PSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast: 16 named storms

[phantom power]

Expect a busy Atlantic hurricane season this year, with sixteen named storms, say Pennsylvania State University (PSU) hurricane scientists Michael Mann and Michael Kozar. Their annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast issued on May 16 calls for 12 - 20 named storms this season, which starts June 1 and runs until November 30. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms. Their prediction was made using statistics of how past hurricane seasons have behaved in response to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), the El Niño/La Niña oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and other factors. This year's forecast is primarily based on three factors:

1) The current above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from Central America to the coast of Africa between 10°C and 20°C North latitude, will continue into the main part of hurricane season;
2) The fading La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific Ocean will be replaced by neutral El Niño/La Niña conditions;
3) The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) will be near average during hurricane season.

The PSU team will also be making a new experimental forecast based not on the absolute MDR sea surface temperatures, but on difference between the MDR SST and ocean temperatures over the rest of the globe's tropical oceans. Some research has suggested that Atlantic hurricane activity is greater when this relative difference in SSTs is high, not necessarily when the absolute MDR SST is high (in other words, if all the world's tropical oceans have record high SSTs, we wouldn't get an unusually active Atlantic hurricane season, even with record warm SSTs in the Atlantic.) This new experimental forecast is predicting higher activity: 19 named storms in the Atlantic this year.

The PSU team has been making Atlantic hurricane season forecasts since 2007, and these predictions have done pretty well:

2007 prediction: 15 Actual: 15
2009 prediction: 12.5 Actual: 9
2010 prediction: 23 Actual: 19

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1804

[lector]

1. Florida survival kit

Generator with 4 extension cords. check
40 gallons of gas in cars. check
Emergency crank operated radio and flash lights. check
coal oil lamps with fuel. check
2,000 gal of water for flushing in the spa. check
200 gallons of drinking water. check
full pantry of can goods with lots of coffee.& 3 cases of MRE's. check
Gas grill with 3 gas canisters. check
5000btu window air unit for the bedroom. check
Medical safety kit. check
Axe in the attic. check
Shot Gun with 2 boxes of # 6 copper shot & 1 box of 00 buck shot. check
9mm with 200 rounds of ammo. check
Boat ready. check


Well I'm ready how about you ?