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though:
As both presidential campaigns try to figure out where their "numbers" are going to come from on election day here in Florida, I've heard more than a few strategists talk about an election night "boomerang" in the Kerry/Bush popular vote count. Everybody expects the state's more rural (and GOP leaning) counties to report their results first... and the largest counties (Miami-Dade and Broward) to report their election results last... perhaps several hours after the rest of the state. Between these two counties four years ago, Al Gore received 250,000 more votes than George W. Bush. This year, if the state is close again, George W. Bush will likely have a raw vote lead over John Kerry for several hours after the polls close. Both parties expect that. (In the 19 panhandle states 4 years ago, Bush received 100,000 more votes than Gore.) The question is, how big will that lead be... and will it be large enough to hold off Kerry's gain in south Florida when those precincts start pouring in around midnight. Both campaigns have been looking at the numbers, precinct by precint... and so have broadcast journalists who got burned by not understanding the "boomerang" four years ago.
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