My observations 10/21/04

[southern democrat]

1. The race is tied as far as we can tall with available polling.

2. A few days ago Bush made his major war on terror speech in NJ. Now don't you think he wanted to be as close to 9-11 site to do this? Do you reckon NJ was as close as he could get? I'd say he probabaly wouldn't have gotten a warm welcome in NYC. That wouldn't look too good on FOX would it now.

3. While Bush is out calling Kerry a "Liberal" trying to shore up his base, Kerry is out hunting Geese trying to get Gun owner votes. Looks like Kerry is a litte more comfortable with his base than Bush is with his.

4. Kerry is leading Bush in newspaper endorsements and has picked up several Bush papers from 2000. How is this not a good sign?

5. Kerry has a real good amount of money left for the last sprint at the end of campaign.

6. Any remember this: If Bush couldn't beat Gore without the hideous record he has now, how is he going to beat a formidible opponent such as Kerry with his hideous record.

KERRY WILL GET MORE VOTES THAN GEORGE BUSH (LETS PRAY THEY ARE COUNTED)

[swag]

1. You know, the money edge that Kerry/DNC/527s/PACs have

over Gore 2000 gives Kerry a significant, often overlooked, edge over the Gore 2000 race: financial parity (at the very least) with the Rs. It was alluded to in the DNC strategist memo from last week. And www.mydd.com has a blurb about the amount of money partisan and non-partisan folks will be spending on voter turnout this year. The ACT, Moveon, and DNC turnout efforts will be unprecedented for Dems.

I'm with you. If we work hard and work smart for two more weeks, we might just do pretty well.

[Jack from Charlotte]

2. Disagree with one item, SD............

AWOL running around yelling, "Librul-librul" isn't to shore up his base, IMO, it's to raise Kerry's negatives. He has nothing to run on and by now everyone knows who he is. His disapproval numbers are high (47+) and won't change now. The only thing he can do is try again to raise Kerry's negatives in order to get UND's and "shaky committeds" to come to him.

I'll say this, too..... take whatever poll you like.... say the one with AWOL 47 Kerry 45..... that leaves 8 points for Nadar, other and undecided. Leave one point for other and 80% of the other 7 points will always go to the challenger. So it'd be Kerry 50.6 AWOL 49 and 1 to other/Nadar. And that's a winner.

Mark my words.... one point to other and then 80% of the und's and others go to Kerry.

If the polls show this tied going into 11/2...... we win easy.