Bogus exit polls? Jeez, they look pretty good to me

[TruthIsAll]

All accurate to within ONE percent!

Oh, I forgot.
These don't include OHIO and FLORIDA, the states Bush needed to "win".

ExitPoll4pm Actual Vote
Kerry Bush Kerry Bush

AZ 45 55 45 55
Looks like a pretty good exit poll to me

LA 43 57 42 57
Looks like a pretty good exit poll to me


MI 51 48 51 48
Looks like a pretty good exit poll to me


IA 49 49 49 50
Looks like a pretty good exit poll to me


NM 50 48 50 50
Looks like a pretty good exit poll to me


ME 55 44 53 45
Looks like a pretty good exit poll to me


NV 48 49 48 51
Looks like a pretty good exit poll to me


AR 45 54 45 54
Looks like a pretty good exit poll to me


MO 46 54 46 53
Looks like a pretty good exit poll to me


IL 55 44 55 44
Looks like a pretty good exit poll to me


Avg 48.7 50.2 48.4 50.7
Looks like a pretty good total average to me


OH 51 49 49 51
Looks pretty good to Bush

FL 50 49 47 52
Looks pretty good to Bush

[Cronus Protagonist]

1. You're just a fucking troublemaker

Keep up the good work :)

Show your support for the president, wear a FUCK BUSH button!

http://brainbuttons.com/home.asp?stashid=13
(We usually ship same or next business day by first class mail)

[demochik]

2. I think all polls suck!

There are always errors in the taking of them. We need to stop relying on them solely. I hated watching them b4 the election too. They drove me crazy w/ the see sawing!!!

[TruthIsAll]

3. These polls suck? Not accurate enough for you, I guess.

Hey demochick, do you realize the exit polls are circumstantial proof of fraud?

Think.

[unblock]

5. BIG difference in reliability between pre-election polls and EXIT polls

exit polls are EXTREMELY accurate. no guessing as to who will turn out.

[Nederland]

7. Not true

Exit polls can still be wrong if the exit sample is different from the voting population.

[unblock]

8. duh. yes, it's possible to do anything wrong

my point was simply that many of the flaws and challenges of pre-election polls don't even apply to exit polls.

i never said exit polls were automatically perfect even if done by idiots.

[Nederland]

12. Then

it seems you would have to concede that the exit polls (the early ones that showed Kerry winning) were wrong because they reportedly had a male/female ratio of 41/59.

[unblock]

15. not conceding anything

certainly not without a link, i haven't seen any 41/59 split.

what i HAVE seen were exit polls that showed kerry winning among women AND winning among men, so whatever the gender split, kerry won.

furthermore, it is possible that (a) more women actually voted in whatever state your 41/59 split is from or (b) more women voted early, in which case a normalization based on gender might be appropriate.

but i wouldn't want to call any exit poll "wrong" simply because it found a surprising gender split.

[Cadence]

16. So the theory is

incompetent exit pollsters who know they should poll by gender equally (because we've been using this system reliably for the last hundred years) suddenly deciding to only poll women and in just the battleground states?
That seems more plausible? Like the exit pollsters in 42 other states knew how to do it right but we had fuck ups in 8 states that kept polling just women? Or just whites? hmmmmmm.

[newyawker99]

9. Hi demochik!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[DELUSIONAL]

4. Trouble Makers -- that is SO American

Keep up the nagging -- their propaganda is 24/7

[Nederland]

6. What's the Male/Female ratio of these?

Do you have the raw data?

[earth2chuck]

10. Exit Polls Aside - wanna see how easy Hacking the Vote is?

I have posted detailed, step by step instructions, with screenshots, of how to hack into Diebold's vote tabulation software, change 11,000 votes, then log out and view the new results. Complete with a section analyzing the audit logs and how to delete them.

See it at www.chuckherrin.com/hackthevote.htm

Keep fighting the good fight!

Chuck Herrin, CISSP, CISA, MCSE, CEH
www.chuckherrin.com

[Kingshakabobo]

11. Has this been posted in it's own thread? n/t

[earth2chuck]

13. No, I get an error saying I haven't posted enough yet.

Feel free to start one yourself, if you can.

Chuck

[Cadence]

17. I gave your post it's own thread.

Good job on that website btw!

[Awsi Dooger]

14. What happened to the exit poll numbers from NH, PA, NC, MN?

Come on, Truth. That's why I sometimes accuse you of selective analysis. You know damn well there were 4 or 5 other state polls from that period that were bizarrely favorable to Kerry. You intentionally leave out absurd 4 PM exit poll numbers like Kerry ahead 10 points in New Hampshire, down only 2 in North Carolina, up 9 in both Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Only a one-dimensional numbers nitwit like Steven Freeman, who obviously has no clue about partisan reality, could assert those margins even threaten to resemble the politics of those states.

Here's a link with related quotes from the Mystery Pollster, who knows more about polling and exit polling than any of us and is anything but pro-Bush: http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/

"But there is something else interesting about these results: Kerry's standing against Bush in all ten states surpassed what he received on election night. At 4:28 Pacific Time (7:38 Eastern, Shafer posted more recent numbers for an even larger list of states, 16 in all, plus the national result (51% Kerry, 48% Bush). Again, the same pattern: Kerry's performance on the partial exit polls surpassed his ultimate performance nationally and in 15 of 16 states. So whatever was happening, it was not just the random variation due to sampling error. If you don't believe me, try flipping a coin and see how often you can get heads to come up 16 of 17 times.

The NEP officials seem to concede there was some Democratic bias in the early numbers. An Associated Press story from yesterday said:

The NEP had enough concerns that its early exit polls were skewing too heavily toward Kerry that it held a conference call with news organizations mid-afternoon urging caution in how that information was used. Early polls in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Connecticut were then showing a heavier Kerry vote than anticipated.

Pollsters anticipate a post-mortem to find out why that happened. Some possibilities: Democrats were more eager to speak to pollsters than Republicans, or Kerry supporters tended to go to the polls earlier in the day than Bush voters."