Japan's 2005 Birth Rate Hits Record Low

[jpak]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/w-asia/2006/jun/01/060105935.html

TOKYO (AP) - Japan's birth rate in 2005 dropped to a record low of 1.25 babies per woman, the Health Ministry reported Thursday, adding to concerns over the country's aging population and its economy.

Japan also reported a negative birth rate for the first time on record, with the number of deaths in 2005 exceeding births by 21,408.

The trend threatens to leave Japan with a labor shortage, erode the country's tax base and strain the pension system as fewer taxpayers support an expanding elderly population.

The country's birth rate was 1.29 in both 2003 and 2004, already the lowest figure since the government began releasing birth figures in 1947, according to the Health Ministry.

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[phantom power]

1. And yet, we're all screwed if we don't reduce earth's population.

[jpak]

2. You would think this would be a good thing

for an island nation with no oil, gas, coal or uranium - they can feed themselves (supposedly) but need fossil fuels to do that.

Voluntary NPG is a better deal than the *ahem* "alternative" route...

:)

[phantom power]

4. No doubt. But it does point out the thorny issue that...

all our economics are organized around the assumption that every generation there will be more people. It begs the question of how to create a healthy economy that isn't dependent on ever-increasing consumption by an ever-increasing number of people. And, assuming we could ever answer that question, we now have the other problem of figuring out how to transition from the system we have now to this other hypothetical growth-neutral system.

Also a classic demonstration of the fact that some situations are a lot easier to get into, than out of.
:-)

Most likely, all that speculation is irrelevant. Our economies and maybe civilizations will all crash, along with the population, when the climate catastrophes begin. The survivors, if there are any, are unlikely to learn anything from the experience.

Bah, humbug.

[depakid]

6. The cult of growth

Drives neoclassical economics- but the notion is patently absurd when viewed in the larger systems context.

Herman Daly (one of the founders of ecological economics) is probably the foremost author on the point.

One of the better works is called Beyond Growth : The Economics of Sustainable Development

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0807047090/104-8938039-7857556?v=glance&n=283155

We might also note that Jared Diamond hold Japan up as an example of a nation that dealt effectively with a natural resource crisis:

"In the 1600's, the country faced its own crisis of deforestation, paradoxically brought on by the peace and prosperity following the Tokugawa shoguns' military triumph that ended 150 years of civil war. The subsequent explosion of Japan's population and economy set off rampant logging for construction of palaces and cities, and for fuel and fertilizer.

The shoguns responded with both negative and positive measures. They reduced wood consumption by turning to light-timbered construction, to fuel-efficient stoves and heaters, and to coal as a source of energy. At the same time, they increased wood production by developing and carefully managing plantation forests. Both the shoguns and the Japanese peasants took a long-term view: the former expected to pass on their power to their children, and the latter expected to pass on their land. In addition, Japan's isolation at the time made it obvious that the country would have to depend on its own resources and couldn't meet its needs by pillaging other countries. Today, despite having the highest human population density of any large developed country, Japan is more than 70 percent forested."

So it makes sense that the Japanese are once again among the first to recognize their limits.

[dcfirefighter]

9. I maintain that this is primarily a monetary problem

in that money is created when it is lent into existence, yet the interest required to pay the loan is not. So everyone this debt gets passed around and passed around, and the only way to pay it is to loan more money into existence.

[Sequoia]

3. Better start cloning then.

[LiberalEsto]

5. Maybe they can bring in some folks from Mexico

to build up their tax base. It would help Japan, ease America's flood of immigrants, and help Mexicans find places to live and work.

[Kolesar]

10. Indians, Indonesians, ... whereever there is a high birthrate

[JohnWxy]

7. COULD we have these people talk tothe Mexicans and explain how this works?

[bemildred]

8. Why is this bad?

You cannot grow more and more people forever in the same limited space.