A new order emerges in Lebanon

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DAMASCUS - Last week, one of America's top allies in Lebanon, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, caused a row when he made remarks - off the record - criticizing his allies in the pro-Western March 14 Coalition. Among other things, Jumblatt scoffed at his patron Saad al-Hariri, the head of the largest bloc in the Lebanese parliament, for having tried - and failed - to combat Hezbollah on the streets of Beirut last May.

Then, Hariri's armed men were round up and disarmed in a matter of minutes by the well-trained Hezbollah fighters. "We have seen the Sunnis in the field, huh!" he said, adding, "They didn't last for more than 15 minutes!” Jumblatt quickly apologized - but the damage was already done.

Shortly afterwards, when landing in Beirut, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not meet the Druze warlord - who had often played host to her predecessor Condoleezza Rice, and been received previously at the Oval Office by George W Bush.

Jumblatt is a symbol of a loud anti-Syrian and anti-Hezbollah stance in Lebanon. The fact that he has lost faith in his own allies - who have bankrolled him for years - and was snubbed by Clinton, are testimony to how much things have changed in Lebanon. This is the same man after all who called for regime change in Damascus, and betted on American and Israeli forces to disarm Hezbollah in 2006.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KD29Ak02.html

Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.

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1. Hariri suspects' release may shift Lebanon balance

BEIRUT (AP) — A general freed after nearly four years in jail in connection with the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri said Thursday his release by a U.N.-backed tribunal discredited Lebanon's judiciary and could shift the country's fragile political balance.

Brig. Gen. Jamil al-Sayyed, one of the former Lebanese security officials the tribunal ordered released on Wednesday citing insufficient evidence, called for the resignation of senior Lebanese judges.

"Inevitably, there will be political consequences," al-Sayyed told The Associated Press in an interview. "It was only natural that when the tribunal took a decision that goes against the politically motivated detention, there would be an opposite political impact."

The tribunal's decision was a setback for Lebanon's pro-Western political bloc headed by Hariri's son Saad. The alliance, which holds a majority in parliament, was struggling to contain the political damage heading into crucial elections in June against a Hezbollah-led faction.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jV-djC-gnaL5WtXE9lCSl3ksaQjAD97SRNKO0

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2. Interesting

it seems that Israels 2006 Lebanon war did nothing to weaken Hezbollah and in fact did quite the opposite and now even Jumblatt is trying to course if not allegiance how this plays out could "change the game" entirely

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3. As someone who said before that goddamn war started that it was a stupid war

I feel vindicated. Ditto the Iraq war. Ditto the Gaza war. The dumbest dumb of all is not knowing when to hold your fire.

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4. for background, Jumblatt is an extremely whimsical figure, even as politicians go

At any point in time Jumblatt is actually very loudly pro-Syrian and pro-Hizbu'llah, depending on whether the US Ambassador is in the room and who is paying him at the time.. horribly anti-semetic, and a big supporter of Israel (when he's not accusing them of this or that in the occasional sensational article that he'll retract a day later). Don't think about that one for too long, it hurts to follow his stances.. Lately he has not only 'off the cuff' (testing the reactions) criticized Hariri Inc lately, but also that proto-fascist Lebanese Forces Samir Gaegae (vile scoundrel if there ever was one) for trying to screw over their Armenian allies in Beirut districts. The Armenians may be backing Aoun more, so that was a stupid move on Samir's part, but that's the price for having 3 sectarian narcissts trying to drive at the same time. Not a terribly cohesive alliance, the only thing that holds them together is American guns and Hariri money (and a general fear and hatred of Shiites). The release of the pro-Syrian Generals and the buzz its causing seems to be bonding them back together for the time being anyway. They tried to delay the release until after the elections for fear of the bad PR it would cause, but obviously that fell through.
On the other hand, Hizbu'llah, FPM, Amal, Islamic Labor, and SSNP are much more effectively managing their electoral moves.

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6. The Druze deserve a better leader.

He is an ideologue with a large, interfering ego. He is, however, and excellent indicator of which way the wind is blowing, and always has been.

The interesting question is going to be how Nasrallah handles "success". Nothing is more dangerous than "success".

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8. Yes, 'respectability' is the worst enemy of any decent underground movement

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9. how that feudalist warlord can be head of the "Progressive Socialist Party"

in the International no less is another aneurysm-in-a-box, but that's another story..... I guess there's Talal Arslan/LDP as his rival in the druze, friendly with Aoun, but his clan isn't strong enough to really supplant him. And good for that, the stage needs clowns.

More recent gems from the goose that keeps gifting:

01/05/2009 The head of the Democratic Gathering MP Walid Jumblatt continues to surprise everyone, his allies before his rivals…

In only one day, Jumblatt appeared to be close to the two main rival blocs in Lebanon. On Thursday morning, he visited his "ally," the head of the Future movement MP Saad Hariri, and delivered stringent statements against Syria. In the evening of the same day, he visited his "friend," as he likes to call him, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and sent "positive" messages of opening a "new page" with the neighbor country.

The Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader, who paid a visit to the head of the Future Movement MP Saad Hariri on Thursday morning apparently to "console" him after the court's ruling to release the four generals, said that he respects the Tribunal decision. "However, we will still accuse Syria politically," he said.

Commentators have questioned the term “political accusation” or “political condemnation” often used by Jumblatt and could not differentiate between “political accusation” and “accusation” since they both mean that Jumblatt still accuses Syria, of having a hand in Hariri’s murder.

Nevertheless, Jumblatt reappeared on television again, but this time from Speaker Berri's residence at Ain al-Tine and with a completely different rhetoric.
He recalled that he had "forgiven" Syria and remembered that Lebanon's main enemy was Israel warning against the Zionist expansions and settlements. He called to open a new page with Damascus following elections in June..

The Progressive Socialist Party leader stressed that the conflict in Lebanon was political, not sectarian.

http://www.almanar.com.lb/NewsSite/ArticlePrintPage.aspx?id=83923

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5. nice piece, thanks.. Sami's work is usually quite interesting

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7. He writes coherently, he presents a certain point of view.

Sometimes I like him and sometimes not so much. Right now I'm watching the upcoming elections and collecting tea leaves to read.

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10. A shot in the arm for Hezbollah

DAMASCUS - In a dramatic development, four generals jailed since 2005 for alleged involvement in the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister Rafik al-Hariri were on Wednesday released from the nation's Roumieh Prison.

The release has emboldened Hezbollah, which has consistently supported the generals, and perhaps angered Rafik's son Saad al-Hariri and his supporters, who lobbied strongly for the generals' arrest in 2005. The release, which comes 40 days ahead of parliamentary elections, is a strong campaign boost for Hezbollah. It has consistently claimed innocence in al-Hariri's murder, and that the officials were arrested for political reasons - their links to then-president Emille Lahhoud, Syria and Hezbollah - rather than having anything to do with the assassination plot.

Hezbollah secretary general Hasan Nasrallah has mentioned the officers in seven high-profile speeches since 2005, each time calling for their release. After the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which opened its investigation in al-Hariri's death in March, called for their immediate release and protection, Hezbollah rejoiced while members of the pro-Western March 14 Coalition sulked.

The headline on the front page of As-Saffir, a political daily newspaper close to the Hezbollah-led opposition, was "The four officers are liberated, the political scene changes." The political party Amal, from which Hezbollah was born in 1982, issued a statement saying that "justice had prevailed".

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KE02Ak03.html