Rising alarm over global scarcities

[GliderGuider]

Rising alarm over global scarcities

As the world's population expands, competition for food, water and energy will intensify, sending up prices for basic commodities. Hunger will increase, and waves of migrants will flee the worst-affected areas. That was the warning Sir John Beddington issued in 2009 when he was chief scientific adviser to the UK government. He predicted a "perfect storm" of food, water and energy shortages breaking in about 2030.

The trouble is, the global tempest is brewing years ahead of forecast and is even now unleashing a foretaste of its fury on the Middle East. While the unrest spreading through the region has developed from unique combinations of political, economic and social factors in each affected country, anger over rising food costs is a unifying force. Rising domestic energy prices caused by shrinking state subsidies have also stoked popular dissatisfaction, while regional water shortages loom as never before.

"The urgent measures taken by these Arab governments are necessary. But they remain short-term, while the problem is structural and will only get worse," Vicken Cheterian, a political analyst at Cimera, the Swiss international relations foundation, wrote last month. "The dilemma of Arab economies is that they depend on oil prices, whether as oil producers or as countries dependent on petrodollar investments, while increased energy prices make their food more expensive."

Climate change collides with energy and water shortages, leading to food shortages and rising prices. It's time to listen to Cassandra, folks.