Iraq: Trending Toward Vietnam-Level Bloodiness

[tsipple]

I pulled out my calculator and did some simple calculations. If we assume that 20 U.S. soldiers died today in Iraq and that about 50,000 U.S. soldiers died in the Vietnam War, and if you assume that 20 fatalities per day continues (and doesn't accelerate), then U.S. fatalities would equal Vietnam fatalities in just under 7 years.

The Vietnam War was longer.

[bemildred]

1. Vietnam took quite a while to ramp up, so to speak.

What is striking here, so far, it the immediate short cut to
the bloody guerilla/civil conflict. The conventional resistance
was token. It makes sense if you think about it, why bother
with fighing a conventional war you cannot win when you can save
your assets for a guerilla/civil war where the table it tilted
more in your direction?

[tsipple]

2. Two Differences That *Might* Help

1. Vietnam was resupplied by the Chinese and Soviets. Hopefully Iraq doesn't get as much resupply. (Fingers crossed on that one.)

2. Vietnam has a much higher population.

On the other hand, I don't think U.S. public opinion would support anywhere near 50,000 U.S. war dead in Iraq. The war rationale has disappeared in Iraq quicker than it did in Vietnam.