Mathematically possible to win EC with .00001% of vote

[ThoughtCriminal]

Note an emphasis on MATHEMATICALLY. Nothing close to this will ever happen, but it shines some light on what's screwy about our system. In reality however, it is quite possible to have and Electoral Vote victory with less than 40% of the Popular vote.

This is some quick back of envelope calculations. If someone wants to crunch real numbers, be my guest.

Here's how:

In the 11 largest states, only one person shows up to vote and these 11 individuals vote for "Candidate A". In all remaining states and DC, every eligible voter shows up and votes for "Candidate B". Candidate A wins the electoral college with 11 popular votes.

Outrageous? Sure, but the last guy got in with 5 votes. No one elses really mattered.

[aldian159]

1. Actually its eight states

You only need to win CA, TX, FL, MI, IL, NY, OH and PA to win the White House.

Makes it even more frightening.

[existentialist]

9. 233 EV

Actually, my count of your 8 states gives only 233 electoral votes. Of course I did it all in my head without checking anything, so I could have made mistakes easily.

Then again, what does the fact that I at least think I could pull the EV numbers of those states out of my head on no notice tell you about just how obsessed I am about all of this?

[ThoughtCriminal]

13. Here's the 11

CA - 55
TX - 34
NY - 31
FL - 27
IL - 21
PA - 21
OH - 20
MI - 17
GA - 15
NJ - 15
NC - 15

Total 271

[RobertSeattle]

2. That's amusing - EV is ridiculous for a national office

Only in America...

[demolifer2004]

3. 5 votes?

I thought you just showed you need 11 votes?

[last1standing]

6. SCOTUS.

n/t

[existentialist]

10. 5 votes

(He means that Bush beat Gore 5-4 in the Supreme Court.)

[frogfromthenorth2]

4. I don't want to offend anybody here but your voting system (from

the electoral college to the fact that States are each in charge of voting) makes the USA look like a third world "democracy"....

[bryant69]

7. Well there are historical reasons

I mean let's not pretend that there is anything sinister or evil in the Electoral college; the problem with it is that it is outdated. By and large the system has worked well enough for most of our existance, it's only relitively recently that new technological innovations and societal changes have made it obsolete.

Frankly when it was put in place there were not that many who thought that running a Nation along Democratic Principles would work in the long run anyway.

States rights made sense at one time, and frankly, without a constitution that respected states rights, the nation would not have existed.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[frogfromthenorth2]

8. Well, I have to agree with that.... Thanks for reminding me....

[TruthIsAll]

5. That is total crap. 40% of the vote means 5-20 Electoral Votes, at best.

"In reality however, it is quite possible to have and Electoral Vote victory with less than 40% of the Popular vote".


Whose reality? No one has ever come close to winning the electoral vote with just 48% of the two-party popular vote.

Check the probabilities here.
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[ThoughtCriminal]

11. Actually, the main reason it has not happened

The only thing that make it implausible in the current political enviroment is that the largest states (CA, TX, NY, FL for example) are currently split in party loyalty.

It would be more likely in a 3-way race in which a popular 3rd party candidate actually wins some electoral votes.

[existentialist]

12. Abraham Lincoln did.

I don't remember the details, except that, besides being bitterly contested, the election of 1860 had 4 parties winning electoral votes, and all had significant popular vote percentages--when that happens a minority popular vote can very easily create a majority electoral vote--and, arguably, it is precisely problems like this that the electoral college was set up to resolve.


There is also the relatively reasonable possibility that the electoral college this election could actually result in a 269 to 269 tie.

(And that's just one reason that it's also very important how you vote for Congress.)

[ThoughtCriminal]

14. 1992 & 1996 examples

A bit more research today

1992 Bush Popular=37.45% EC=168
1996 Dole Popular=40.71% EC=159

Neither was close to an electoral Vote majority since they did not win the big states necessary, but far more than the 5-20 "at best".

http://www2.gwu.edu/~action/maps9296.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. TIA Was Referring To Two Man Races....