Isn't a 4 way tie in Iowa the ideal for Wesley Clark?

[DaisyUCSB]

People here seem to rationalizing one way or the other that whatever happens is good for there candidate in Iowa, but I think the only logical thing is that no clear frontrunner coming from Iowa is the Ideal for Clark. Either that or Gephardt winning it. (I think it's safe to say Gephardt and Lieberman are the 2 major candidates without comparable excitement to the other major candidates).

Am I wrong?

[Padraig18]

1. I think Dean winning and Kerry finishing a strong 2nd...

... could spell REAL trouble for Gen. Clark, to be succinct. They both get a HUGE 'bounce' out of Iowa, and Kerry starts peeling Clark votes off; Dean supporters will remain rock-solid, so I see nothing but bad news coming out of Iowa for Gen. Clark--- nothing.

[Clark4Prez]

5. The Kerry/Clark myth

Although I don't know for sure if Iowa will impact NH, there is some historic implications that it won't, I would like to address your view that Kerry will pull votes from Clark in NH.

On the Jan 9-11 NH poll, Clark was at 19% and Kerry was at 10%. The Jan 14-16 has Clark at 22% (a 3 point jump) and Kerry at 18% (an 8 point jump). Dean dropped from 36% to 28% (an 8 point drop) Lieberman dropped 4 points during that time as well. The only other candidate that moved up was Edwards who jumped 5 points from 3% to 8%. Undecided dropped 3 points from 17% to 14%.

I think this shows that Clark and Kerry are pulling votes from undecided, Dean, Lieberman, and a perhaps Gephardt. (Edwards is also pulling from these groups.) The rise of Kerry in Iowa, combined with Dean's fall, shows that he is more of a threat to Dean than to Clark. At least at this point in the game.

[Bucky]

2. I think you're wrong.

Clark would have benefited from Dean winning and everyone else failing. This would discredit the electibility of the sundry Congressmembers running and turn it into a two-way race. In a Dean vs Clark match up, I think Clark does best.

The worst thing for Clark tactically is for Edwards to do well. It looks like that's gonna happen. Edwards is the real threat to Clark, not Kerry who I still don't think will play after New Hampshire.

But this is just insider baseball. Ferget it. I think we should all just work for our candidates and not sweat the strategy part.

[deminflorida]

3. I see it this way...

They will be weak coming out of Iowa. They've done nothing in the average voter's minds but tear each other to pieces. Clark is well dug in up in N.H. now and heavy artillery is arriving from the Clinton camp.

Look for a possible N.H. upset with Clark emerging as the clear front-runner. If that happens, there will be no stopping him on Feb. 3 thru Super Tuesday.

Dean's Tax plan that he is supposed to unveil on Feb. 2, should be interesting. If it does too little, too late for Middle Class America, i.e. Middle Class Tax Reforms comes into play around 2006 or 2008...then you can expect his national numbers to fall rapidly.

[ClarkGraham2004]

4. I think if it's a Gep-Dean-Kerry scenario that would help Clark.

The only no-win situation I see is for Dean. He has really taken a beating in the last week and any placing other than a huge 1st place finish will be seen as a letdown, after having led in Iowa for months. A situation were Dean comes in 3rd or 4th would be huge for Clark, as it would possibly knock Dean out altogether and Clark can focus on Kerry more going into NH. Plus all the attacking the Iowa candidates have been doing at each other has helped Clark. He gets more uninterupted time in NH, building a network and getting his name out. If Dean doesn't win Iowa, Clark has the money and is building the network necessary to take NH, which would essentially be HUGE.

[DaisyUCSB]

7. I tend to agree with you, by the way I like your name

that's who all of my democrat professors of history and political science say would be the best ticket to beat Bush.

[...Alltogethernow]

6. Us Wesley Clark supporters believe it is

n/t

[mikehiggins]

8. Abso-positi-lutely! eom

[arewethereyet]

9. no because everyone is thinking about those four, not him

a blowout by Gephardt would have been best for Clark or even one from Dean. A Kerry blowout hurts because NH is in MA's back yard and they love returning heros. One from Edwards ignites him at Clarks expense.

IMHO this is a terrible outcome for Clark and you can just put a fork in Lieberman.

[gulliver]

10. I think it would be the end of Dean's candidacy.

Kerry and Clark would both pick up points in NH. Then loads of Dems will watch Kerry and Clark in debate on Jan. 22. I think Clark will outshine Kerry there and win NH.

Just my opinion. I would take no glee in the loss for either Dean or Kerry, both of whom I respect and like. I am just very enthusiastic about Clark and what I think he can do for our party, country, and world.

[arewethereyet]

11. End ? nah but he becomes ordinary and shuffled back in the pack

so could he get back in it would seem more a more reasonable point to ponder.

[gulliver]

12. Could Dean get back in it afterward?

Possibly. I just believe Clark's case is so strong that once people take more notice of him, he'll win. That would seem very likely should Dean and Gephardt both fail to win Iowa.

[shivaji]

13. Nope! Because now he has FOUR challengers instead of 1 or 2.