Defense source: Lebanese punished Hizbullah for war

[Fozzledick]

Hizbullah failed to win Lebanon's elections on Sunday largely because of widespread dissatisfaction among the Lebanese people over the Second Lebanon War, a defense source said on Monday.

"For the entire time since the end of the war , Hizbullah said the conflict strengthened it, since it was the only one to stand up against Israel. These elections prove that the Lebanese didn't buy that claim," the source said.

"The bottom line is Hizbullah was punished for the war," he added.

Lebanese citizens were highly aware of the economic costs and other damage incurred to Lebanon by the conflict, the source said.

"Lebanon said 'no' to Iran. The elections results are bad news for Syria, too. These parties paid a price for past aggressions," the source continued.

...

The elections in Lebanon could also have a knock-on effect in Gaza, where Hamas's popularity is dropping with Gazans dissatisfied with the current situation, the source argued.

"Hamas may now be thinking, look what happened in Lebanon. If we go for another democratic process in Gaza, we may not receive the support we had before," he said.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1244371045781&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[Name removed]

1. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Alamuti Lotus]

2. just gotta spin some way to make this about you?

Not 'you' as in "Fozzledick", but 'you' as in the little arrogant warlord spouting off.

[azurnoir]

3. And a counter spin

FOREIGN policy experts and commentators have been trying to elucidate an “Obama doctrine” ever since the new US president took office. Lebanon’s surprise election result, in which a pro-Western coalition narrowly triumphed, suggests these analysts have got things the wrong way round. Whatever the theory may be, the Beirut turnabout is the first, circumstantial evidence of a tangible “Obama effect” in the Middle East. It could be catching.

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=7§ion=0&article=123463&d=10&m=6&y=2009

[Alamuti Lotus]

4. if Hizbu'llah was punished, why did all 11 out of its 11 candidates win?

if anything, it was punished for choosing allies that could not place as well a batting average--Franjiyyeh, Aoun, & Amal in particular. Aoun was punished for his long long running feud with the baffoonish Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir, Franjiyeh as well to a lesser extent.

It has also been astutely speculated that the "Opposition" intentionally positioned itself to remain so, particularly hinted at by the last-minute actions of Nasrallah and Aoun.

At any rate, the Opposition actually won the (essentially meaningless) popular vote by the same margin that Obama did (also meaningless, as archaic conventions govern both electoral systems).

[Alamuti Lotus]

5. on the other hand

As mentioned Hizbu'llah candidates swept every race they participated in; Franjiyeh kept his seat, Free Patriotic Movement made gains in key districts and overall increased their seats by 6, and as mentioned the Opposition lists overall thoroughly trounced Hariri Inc in the (meaningless) popular vote. All of this in spite of the tremendous amount of money that Saudi Arabian princes threw into the campaigns, blatent threats by Israel, and the campaign of bribery and extortion carried out by a variety of US officials (including the Vice President Joe Biden and secretary of somethingorother Jeffrey Feldman). Fucked up system keeps everything the way it is (read: 'fucked up') as if that is some kind of miracle -- now why does that sound so familiar.. I will form a political party and demand that I be 'punished' in the same fashion, after I have some kind of pills prescribed for my crankiness which was so astutely diagnosed by Dr. Fozzledick.

[Fozzledick]

6. I think I'm seeing symptoms of Sore-Loser Syndrome

Hizbullah was favored to win a solid majority and take control of the government after a heavy investment of both money and covert action by Iranian intelligence. Instead they provoked a huge backlash from Christian and Sunni Muslim voters that somehow got the impression that Hizbullah doesn't have their best interests at heart, and have apparently canceled their backup plan for a military coup in the face of such overwhelming popular opposition.

Their planned victory celebration on the Gaza border didn't go so well either...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=124x277556

[Alamuti Lotus]

7. overwhelming popular opposition as evidenced by attaining the (worthless) majority vote?

should Obama consider himself hamstrung being of the 45% of people who voted for McPalin? That's pretty overwhelming opposition of the same scale.

[Richard01]

9. Original Message

Do you actually know the difference between Hamas and
Hizbollah? 
One is Lebsanon/Shi'a and the other Gaza/Sunni. 
Can you guess which is which?

[LeftishBrit]

8. Could someone with a bit more knowledge of Lebanese parties fill me in?

I am glad Hizbullah did badly, but I don't know much about their opponents - I hope they are not even worse?

[Alamuti Lotus]

10. Sure

Opposition (57)
Change and Reform (27)
Free Patriotic Movement (Tayyar Al-Watani Al-Horr) (19)
Marada Movement (Tayyar Al Marada) (4)
Tashnag Party: (2)
Democratic Party: (2)

March 8 Alliance (30)
Party of God (Hezbollah) (13)
Hope Movement (Harakat Amal): (11)
Syrian Social Nationalist Party (al-Hizb al-Qawmi al-souri al ijtima'i) (2)
Ba'ath Party (2)
Others (2)

Government (71)
March 14 Alliance (69)
Future movement(Tayyar Al Mustaqbal) (30)
Progressive Socialist Party (Hizb al-Taqadummi al-Ishtiraki) (10)
Lebanese Forces (al-Quwāt al-Lubnāniyya) (5)
Phalangist or Kataeb Party (Hizb al-Kataeb) (5)
Others (19)
Independents (2)<10>

See this link for the source,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_general_election,_2009#Results
and this link to compare to 2005,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_general_election,_2005


Now, a couple corrections -- Hizbu'llah did not do badly, they won 100% of the seats they had contested, winning most of their seats at high margins. Hizbu'llah's allies also made gains, Gen. Aoun's 'Change & Reform Bloc' in particular gaining several seats from the 2005 election, and is composed of the largest Christian bloc in parliament. AMAL was the biggest loser, however along with Hizbu'llah they very nearly completely swept the underrepresented Southern & Biqaa districts. Combined, their 'Loyalty to the Resistance' bloc and Aoun's 'Change & Reform' bloc received an overwhelming (and completely useless) majority of the popular vote. Due to the interesting (archaic) and extremely complex sectarian rules that allot only certain amounts of Parliament seats in certain regions to certain religious sects, particularly favouring the Mount Lebanon & North Lebanon regions (Maronite and Sunni districts), that popular majority is virtually meaningless in context of the makeup of Parliament.

The "March 14th" main parties, Future Movement, Kataeb, Progressive Socialist, and Lebanese forces parties all individually lost seats compared to the 2005 election, some of their 'independent' allies overall made up for these losses.

The so-called 'pro-Western' alliance is made up of the following key players:

Sa'id Hariri is backed heavily by the legacy of his father's money and is heavily backed by Saudi Arabia. The movement works to promote militant Sunni fundamentalism in Lebanon; his dual appeal is primarily in maintaining the corrupt business ties his father was infamous for, and most recently at Saudi behest is stoking extreme Sunni-Shiite tensions in encourging the aforementioned Sunni fundamentalism. For example, at least one of the "Future Movement" MPs in the north (Akka) is a former(?) Zarqawi operative in Lebanon. The bloc has overall strong support of Sunnis (around 80% total), much more than the last election.

Walid Jumblatt of the "Progressive Socialist Party" is essentially a feudalist warlord, changes sides before the drop of a hat. Horribly anti-Semitic and anti-American (even as he praises Israel from Washington DC, he finds Jewish conspiracies around any corner), but occasionally pretends to be a friend of US/Israel. Governs over the Druze lands primarily through strong family ties going back decades and in close alliance with the heads of the religion, though their power is slightly on the decline as rival families are developing.

Amin Gemayyel is the scion of the Phalangist Party, and is the son of the original Middle East Nazi Pierre Gemayyel (not an exaggeration or hyperbole). A couple members of his family won seats in the election. The name "Phalange" is taken from Pierre's heroes in the fascist movements in Spain, Italy, and Germany, and he worked hard to instill these values of racist militancy into the family and the party. Primarily, their bete noirs are the Shiites and Armenians. Brother of Bashir Gemayyel--Ariel Sharon's little pet butcher.

The Lebanese Forces is headed by Samir Gaegea, virtual pioneer of the carbomb as a means of assassinating his rivals in the Christian community and other enemies from the civil war. Notoriously violent warlord, one of the last holdouts of the civil war and was held in isolation after his militia was defeated by Syrian proxies. His wikipedia page is as much fellatio as one can really receive through the web--most impressive display in that regard, really.

While well informed and well studied, I am obviously quite biased; don't take my word for it, these people are a hoot to research independently.