	43	55.7%	57.00	43.00	57.0%	-1.33%
MA	64	27	70.3%	66.00	34.00	66.0%	4.33%
MI	52	45	53.6%	52.50	47.50	52.5%	1.11%
MN	52	44	54.2%	54.50	45.50	54.5%	-0.33%
MS	42	51	45.2%	43.25	56.75	43.3%	1.91%
							
MO	44	49	47.3%	47.50	52.50	47.5%	-0.19%
MT	36	57	38.7%	39.75	60.25	39.8%	-1.04%
NE	32	61	34.4%	36.75	63.25	36.8%	-2.34%
NV	49	49	50.0%	49.35	50.65	49.4%	0.65%
NH	47	47	50.0%	55.40	44.60	55.4%	-5.40%
							
NJ	50	42	54.3%	52.80	46.20	53.3%	1.01%
NM	49	49	50.0%	51.30	48.70	51.3%	-1.30%
NY	57	39	59.4%	63.00	37.00	63.0%	-3.63%
NC	46.7	50.3	48.1%	48.00	52.00	48.0%	0.14%
ND	35	55	38.9%	34.00	66.00	34.0%	4.89%
							
OH	50	47	51.5%	52.10	47.90	52.1%	-0.55%
OK	28	61	31.5%	35.00	65.00	35.0%	-3.54%
OR	50	44	53.2%	51.20	48.80	51.2%	1.99%
PA	50	45	52.6%	54.35	45.65	54.4%	-1.72%
RI	56	36	60.9%	64.00	36.00	64.0%	-3.13%
							
SC	42	55	43.3%	46.00	54.00	46.0%	-2.70%
SD	42	52	44.7%	37.75	62.25	37.8%	6.93%
TN	47.8	50.3	48.7%	41.50	58.50	41.5%	7.23%
TX	37	59	38.5%	37.00	63.00	37.0%	1.54%
UT	24	69	25.8%	30.50	69.50	30.5%	-4.69%
							
VT	53	40	57.0%	65.00	35.00	65.0%	-8.01%
VA	47	51	48.0%	45.40	54.10	45.6%	2.33%
WA	52	44	54.2%	54.95	45.05	55.0%	-0.78%
WV	45.8	48.6	48.5%	45.25	54.75	45.3%	3.27%
WI	51	44	53.7%	52.50	47.50	52.5%	1.18%
WY	29	65	30.9%	29.00	65.50	31.0%	1.50%
							
Avg	47.88	46.89	50.50%	50.60	49.34	50.63%	-0.13%

 
 

[matt819]

1. Okay, I'm scratching my head. . .

You've done an amazing job since the election working the numbers, so I don't really question the numbers, though I do have two questions.

First, a clarification. When you say final state polls, you do mean prior to the elction, correct?

Second, what does the K/K+B column represent?

The natural follow-on to the this is the actual vote count. If I read your comments correctly, the final state polls (prior to the election) matched pretty darn closely the exit polls. So far, so good. The problem, of course, is that the actuals differed. Statisticians out there have argued that this is not surprising, necessarily, because of the nature of exit polls (time of day, sampling, etc.) In any case, I think the next columns on this spreadsheet need to show the actual percentages. The problem, of course, is that no one out there in the mainstream media is prepared to do the kind of investigative journalism to get to the bottom of these numbers.

Good work.

[msongs]

2. I admire your perservence and work and also

wonder just what is the point....any evidence that your kind of documentation is being considered by ANYONE, either in a position of authority or otherwise, with the aim of doing something to prove the election is invalid.

otherwise it is just a fun time with data.


Msongs
Riverside Ca

Political t shirts!
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

[TruthIsAll]

3. am kick

tia