Senate 2006 - Prospects?

[liberalpragmatist]

We face long odds in the '06 senate. There simply aren't that many good opportunities for us.

The key races we have to look at are the following:

1. Pennsylvania: Santorum's seat! We MUST win this one. Gov. Ed Rendell's choice appears to be State Treasurer Barbara Hafer, a former Liberal Republican who's pro-choice and a Western Pennsylvanian.

2. Missouri: Missouri's still a swing state. Unfortunately, just as it appeared to be in the midst of a centrist Democratic lean in the '90s, it's in a Republican lean at the moment. It'll be tough to unseat Jim Talent, but it can be done! Who are some good candidates? Some have mentioned outgoing Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell. Defeated Gubernatorial nominee Claire McCaskill's another prospect, but she has said she's not interested.

3. Tennessee: Frist has pledged to step down. Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. has a great shot, but in this GOP-leaning state, it'll still be an uphill battle.

4. Virginia: George Allen is formidable. So is Gov. Mark Warner. The problem for us is that Warner wants to run for President in '08. A loss would wipe away any chance of his getting the nomination. And Virginians may not be so interested in electing Warner to what he clearly wants to be just a 2-year Senate term. Still, if Warner runs, it'll be competitive. The other good prospet for us may be Gen. Claudia Kennedy.

5. Nevada: An uphill battle. Has to be viewed as likely Republican, but we have a shot against Ensign.

6. Montana: Probably not a top target, but deserves exploration nonetheless. Conrad Burns nearly lost in '00 to a hell of a candidate: Bob Schweitzer, who is now the state's incoming Governor. Montana Dems are on the upswing. This seat deserves some exploration.

***

Our vulnerable seats:

1. Nebraska: Republican governor Mike Johanns is likely to challenge Sen. Ben Nelson. This one will go down to the wire.

2. Minnesota: Dayton is in trouble. Rep. Mark Kennedy will probably run.

3. Florida: Nelson will probably be slightly favored if Jeb Bush doesn't run. But if he does run...damn, this will be hard.

4. Michigan: Probably ours. Still, the presidential race was closer than expected and Stabenow will probably face stiff competition.

5. Washington: Cantwell will probably win, but we can't just assume that.

6. North Dakota: Kent Conrad is probably safe, but we can't be too sure, esp. after Daschle fell in S. Dakota. The popular Republican governor wants to run. This could get tough.

***

D-held potential open seats

1. West Virginia: Byrd will probably retire. Rep Mollahan will probalby run on the D side. Rep. Shelly Moore Capito will probalby run on the R side. Will be competitive.

2. New Jersey: Corzine will probably run for Governor next year and will probably appoint his successor who will likely be the frontrunner. Probably Rep. Bob Menendez.

3. Wisconsin: If Herb Kohl retires, this becomes a very vulnerable seat, especially if Tommy Thompson runs.

R-held potential open seats

1. Indiana: If Dick Lugar retires, then the Indiana state Demcratic Party is quite strong and may be able to put on a good fight.

2. Texas: Longshot here, but Kay Bailey Hutchison is probably going to run for Governor. It's a possibility if we run a strong canddiate like Martin Frost or Kirk Watson (fmr. Austin Mayor) or Ron Kirk (fmr. Dallas Mayor) but it'll still be tough. I don't expect Texas Democrats to recover until Bush isn't President anymore.

***

We have some long odds. But if recruit solid challengers and run a national campaign, we have a shot.

Let's make it our goal in the next 2 years to be a real opposition party, shamelessly exposing Bushco.'s arrogance, hubris, and incompetence.

Let's make sure that by 2006, every person in America knows who Tom Delay is and how vile a person he is.

Let's make sure that by 2006, everybody knows who controls Congress and what a bad job they're doing.

[valis]

1. Santorum HAS TO GO!

He will go down. I'm waiting for that day.

[joelogan]

2. Focus on propagating progressive ideas instead of promoting politicians

If you propagate progressive ideas, and sell a progressive agenda, and the rationale for progressive politics, you could get much better candidates, real working people who have real progressive ideas, instead of the well connected neoliberal sellouts you mention above....