DOE - Energy Consumption To Rise For Decades, But Prices Will Stay Stable Or Drop

[hatrack]

:wtf:

The U.S. Department of Energy on Tuesday gave a moderate outlook for energy supply and prices, saying consumption will probably rise in the next few decades, but prices will remain stable and, in some cases, even drop.

The Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its Annual Energy Outlook that in 2030, the U.S. will still get 86 percent of its energy from fossil fuels, but the country will use a lot more renewable fuels as well and people will use energy more efficiently. Still, the U.S. will become more dependent on imported fuel, the report said.

"Energy markets are changing gradually in response to such readily observable factors as the higher energy prices ... greater influence of developing countries on worldwide energy requirements ... and changing public perceptions of issues related to the use of alternative fuels, emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases," the report said.

The outlook supports the fundamental business strategies of Texas' largest energy companies. Exxon Mobil Corp. has resisted shifting its strategy to renewable fuels, saying oil and natural gas will remain more important. Exxon will publish its own 2030 outlook next week. And TXU Corp.'s plans to build more coal- and nuclear-fired power plants fit with the government's prediction that use of those fuels will grow.

EDIT

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/industries/energy/stories/DN-energy_06bus.ART.State.Edition1.316bcf4.html

[GliderGuider]

1. Sssshhh. Everything's fine. Go back to sleep.

Whatever these guys are smoking, keep it the heck out of my pipe.

The world population is growing, along with rising global industrialization, peak oil looming, natural gas supplies in North America and Europe about to fall off a cliff, and global warming is thundering down the track towards a coal refueling station.

And they think energy prices are going to drop?????

:banghead:

[FogerRox]

2. Yeah, they are smokin some serious drugs

Unless Fusion power sweeps the planet.

[phantom power]

3. "WTF" is about right. My frontal lobes are trying to back slowly away.

[eppur_se_muova]

4. OOOOOOOh Kay. The laws of arithmetic were just in the way. nt

[NNadir]

5. When one recalls various predictions about energy 30 to 40 years out,

they are all wrong, Admiral Rickover being an exception.


Nuclear energy, for instance, as I am often reminded, is not "too cheap to meter," even though it was predicted, in 1954, that it would be. Solar power is "too cheap to meter," but only if you steal the solar panels.


Sometimes I wonder why people even bother to forecast energy. If one makes a forecast about energy the highest probability is that one will be proved to be a fool.

I have no idea where the authors of the Energy Outlook think we're going to put the carbon dioxide.

[One_Life_To_Give]

6. And Oil will peak at $40 nt

[YankeyMCC]

7. They forgot the "Not!"

At the end of the article...you know as in "A NOT joke."

[bhikkhu]

8. what is amazing is that we paid for this study

who knows how many millions for a worthless lullaby...and the current payment is likely only a minor inconvenience compared to the future damage my children will see. Words fail me...

[GOPBasher]

9. Sure, OK. I believe this. n/t

[Strelnikov_]

10. We . . Are . . Screwed

With the Department Of Energy under the control of the petro-oligarchy, there is no way the government will initiate an immediate emergency transformation away from fossil fuels, particularly petroleum and natural gas, to domestic renewable resources.

Due to the lead times, integrated systems planning, and levels of 'venture capital' required, once the 'market' signals a problem (ie:price, scarcity), it will be too late for laissez-faire energy planning to effect a transformation. The 'crises' will come harder and faster than the 'free market' can react (my leading contender now is for a regional war in the Persian Gulf knocking offline most of the energy resources virtually overnight). The government will have to step in, but by then major societal and economic distress will be occurring.

Once the economy/society is in depression, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to effect the techno-fixes so many, including myself, espouse (or, in other words, it is hard to buy semiconductors and machine parts from countries that just lost trillions when you defaulted on your foreign debt).

The only way to avoid the above is for the Government to take the lead in mandating: 1) massive energy conservation, 2) land use reform, and 3) an integrated, renewable, redundant energy infrastructure.

Since this will not happen, we are screwed.

The elected Democrats are saying some of the right things, even if their plans are timid, and their time scales are wishful thinking. Is this due to their faith in tripe like this from the Energy Department? However, the House and Senate only provide oversight of Cabinet level departments. We need a new direction at the Executive to start transformation.

[Strelnikov_]

11. To Quote Jimmy Carter . .

We are grossly wasting our energy resources … as though their supply was infinite. We must even face the prospect of changing our basic ways of living. This change will either be made on our own initiative in a planned and rational way, or forced on us with chaos and suffering by the inexorable laws of nature.

— Jimmy Carter, 1976

[Ready4Change]

12. This a memo from DOE's Dept of Wishful Thinking?

That's about the only way it makes sense. If fossil fuels weren't due to get growingingly scarcer I would go along with it, as tech and economies of scale could decrease prices.

However, as fossil fuels ARE growing ever more scarce, while at the same time demand is growing at an ever increasing pace, prices can do little BUT go up.

Renewables face the same issue, at least in the short term. Demand is going to outpace production. Eventually production will catch up. But, as long as there's easy profits to be made with fossil fuels, I don't expect miracles in renewables. Too much liquid cash is still underground at this point.