Germany to Boost Coal-Fired Generation - Standard Chartered Says

[FBaggins]

Germany, Europe’s biggest power user, will boost coal-fired generation in the year’s second half as it replaces electricity lost by shutting nuclear reactors, Standard Chartered Plc said.

Chancellor Angela Merkel in March ordered the halting of Germany’s seven oldest reactors following a meltdown that month at Japan’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant caused by an earthquake and tsunami. That’s out of 17 reactors that accounted for 23 percent of national power generation last year, according to the BDEW utility-industry group in Berlin.

“In the second half of 2011, it seems that an increase in coal burn will be the only choice for Germany in order to offset the loss of nuclear power,” Judy Zhu, an analyst at Standard Chartered in Shanghai, said in a report today. “It is unlikely that Germany will substantially increase power imports from its neighbors, as we understand the interconnectors are not able to handle much additional power.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-08/germany-to-boost-coal-fired-generation-standard-chartered-says.html

Consistent with -

Germany's plan to shut all its nuclear power plants by 2022 will add up to 40 million tones of carbon dioxide emissions annually as the country turns to fossil fuels, analysts said on Tuesday.

The extra emissions would increase demand for carbon permits under the European Union's trading scheme, thereby adding a little to carbon prices and pollution costs for EU industry.

"We will see a pick-up in German coal burn," said Barclays Capital analyst Amrita Sen. "Longer term, they will be using more renewables and gas but this year and next, we should see a lot of support for coal burn."

http://earthfourenergy.blogspot.com/2011/06/germany-plan-to-shut-down-its-nuclear.html

[FreakinDJ]

1. Coming from a country that manufactures photovoltaic cells

[FBaggins]

4. And installs them faster than any other nation. But that's still just a drop in the bucket.

They've been advancing solar with more energy (pun intended) that anyone else. There's no way to fault their commitment to renewables... it's just that it'll take some time. You can't flip a switch on 10GW of generation and just whip up an order for new panels to be installed in a month or two. I think that figure exceeds ALL of the solar that they've installed so far to date and they've spent the last few years pulling out every stop to expand the sector.


Also - they may not manufacture cells there in great numbers for much longer. The Chinese are close to running them out of business. I hadn't considered it before, but this may explain their FIT changes. It's one thing to incent solar power if your industry is both installing and producing them. It's something else to pay out taxpayer funds to encourage Chinese imports.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

5. If the increase is temporary, it is understandable

If building new fossil fueled plants is part of the long term plan, that is another matter

[wtmusic]

6. How can building a coal plant be considered temporary?

By the time these things are retired it will be too late.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

24. Depending on the source, there seems to be some fuzz on the "temporary" part

At least one poster here is shouting it is all 100% renewable, but his accuracy record is dismal. Media is mixed on upgrades/extensions/new situation.

The interesting thing is how this transition is going to be managed and how effective it will be. Germany has a number of competing priorities and balancing between all of them and keeping the lights on will be a real challenge and fascinating to observe.

[kristopher]

25. No one said this was going to be 100% renewables.

They have explicitly stated that burning more natural gas will be part of the effort. The nuclear loving rightwing Merkel government and the nuclear loving utilities are pushing for coal though and have been since before they tried to extend the shut down dates for nuclear. But they aren't having any luck in either realm because the public is insisting the policy be based on a rapid expansion of renewables and upgrading the grid. They do accept natural gas as a transition technology because it is dispatchable and rapid on/off.

If you have the facts on your side, why do you need to fabricate false positions for those you disagree with?

[ProgressiveProfessor]

29. You are the expert in fabrication, fantasy, false claims etc

As I have repeatedly said, Germany is going to be the bell weather for the rest of us on this,

[NickB79]

7. How much does a new coal-fired plant cost to build?

If they're actually building new plants, rather than restarting shuttered ones, I can't see them turning around and closing them down in a few years time and taking a major bath on the investment.

On the other hand, they might build new, more efficient coal-fired plants and close older, less efficient ones and come out with a wash or even slight CO2 reduction despite building new plants. Not anywhere near as fast as we need to reduce CO2, though, to avoid catastrophic climate change.

[FreakinDJ]

28. $1 - 1.5 Million per Mwatt - USA cost

as for ROI I'm not sure

[AtheistCrusader]

2. Hmm. The headline sounds like a policy statement.

It's really an analyst prediction.

I agree with the prediction, but the tone might confuse.

[FBaggins]

3. I agree.

But it was the title. I've updated it with the rest of the title that adds one confusion... but removes this one.

[wtmusic]

8. There are 17 plants slated for construction.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/10/germany-coalplants-idUSLDE7290OR20110310

[AtheistCrusader]

9. Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit

One step forward, 20 steps back.

[FBaggins]

10. That's actually pre-Fukushima IIRC.

It will be interesting to see how the list changes over the next couple years.

There's a good chance that a big portion of the extra coal that they'll use over the next 2-3 years will be burned at existing plants.

[wtmusic]

13. Yep, looks like the article was posted the day before.

Almost doesn't matter where it's burned, they'll have to come up with 20GW extra and it won't be clean.

[kristopher]

11. Except those all look like they ARE NOT being built.

Nuclear proponents have no capacity for shame.

[kristopher]

12. German Nuclear Exit to Boost Renewables, Energy Grid Investments

German Nuclear Exit to Boost Renewables, Energy Grid Investments

BERLIN and SEATTLE, June 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Germany's government last week confirmed a complete nuclear phase-out by 2022, paving the way for an accelerated shift to renewable energy. This will require major investments in the electricity grid and energy storage technologies. Germany is already pursuing solutions, with several model regions developing new industry standards. These activities create excellent business opportunities in the German market. Germany Trade & Invest is hosting an event on June 8 in Seattle to share the latest developments and investment opportunities in Germany, especially in the growing eastern regions.

"Smart energy management is a key component of our future energy supply. With one of the world's leading renewable energy industries and a highly innovative IT sector, Germany is in an outstanding position to take the lead globally. Investors benefit from excellent conditions here," said Dr. Juergen Friedrich, Chief Executive of Germany Trade & Invest in Berlin.

Germany already boasts 17 percent renewable electricity from sources like wind and solar power, which do not have a base load. A large fluctuating energy supply requires smart grids and energy storage to balance supply and demand, which can be achieved by shifting consumption or storing energy for later use. Software and IT solutions are a key component for the advancement of smart energy management.

A first-rate telecommunications and electricity grid is a prerequisite for the expansion of smart metering and grid technologies. Germany receives excellent marks in this area. In its 2010 Global Performance Index, the World Economic Forum ranked Germany's telecommunications and transportation infrastructure first worldwide. Partial credit goes to massive infrastructure investments in eastern Germany since reunification in 1990.

Germany has six model regions...

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/german-nuclear-exit-to-boost-renewables-energy-grid-investments-123344808.html

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[kristopher]

15. Where have you seen any government data about coal?

All I've seen are presumptions that I take as being motivated by nuclear angst.

[FBaggins]

16. Asked and answered.

As I said that time... all I've seen is reporting about the plan.

You may "take" is as being an assumption, but that's your own assumption (just like the error you made when you couldn't believe that Kan was actually going to say that they were sticking with nuclear power). What you want to be the case doesn't really impact reality.

If you've seen a translation of the actual legislation and can dispute the reporting... I "take" it that you will. :)

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[FBaggins]

23. I didn't post #8

Neither did the AP (that wrote the article you want to dismiss).

[XemaSab]

22. This isn't a news article

It's a piece designed to attract investment capital.

Have a different, reliable source for this?

[ProgressiveProfessor]

31. More press releases as sources

[FBaggins]

32. Incomplete post

You left off "while giving actual news accounts short shrift because you don't like what they say"

Don't let it happen again. :)

[CJvR]

17. As predicted.

Hardly anyone could be surprised by that outcome.
Horrible goverment decission taken for political gains, same as when Sweden closed two reactors.
The voters might reward them in the next election, the voters children might be less kind if the more pessimistic greenhouse predictions come through.

[FBaggins]

18. True... but the voters' children won't vote for them

because they'll be retired.

[kristopher]

20. How have you managed to transformed the predictions in the OP into proof?

[FBaggins]

21. You're kidding, right?

Even you can't stretch the double standard THAT far, can you?

Tell us again how it's been proven that we could switch to 100% renewables in 20 years.

[SpoonFed]

27. Nice attempt at a little logical gymnastics...

Where does it say that the validity of your cherry-picked analyst's prediction is mutually inclusive of all other energy-related predictions and therefore if it is false, all others are false? No where, you're blustering.

Furthermore, you attempt to lay an insult on top of your illogic and level the accusation of double standard. Not sure if anyone would agree that you are in a position worthy of laying down such a verdict.

[SpoonFed]

26. I don't understand why you bother on this one...

This is their straw man argument that the death of nukers equals doom and gloom. The fact that they go to lengths to misrepresent (#8) and jump from prediction to fact is of no surprise to me. I'm rather bored of their tired false argument that no to nukes means earth hating coal lovers.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

30. This is not going to be an easy transition

Modern nations require power...a lot of it. Germany is determined to rid itself of nuclear power plants, a laudable goal. Getting there will not be easy. They also have a fairly strong green movement. There are a lot of interests to be balanced. Weather will also play a significant role in this. How they make the transition will be instructive to all of us and the lessons learned can be used elsewhere, including here.