Hybrid-, Electric-Vehicle Demand May Be 'Overhyped' -JD Power

[NickB79]

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20101027-712175.html

" Future worldwide demand for hybrid-electric and battery-electric vehicles "may be overhyped," as consumers may not be as interested in them as is thought because of high cost and other concerns, said J.D. Power and Associates.

The researcher expects combined global sales of the vehicles to total 5.2 million units in 2020, or about 7.3% of the passenger-vehicle market for that year. That compares with projections of 954,500 vehicles, or 2.2% of the market, this year.

"Based on our research of consumer attitudes toward these technologies--and barring significant changes to public policy, including tax incentives and higher fuel-economy standards--we don't anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade," said John Humphrey, J.D.'s senior vice president of automotive operations."


This is disappointing in so many ways. For one, it destroys the idea of using V2G (vehicle-to-grid) as a massive "battery" to balance and store renewable energy anytime soon.

[kristopher]

1. Maybe, maybe not.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x263514

And V2G starts paying off at very low penetrations since it is used for ancillary services.

The value of a single vehicle for ancillary services would be around $2500-300/year to the owner. I think you are going to see a lot of corporate purchases.

[Kennah]

2. A few thoughts

I don't consider the WSJ to be unbiased on this issue.

Ford Fusion Hybrid is perhaps the most impressive American hybrid on the market today.

The Hybrid yields 41 MPG city, 36 MPG highway, 39 MPG combined.

The ICE yields 23 MPG city, 33 MPG highway, 26 MPG combined.

This is pretty amazing stuff, but I think the American people are looking for something awesome.

With gas prices still hovering below $3 a gallon, compared to the $4 and $5 a gallon from 2008, people aren't quite as urgently motivated.

As the various plugin hybrids hit the market--like the Chevy Volt, Prius PHEV, and Ford Escape PHEV--and the reality of 100+ MPG vehicles sets in, then I think one can expect to start seeing hybrids of all kinds embraced on a grander scale. Some don't want to be an early adopter, so when plugin hybrids hit I expect more people to view "conventional" hybrids as normalcy.

[Confusious]

7. Could be the $30k pricetag

with rebates.

Even when I was working, I didn't have any spare change lying around to buy a new car, even though I wanted to. I was making, at the time, $40k a year and just trying to keep my head above water.

[madokie]

3. More like J.D. Power is overrated

[Dead_Parrot]

4. Shit, I agree with you.

Must be the End Times or something...

;)

[madokie]

5. Shhhh don't make a big thing about it and maybe no one will notice

:evilgrin:

[Dead_Parrot]

6. Let's hope

:toast: