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1) Which are the militarily superior countries in this matter? Israel and the US.
2) Which country has the largest ally in the region on which it can depend for support? Israel.
3) Which country has spontaneously attacked another country in defense of its interests? Israel against Iraq in 1981, for sure.
4) Which countries first began making military threats with regard to Iran's (possibly peaceful) nuclear capabilities? The US and Israel.
5) Which countries have the capability to attack from the air without violating another country's airspace? Israel and the US.
6) Which country has a formal written policy to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries at the field commander's discretion? The United States in its 2002 Nuclear Posture Review.
7) Which country has a formal written policy of regime change in Iran? The United States. The Israeli ambassador to the US concurred with this policy in April, 2003.
8) Which country has leaked to the world press, well before the election of Ahmadinejad (the source of recent comments about Israel), that it has been training to attack Iran's nuclear reactor at Bushehr? Israel. Additionally, Seymour Hersh has reported, many months ago, that the United States was doing secret surveillance inside and over Iran for the purposes of creating targeting information.
9) Which country ignored international law, lied to its public and the UN Security Council, and invaded another country for the purposes of regime change? The United States, with training and intelligence support from whom? Israel.
10) Which country has been under an arms embargo mandated and enforced by the US for the past twenty-seven years and has been generally unable to obtain spare parts for its largely US-built equipment? Iran. The last known shipment were Hawk surface-to-air missiles (1960s technology) during the Iran-Iraq war as part of the Iran-Contra scheme.
11) Which countries have large nuclear capabilities? Israel and the US. Which has none to date? Iran.
12) Which countries have significant stand-off attack capabilities? The US and Israel. Israel has a number of cruise-missile submarines, and US capability in this regard is prodigious--submarines, missile cruisers and aircraft carriers along with many aircraft capable of carrying long-range air-launched cruise missiles. Iran has virtually no navy beyond coastal patrol boats and a handful of Chinese-made fast-attack PT boats (its three destroyers are over fifty years old and are not operational, its three frigates are not functional most of the time and its four minesweepers are rarely available and have no minesweeping capability). Its intermediate-range missile program is still under development. It may have completed a 1000-km two-stage missile capable of hitting Israel, but production in any significant numbers is doubtful, because some of the parts for that missile originate from China and North Korea and are controlled by the US embargo, so shipments of parts are sporadic at best. Right now, that IRBM could carry a single 700 kg conventional warhead, less than the equivalent of one 2000 lb. bomb. Iran may have a very few medium-range cruise missiles, since about 18 Russian missiles were smuggled out of the Ukraine in 1999-2001, some going to Iran, some going to China. It's not known how many each country received.
13) Iran's current military is largely defensive in structure--a holdover characteristic from the days of the Shah and the Iran-Iraq war. It depends heavily on an air defense system designed to shoot down aircraft penetrating its own air space, and yet, it has had little luck in destroying surveillance drones used by the US recently. Since its navy is negligible, it depends upon Sunburn and Silkworm surface-to-sea missiles in coastal installations for naval defense. It has air interceptors, but those aircraft are aging, and many are not flying for lack of spare parts; moreover, Iran has virtually no air-to-air refueling capability for those aircraft. This means their range is severely limited. It has a significant depth in tanks, but those are aging, as well, and the numbers are well down from the `80s (it is now building its own tanks, but production is not high). Many tanks were lost in the Iran-Iraq war and not replaced. Iran depends very heavily on tactical, rather than strategic, weapons, such as short-range artillery rockets and Russian short-range (30-100 mile) missiles. Iran's main strength is in soldiers--nearly a million with active-duty, regular and irregular militia combined, but it has limited ability to move those troops rapidly. Its helicopter manufacturing program is still relatively recently initiated.
14) Finally, Iran has a history of harsh rhetoric against the US and Israel since 1979. Recall that the US was named "the Great Satan" and Uncle Sam frequently burned in effigy in 1979-1980 because of its embargo on Iran and the freezing of Iranian assets, not to mention that the Shah was the puppet of the US. No military action came of that, and it was clear at the time that Iran was in no position to act militarily against the US. The Islamic Revolutionary government has consistently spoken this way publicly when it has felt threatened, and the combination of Bush and Sharon has been particularly threatening over the last few years.
It's quite possible that the election of a hard-liner like Ahmadinejad was a direct result of the open threats made on Iran by the US and Israel since Bush came to office. Up to that time, the moderates in Iran were gaining ground, and there were considerable back-channel, informal communications with the Clinton administration. Bush arrives in Washington with a busload of Likudniks in tow and the next thing we know, he's using the State of the Union address to describe Iran as part of an "Axis of Evil." When a country like the US, with its unchallenged military power, starts talking like that, it's bound to make Iran defensive, and the net result may be the election of Ahmadinejad because--just like Bush and Sharon--he likes to talk tough. Also, let's keep in mind that there's a practical example of Bush's indifference to sovereignty right next door to Iran. That has to unnerve the entire population. People are much the same everywhere. Bush scared the hell out of the American public in order to get reelected. Ahmadinejad likely won because the Iranians are scared--by both the US and Israel.
That's why I think it's defensive posturing.
Cheers.
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