New Jersey variation on Rove's "Inevitability" play.

[patcox2]

This spin coming from Rove, and the visit by Chimpy today to New Jersey, its an interesting variation on the classic rovian "inevitability" tactic.

Since way back Rove has been known for a tactic of pretending he has a huge lead, of acting so confident, of trying to create momentum and a sense of inevitability (and to demoralize the opposition) by acting as if its a done deal when its still very much in dispute.

Josh Marshall today said that Bush's visit to New Jersey today was an example.

I think its more than that, its a subtle spin on the strategy. Rove is actually hyping a theme with New Jersey, not just the simple message of victory.

He's hyping the theme "People Trust Bush To Make Them Safer."

Here is what I mean. All of the headlines here in NJ for the last 4 or 5 days has been about how "NJ leaning toward Bush because of security fears." Variation: "New Jersey, which lost 700 people on 9/11, trendingh towards Bush because New Jerseyans are particularly concerned with terrorrism." Then you read the story, and there is no backup for the headline except un-identified "political experts." Then another AP story today finally identified its "political expert": Karl Rove.

The thing is, this is complete bullshit. The New Jersey race has tightened because of McGreevey, not because of terror fears. Noone, not one person, who knows New Jersey politics would say anything different. The race here tightened when McGreevey resigned. There is a general taint of corruption around McGreevey, but I think the real damaging thing was the "delayed resignation" issue, creating the perception that the Democrats here manipulated the system to avoid a gubernatorial election this year (people still don't like the way Lautenberg got on the ballot in 2002).

But Rove is spinning that its about Bush and Security, that this northeastern state is turning to Bush because he makes us feel safer. This is horseshit.

This is an attempt to rehabilitate Bush after the first debate, where Kerry really scored on security.

Kerry needs to come here tomorrow and give a speach with the facts and figures of how Bush has shortchanged New Jersey and all the coastal states, on security, about how we are more vulnerable, not less, because Bush has been sending homeland security money to Idaho, rather than the coastlines and the ports and the airports.

[dennis4868]

1. One thing I

would have Kerry say in NJ and everywhere else for that matter is:

WHO WAS THE PRESIDENT ON 911?

WHO IGNORED ALL THE PDBs?

WHAT ABOUT THE PDB THAT SAID, BIN LADEN DETERMINED TO ATTACK INSIDE THE USA?

WHAT ABOUT THE WH TERRORISM CZAR NOT GETTING A MEETING WITH BUSH TO SHAKE THE TRESS?

NOW, WHO'S YOUR DADDY?

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

2. And if he comes...

I challenge him to go to those one of those parts of NJ where no one would ever expect him to go. Republican stronhold counties, not the usual places. Get out here, really get into their faces and tell the true dinkum.

[soupkitchen]

3. Most of the New Jersey polls are still tracking a ten percent undecided

Historically this should break overwhelmingly for the challenger.
And in fact, Democratic leaders in New Jersey still feel NJ is safely in Kerry's camp.
I think you're right that Bush/Rove is using the statistical glitch in the NJ polls (by far the highest undecideds I've seen) to try to create momentum for the campaign. Maybe to try to get Kerry to spend more resources here then he wants.
This from a NJ voter.

[WI_DEM]

4. We can play that game too

Ohio, Florida, Colorado, NH, Nevada, WVA, Ark are Bush states which are competitve.

[lancdem]

5. Kerry should not go to NJ

That's exactly what Rove wants, to draw him away from battleground red states like Ohio and Florida, to defend a state he will win.

He's not buying it, and neither am I. Rove also had Bush campaign in NJ in 2000, claiming it was in play, and Gore won by 16 points there.