Which state's returns will be the first sign Kerry will win!!!!

[ncteechur]

[jab105]

1. How much he wins PA by...and if NH comes in for Kerry immediately...

n/t

And FLORIDA!!!!!

[TruthIsAll]

25. Kentucky. They report first. Not that he'll win, but he will do much

better than expected. A harbinger of things to come.

[tcfrogs]

2. Gotta be Ohio

Don't know when the polls close, but that's my guess.

[goodwalt]

3. OHIO!!!!

THAT is the one that will have every broadcaster forecasting *'s demise.

[vetwife]

41. Ohio and NH

[sundancekid]

4. ohio will be awhile to decide probably ... so I pick when Virginia is BLUE

[LibInternationalist]

5. Virginia

[Cats Against Frist]

35. I agree -- Virginia blue, Kerry wins

[FrankenforMN]

Hawaii

[NNadir]

6. Missippi and Georgia. When Kerry's totals show him close in these

states, the pundits will all begin explaining to us how they knew it all along that Kerry had enormous momentum that was unassailable.

[tedoll78]

7. New Hampshire.

I've been saying this for a week: New Hampshire could be a microcosm of the race.

Bush barely won it in 2000, just like other key states.
Nader was a factor in 2000.
The ground game in 2000 was pretty high.

If Kerry wins New Hampshire handily, it means a few things:
1) Nader isn't a factor.
2) Our turnout machine is dominating.
3) Independents and Undecideds are breaking heavily for Kerry.
4) New voters are actually showing-up.
5) We're going to have a very nice night.

If Kerry barely wins, it's inconclusive.

And if Kerry loses, break-out the Maalox.. it'd be a looong night.

Judging from how things stand, the first scenario is starting to look likely.

[sandnsea]

8. Well

I don't think Kerry losing would necessarily mean a long night, just means the gun nuts won the state. Other states have alot more economic problems than NH, so that'll mean alot too. But, otherwise your scenario is dead-on. NH, especially if it's big for Kerry, is the first return I'm looking to.

[cubsfan forever]

11. Hear, Hear!

I have been trying to tell that to my New England friends for months! NH going for Clinton in 1992 was the harbinger of things to come. That's one of the reasons that Smuggler's Notch is the very first poll to open on election day.

Professor 2

[tedoll78]

12. I thought it was Dixville's Notch?

Oh well..

[cubsfan forever]

22. You may be right

I thought it was Smuggler's, but maybe not. Whatever, it's that little, tiny place in NH that opens real early on election day. Thanks for the post!


Professor 2

[tedoll78]

27. No prob.

I watch the voting there on C-SPAN at midnight every year. There are usually anywhere from 20 to 30 people living in the town. They draw from a hat to see who votes first, now that the town's founder died.

He'd lobbied for a law in New Hampshire for his town. The law ended-up going as thus: if a locality's election officials can confirm that ALL residents of that locality have voted, then they are allowed to release the results of their vote to the media. Since Dixville Notch only has that small number of voters, they get to pull this media stunt every four years.

Such a geek I am.. :P

[foo_bar]

34. I think Smuggler's is in Vermont

confirmation-
http://www.smuggs.com/flash/index.html

[cubsfan forever]

40. Thank you for clearing this up

for me. At least I know there is a Smuggler's Notch somewhere. I love all of you at DU!

Professor 2

[teamster633]

29. It's Dixville Notch.

[Renew Deal]

9. Florida, Ohio or Virginia

If Virginia comes through it's pretty much a lock.

[whistle]

10. Florida will go to Kerry shortly after the polls close here and by....

...midnight, the BushCo will be filing pleas to recount etc. but it won't work because the majority of the country will throw these bastards out on their hind ends. The trick will be to bury them after the elections so that we never have to go through the threat that the neo-conservatives and BushCo operatives posed ever again. Arrests, convictions and jail time for the violators of the public trust will be a good place to begin that process.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

14. I think that

it is important that the neocons be put on trial for their crimes. Nixon was not, and that is a reason that creatures such as Rove were allowed to fester.

[snippy]

33. You make an excellent point about Nixon and Rove. n/t

[A Simple Game]

43. Exactly, 100 percent agree.

Nixon was spared for the good of the country, my butt.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

13. PA,NH andOhio

[Jackpine Radical]

15. Won't be FL.

We won't have the FL results until sometime in 2005 at the earliest.

Unless, of course, the Supremes get involved before that.

[Nashyra]

16. Forida

but don't forget that the pan handle does not close until central time. So the polls will close after OHIO.

[StevenD]

17. I say Virginia!

If we win Virginia or lose by less than 2%, we will be smiling at the end of the evening.

[terrya]

18. Ohio. When Kerry wins Ohio, it's over for Bush.

Simple as that.

[kevin881]

19. margins in VA, WV and NH should tell a lot

even if kerry loses these, but the margin is very very close, then turnout for dems is higher than expected.

[fujiyama]

20. Upper midwest states

The very first indicator is OH or FL. If Kerry wins either, we can start feeling good.

But the real indicator will be the upper midwest - IA, MN, and WI. They will all be close...and Kerry must grab MN and WI or IA and NM.

That's assuming he wins OH as well. The left coast won't be close this time.

[Kathleen04]

21. Ohhiiioooooooooo

:)

[maine_raptor]

23. Maine

[DaveinMD]

24. Virginia

the polls close their at 7 pm eastern. IF we win there, Bush is toast.

[DoYouEverWonder]

26. When the first red state goes to Kerry

then I will proceed to get as drunk as possible.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

42. that will be NH, so you'll have to wait for OH

or WV.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. It won't be returns, it will be projections

The networks will undoubtedly be more cautious this year, and consequential sheer numbers not available for hours.

I doubt Ohio wil be called at 7 PM Eastern. The key hour is 8 PM, when many polls close including Florida. We will get some important calls and trends released at that point.

[Pithy Cherub]

30. Florida, Ohio, and PA

for good measure then On Wisconsin!

[LiberalFighter]

31. Indiana

Indiana is the first state with predicition. If they don't have Indiana in gw*s column by 6:30PM then they are cooked.


NOW to irritate the repugs and to follow the pledge by the news media to hold out in their announcement until the polling locations close Indiana should not be announced until after 7PM.

Florida is not suppose to be announced until the Central Zone part of the state has closed.

Indiana has at least 5 counties near Chicago that remains on Central Time Zone while the rest of the state goes to Eastern Time Zone. Therefore those 5 counties don't close their polling locations until 7PM EST while the rest of the state closes at 6PM EST.

[demwing]

32. There are 4 battlegrounds to watch, and 4 red states

at two different times of the night

First, check the battleground states of OH and NH, and the red states VA and NC.

If the battlegrounds are close, it means little.

If we sail through the battlegrounds and are close in those two red states, then move ahead a few time zones and do the same thing with NM and NV, and CO and AZ.

If we sail through those states, its all over for *. If not, its a long night of shortly chewed nails for us.

[Gogi]

36. Missouri

Iread today that a record 4.2 million Missourians have registered to vote. There are only 4.3 million Missourians of voting age. Albeit there are some duplicate registrations due to people moving but that still means a heck of a lot of Missourians are registered!

[fizzana]

37. The key will be blue states being declared early and red

states being declared later.

PA could be the first real indicator. The earlier it's called the better Kerry would have done. Ohio and especially Florida are going to be closer than PA so they will probably only be resolved late in the evening.

Also the longer we wait for VA, NC, WV the stronger we look.

[swag]

38. Virginia

[troublemaker]

39. VA and NH