Zogby: Momentum Shifting to Kerry

[Donny247]

Kerry and Bush are dead even in the latest Zogby poll at 45% each. Kerry has caught up to Bush on favorability, and is now leading Bush when "leaners" are included:

"To bring Ronald Reagan into this picture: 'There they go again’. Kerry had a good day on Sunday. If I were to factor in the leaners in the 3-day track, it would be Kerry 47.2% to Bush 46.6%. I’m not sure it’s wise to put leaners in the equation at this point in the campaign because it is artificial -- but that is how close all of this is proving to be."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=895

[leyton]

1. From the New Yorker:

The New Yorker has an interesting piece on Zogby this week, here's a passage:

"Lately, in fact, has derived some satisfaction from ovserving the wild vacillations of the Gallup election polls - Bush thirteen points ahead in mid-September, eight points ahead at the end of the month, dead even with Kerry on October 4th - because he finds it implausible that such enormous swings reflect actual changes in public opinion. 'I mean, good debate, but it wasn't that good,' he says. He concludes that Gllup's polls are less reliable than his own. 'Zogby is more volatile, but Zogby polls are less volatile,' he says. It's all a matter of technique.
"'How do I get a handle on this election or any other?' he asked the road builders. 'I asked on question the Saturday before the election in 2000. I called my call center in Utica and said, "Put this in the poll: 'You live in the land of Oz, and the candidates are the Tin Man, who's all brains and no heart, and the Scarecrow, who's all heart and no brains. Who would you vote for?'" The next day, I called Uitca and said, "Whaddaya got?" They said, "Well, we've got Gore--," I said, "I don't care about Gore. What's Oz?" It was 46.2 for the Tin Man and 46.2 for the Scarecrow. It was right there that I knew I wasn't going to know what was going to happen. But I asked this question again two weeks ago and the Tin Man led by ten points.'"

[hedda_foil]

2. All the Duers who took that poll wondered about that question.

Now we know where it came from ... and that, when push came to shove, the voters this year (unlike 2000) are far more likely to go with the candidate they think has a brain.

[MazeRat7]

3. So that is where that odd question came from in a recent poll....

it was a hold over from the 2000 election polling...

Thanks!

MZr7

[leyton]

4. Yeah, although I think it's a little less relevant.

This time there are more substantial differences than "brain vs. bush" between Kerry and Bush than there were (perceived) between Gore and Bush. Still, it's a good sign.