New Reuters/Zogby, Kerry 45 Bush 45 - Kerry "Eroding" Shrub's Numbers

[ruggerson]

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=BSZOOVD4Q12X2CRBAELCFEY?type=topNews&storyID=6541329


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush and Democratic Sen. John Kerry remain tied in the race for the White House two weeks before the Nov. 2 election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

For the second consecutive day, Bush and Kerry were deadlocked at 45 percent apiece in the three-day tracking poll. About 7 percent of likely voters say they are still undecided between the president and the Massachusetts senator.

"The candidates are still in a statistical dead heat, with Kerry making incremental gains in a steady drip-drip-drip that has eroded the president's lead," said pollster John Zogby. Bush had a four-point lead three days ago.

The number of likely voters who believe Bush deserves to be re-elected dropped from 47 percent to 45 percent over the last four days, with the number of voters who believe it is time for someone new climbing from 48 percent to 51 percent.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. Once again, please put the poll down and slowly back away

They are horribly inaccurate and mean little or nothing. For one, it does not account for record Dem turnout, which is all but a foregone conclusion at this point, nor does it take into account millions of young Americans who use only cell phones (myself included).

[Stuckinthebush]

6. How do you account for historical accuracy of polls?

The final polls of respected organizations have been shown to be fairly accurate over the past elections with a few exceptions. Zogby did a wonderful job in 2000 predicting the outcome.

If a poll does not reflect our desires, it doesn't mean that it is terribly flawed. The pollsters make a living off of accuracy. If they are way off, then they will never get more work. It doesn't make sense from a business perspective for Zobgy to have terrible methodology.

Check out this information from the National Council of Public Polls

http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm

It gives the accuracy of polling for the 2000 presidential race.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

7. How do I account for the historical accuracy of the polls you ask?

It doesn't mean a goddamn thing to me when one polls says Bush is up 8 points and another says Kerry is up 4. They both can't be right.

[WI_DEM]

9. One thing that pisses me off is

People who profess not to care about polls, yet coming onto every poll thread to say "don't trust polls" or "back away"--first, if people follow to polls, so what? it doesn't mean that they arent working hard for the candidate. Second, If you don't care for polls, why come into several threads and lecture people? obviously you are reading what the polls say so you must have some kind of interest. If you don't care for these threads just--back away from them.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

14. Actually, that's not it at all, but thanks for putting words in my mouth.

I come into these threads because I don't want people flipping out thinking the world's going to end when the obviously inaccurate polls say Kerry's losing by 8 points only to find out that's not the case the next day when another poll has Kerry in the lead. We can't afford such pessimism right now. So instead of ASSuming, perhaps you should just keep your pithiness to yourself, no?

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

2. this was yesterdays numbers?

well anyway, the polls mean nothing

Work means everything

Forget the polls

Do what YOU can do to help John Kerry win!

[Doosh]

3. is this today or yesterday?

[ruggerson]

4. Today 10/19

[DemocracyInaction]

5. This is TODAY's new poll with the numbers holding steady but Zogby

also makes another statement. He says that 51% think it's time to get rid of Bush and have another president BUT only 45% will vote for Kerry and thus Kerry just needs to convince these 5% that he can do the job as well as Bush------------a brain dead chipmunk could do the job as well as Bush.

[Zomby Woof]

8. you're being mean

To braindead chipmunks!

[Sugarcoated]

11. Sr. Political Analyst at MSNBC

was on Countdown yesterday, and he said it's the approval rating of the incumbant that is most reliable. If it's under 50%, that's the percentage (belied in almost all past elections since polling began) that will vote for the incument on election day. The rest break for the challenger - so no matter if Kerry's a few percentage points under Bush, his numbers will break higher right at the end. And this is if you believe the polls are accurate, which I don't. This election is under polling new registered Democrats. In 1952, the polls predicted Truman's defeat - but polls were inaccurate because only the rich had phones. This election will be similar - bank on it folks.

[ParrotheadTerp]

10. Polls this year

While Zogby was dead on in 2000, I have no faith in polls this year. Not because of some big conspiracy that many on here have, but because of the amount of new voters, and those that skipped the last couple elections.

I think Kerry has a 5-10 bump from these new voters. So unless Bush goes up that much, I am very confident.

P.S. I am nornally a lurker on here, I think it's time i start to post :)

[RevCheesehead]

12. Welcome to the Light of DU, Parrothead!

:hi:
Lurk no more, and share your thoughts with us!

[Sugarcoated]

13. Welcome to DU ParrotheadTerp :)

[F.Gordon]

15. From my LBN post: It's Kerry 45.2% and bush* 44.5%

And...

Also, from the daily tracking info/comments....

It is also worth noting that his (bush*) lead among the investor class has shrunk to 5%.

And a HUGE 4 day shift in the Southern Region

On 10/15/04 it was bush*: 58.9% and Kerry 34.0%
Today it's bush* 50.9% and Kerry 42.5%.

Note: I'm not a big fan of "polls" myself, but if I had to look towards any one poll for some kind of indicator it would be Zogby.