Don't sweat about the NJ poll. The interpretation of it is misleading.

[milkyway]

The 46-46 tie occurs when the pollsters push undecideds to choose one candidate or another. It is also filtered to include only the perceived likely voters. It doesn't show much of a trend away from Kerry, and bush's number is stable at about 46%, which is a loser for him.

If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'.

.................................JK..........GB
Oct 27, 2004............46..........46
Oct 19, 2004............49..........45
Oct 6, 2004..............49..........46
Sep 21, 2004............48..........48


The real numbers are located in the next question asked of registered voters.

If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)

............................... JK..........GB
Oct 27, 2004...........45..........41
Oct 19, 2004...........46..........39
Oct 6, 2004.............44..........42
Sep 21, 2004...........47..........43
Aug 25, 2004..........49..........39
Aug 5, 2004............49..........36
Jun 23, 2004...........46..........40
May 20, 2004..........46..........43


Bush's number for registered voters is consistently in the low forties, where he is today. Given past history of undecideds eventually going heavily against the incumbent, bush looks to lose New Jersey by at least 10 pts. It's not until the pollster pushes the undecideds that bush even gets to 46%, which is still a sure loser. I haven't heard yet about either candidate going to Jersey, so their internal polls are telling them it's not in play.

[JuniorPlankton]

1. thank you!

[aden_nak]

2. Bush was here in NJ last week. But briefly.

And I think Edwards tooled through as well. But that should tell you who has more ground to cover, eh? NJ is going blue.

[Thrill]

3. Wasn't there a Star ledger poll

out last week showing Kerry up by double digits. Don't sweat a Quinappec Poll

[speedoo]

4. Great analysis.

I recall hearing that in 2000, there were similar late poll results showing shrub doing well.

But on election day, NJ Democrats voted for Al Gore and the actual results were basically in line with party affiliation. I think that if Rove really believed they had a shot at NJ, they would be back there again this week. They're not.