Questions about climate change...

[brokensymmetry]

First of all, I realize that one year does not a
trend make. That said, I'd like to explore some
ideas and see if I'm too far off base.

As nearly as I can tell, global warming is less about
an incremental increase in temperature than it is about
more energetic, more volatile weather. So we'll
have big destructive storms more frequently. Sometimes
that will mean flooding due to rains, or it could mean
extended periods of drought. We'll have blizzards and
ice storms in the winter, and more severe hurricanes.

Now - if that's true - what does it mean? I'd suppose
several things. Higher food prices, certainly. Higher
fuel prices (perhaps?) because of the need for heating
and air conditioning. Higher casualty insurance premiums,
when the product is even available. More destruction of
property. More deaths due to extreme weather.

Finally, due to the built in latency of the climate
systems, it's my understanding that the climate of today
was set by conditions existing in 1980 or so. Thus, no
matter what we do today, we've got a predetermined path
of consequences until about 2030. Reduction of hydrocarbon
emissions won't help much until after 2030 - assuming
such a thing happens.

So - is this basically correct? Are there points I've
missed? What of the conclusions - any points I've
messed up or missed there?

All thoughts and comments appreciated.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

1. sounds about right to me....

kicking for more comments...

[evlbstrd]

2. From what I've read and seen,

(Thanks, Energy and Environment forum!) that's where we are.
It seems like we're at a pivotal moment, and the wrong choices lead to self-extinction.

[rurallib]

3. You might want to add into the effects

coastal flooding and more desertification in some areas(eg Africa and our own midwest) while other areas drown.

[madeline_con]

4. Incremental temperature increases lead to....

more violent weather.

Colder winters in some areas. Dryer, warmer ones in others.

Also, El Nino and La Nina play a role in their cyclic affects.

It's not that it's less about temp increases, it's the effect they have on the weather.

[Dead_Parrot]

5. Another key danger is to ocean currents

The one that gets talked about is the N. Atlantic Drift arm of the Gulf Stream, which may stop heating Europe and funnel some of the heat back into the Gulf (via the Canary current and the N. Equatorial current) which would muck up all sorts of things.

And every so often, a couple of currents change anyway, which gives us the El Niño/La Niña conditions that affect the conditions from South Africa to New York.

Thing is, that's just a small subset of the currents: We've generally no idea how the W. Australian current, the Benguela current, the Kuroshio Current, or most of the several dozen other currents may change, or what the effects would be if they do.

[XemaSab]

6. Planning for agriculture will become very difficult

In California, we store our winter rainfall and use the water during the summer to water crops, It's a delicate balance, because the same dams also provide flood control. Every rainy season it's a bit of a gamble whether to let water go and increase flood protection capacity, or to hoard the water in case the next storm doesn't bring very much rain.

If you're too nervous about summer drought, you run the risk of flooding in the winter, and if you're too nervous about winter floods there may not be enough water for the farmers the next summer.

Most years the system works. We don't flood very often, and the farmers usually get enough water to grow their crops.

But if global warming changed the weather, how would the people running the dams know what to expect? What if the next storm drops ten inches of rain in two days, or what if it does nothing at all?

Back east, farmers play the same game with summer rainfall. Too much, and they get floods; too little, and the plants die. It's the same challenge with the growing season, and things like hurricanes and hailstorms. Most years things work out, but some years they don't. Global warming runs the risk of increasing the number of years of crop failure.

[phantom power]

7. There will probably be a trend toward increasing drought in areas where...

the water budget is dependent on melting snowpack/glaciers during the spring and summer. Based on my reading there are, roughly, two general scenarios. In one scenario, the current warming trend continues unabated. In that scenario, the agricultural zone ends up essentially north of 45 degrees lattitude (or south of 45S). Desert-Earth. In the second scenario, the warming trend is interrupted by a Younger-Dryas event due to ocean current collapse. I used to consider that the worst case. These days, I consider it the best case.

The general consensus is that we're all in big trouble, regardless of the details.