LA Prepares For The Perfect Drought As Record Dry Spell Continues - AFP

[hatrack]

Los Angeles (eCanadanow) - Los Angeles is suffering its driest spell since record-keeping began 130 years ago, fuelling fears that global warming could cause a “perfect drought” that could dry all the far- flung water sources for a region of over 18 million people.

According to a report by the National Weather Service on Sunday, Los Angeles has received just 6.27 centimetres of rain since July 1, 2006, compared to an average of 35.4 centimetres. “The rain season is currently the driest to date in downtown Los Angeles since records began in 1877,” the weather service said in a statement. “If downtown Los Angeles receives less than 4.9 centimetres of rain from now through June 30th this will become the driest rain season ever,” it said.

Currently the driest year on record is the 2001-2002 season, which saw just 11.22 centimetres of rain.

Already the drought has catalysed a series of recent wildfires that are commonly seen only in the late fall months when the forests and brushlands are tinder-dry from months of the region’s famous sunshine. A potentially devastating confluence of weather patterns could conspire to quickly turn the region into a modern dust bowl that could lead to uncontrollable wildfires, the breakdown of the electricity grid and a disaster for agriculture, experts say.

EDIT

http://www.ecanadanow.com/weather/2007/04/02/in-record-dry-spell-la-fears-the-perfect-drought/

[SpiralHawk]

1. Gulp. Environmental Collapse on the Pacific coast?

You might want to consider posting your thread in GD, hatrack. This is stunning stuff.

I don't like the news, but I am glad you brought it to our attention. I'd rather face the facts head on, than hide my head in the sand like a republicon...


In Californa, Dead Seabirds Wash Ashore W. Nearly Empty Stomachs - 3rd Year Straight - SF Chronicle

West Coast seabirds are dying, apparently from a lack of food -- and some researchers think the phenomenon may be linked to global climate change. This is the third year that scientists have found unusually large numbers of marine birds -- mainly common murres, but also rhinoceros auklets and tufted puffins -- washed up on beaches in California, Oregon and Washington. In 2005, the first year of the phenomenon, large numbers of Cassin's auklets also died.

Hannah Nevins, the coordinator for Moss Landing Marine Laboratories beach survey program, said 253 dead murres were recovered on 11 Monterey Bay beaches during the first week of March. During the past nine years, an average of nine dead birds were collected on the same beaches during the same week, she said. About 180,000 breeding murres live along the West Coast, so it is unlikely the recent spate of deaths is enough to drastically harm the overall population. "But if this continues for multiple years, then we could have real problems," Nevins said.

Most of the casualties were young birds that had just gone through their first winter. "They were all in poor condition, and generally had empty stomachs," she said. "Either they were not finding food, or they were unable to capture the food they did find."

Bill Sydeman, the director of marine ecology at PRBO Conservation Science, a Bay Area group that specializes in avian research, said the deaths are worrisome because it now appears they are not isolated events. In the two past years, the winter deaths were followed by less successful breeding at the Farallon Islands, one of the West Coast's most productive seabird rookeries, he said. "I would not be surprised to see the same thing this year," Sydeman said. Sydeman said the trend appears to be linked to changes in the California Current -- a vast oceanic stream that delivers cold, nutrient-rich water from the Gulf of Alaska to the continental West Coast. Plankton thrives in this water, forming the basis of a food web that sustains everything from small fish to whales.

EDIT

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/0...

[Taverner]

2. This will affect NorCal as they get a good deal of their water from us

And if we have a drought, as predicted, hoo boy...

[Xithras]

3. Yes and no.

First, the article is incorrect when it claims that LA is OK because the reservoirs are full. Most of the water in the reservoirs belongs to NorCal irrigation districts, and those districts will walk through fire before giving their water away to LA. Los Angeles has a legal right to a certain percentage of the water flowing into the Delta. The irrigation districts have a legal responsibility to maintain water releases that are consistent with the natural flow of the river for that time of year. Below-normal snowpack in the Sierra's means reduced inflows to the reservoirs. Reduced reservoir inflows mean a lowered legal release requirement. Lowered releases into the Delta means both saltwater intrusion and contractual reductions in LA's water takings from that body. At a time when LA will be more dependent on the aqueduct than ever, their ability to tap it will be reduced or, at best, flat.

Northern California will see no real impact from this for at least two years, assuming the reduced snowfall persists that long. Our own water supplies are secured, and it's a given that any attempt by the state or LA to force the issue will be tied up in the courts for at least a year or two. Where I live, the dams are owned by the irrigation districts, and the irrigation district boards are populated by farmers, not politicians. Unless LA plans on paying these farmers to not farm their fields this year, they're going to have a hell of a time convincing them to increase releases.

[necso]

4. Some links:

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_west.htm

(Pretty much everywhere SoCal gets water from is in drought.)

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?CA,W

The one-year-deltas are particularly interesting. Although the drought in SoCal may be underestimated by these graphics. And I expect the tree die-off to ramp-up again this year, increasing the fire-danger.

(Oops.)