Extreme Hurricane Season Feared

[Elmore Furth]

This has been has been a lousy decade for storms of the century.

By REUTERS
Published: April 7, 2010
Filed at 1:30 p.m. ET

MIAMI (Reuters) - The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will produce an above-average eight hurricanes, four of them major, posing a heightened threat to the U.S. coastline, the Colorado State University hurricane forecasting team predicted on Wednesday.

In its second forecast in four months for the 2010 season, the leading storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 15 named tropical storms.

The team forecast a 69 percent chance of at least one major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2010, compared with a long-term average probability of 52 percent.

'EXTREME' SEASON FEARED

The earlier forecast in December by Gray's team had already predicted an "above-average" season producing 11 to 16 tropical storms, including six to eight hurricanes. It had said three to five of next year's storms would become "major" hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale.

Another forecaster, AccuWeather.com, last month also forecast a potentially "extreme" hurricane season this year, with "above-normal threats" to the U.S. coastline.


U.S. Forecaster Sees Increased 2010 Hurricane Threat

[joshcryer]

1. Going to be quite a warm summer.

And the winds this year have been incredible.

[brendan120678]

2. And didn't they say almost the same thing last year...?

I seem to recall last year was supposed to be one of the worse hurricane seasons ever...and it turned out pretty mild.

[MiniMe]

3. That was my impression too, and it was a "dud" for hurricanes

Not that being a "dud" season is bad, it is just bad for the forcasters.

[spin]

5. And the year before and the year before that ...

all the way back to 2005 which WAS the worst hurricane season.

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active Atlantic hurricane season in recorded history, repeatedly shattering numerous records. The impact of the season was widespread and ruinous with an estimated 3,865 deaths and record damages of about $130 billion (2005 USD). Of the storms that made landfall, five of the season's seven major hurricanes—Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma—were responsible for most of the destruction.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season


2006

PREDICTION

Information obtained through March 2006 continues to indicate that the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2006 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 17 named storms (average is 9.6), 85 named storm days (average is 49.1), 45 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 13 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 55 percent above the long-period average
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2006/april2006/

YEAR END REPORT

The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season officially ran from June 1 to November 30, 2006. It was significantly less active than the previous season, was the first since 2001 in which no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, and was the first since 1994 that no tropical cyclones formed during October.<1>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season




2007


PREDICTION

The Atlantic basin will likely see a very active hurricane season this year, though not as active as in 2004 and 2005, according to a well-known Colorado State University forecasting team.

***snip***

The latest forecast upgrades the team’s earlier predictions for the 2007 hurricane season. The team now expects 17 named storms to form in the Atlantic, with nine of those storms becoming hurricanes. Five of the hurricanes are expected to develop into major storms (Categories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) with wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070403_hurricane_forecast.html


YEAR END REPORT
The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season was an active Atlantic hurricane season that produced 17 tropical cyclones, 15 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season




2008


PREDICTION

Hurricane Season Predictions
15 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes Due to Hit Atlantic Basin in 2008

Hurricane Season Predictions: 15 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes Due to Hit Atlantic Basin in 2008 http://meteorologyclimatology.suite101.com/article.cfm/hurricane_season_predictions#ixzz0kRwg1yLO

YEAR END REPORT

The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active hurricane season with sixteen named storms formed, including eight that became hurricanes and five that became major hurricanes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season




2009


Forecasters: 2009 to bring 'above average' hurricane season.

PREDICTION

Next year is predicted to bring 14 named storms to the Atlantic Ocean, with seven of them becoming hurricanes, according to a university report that forecasts an "above average" 2009 hurricane season.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/weather/12/10/hurricane.season.2009/index.html


YEAR END REPORT

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a below-average year in which nine tropical storms formed, the fewest since the 1997 season.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Atlantic_hurricane_season



Basically, sometimes they get it right, sometimes they don't.

You would consider it a terrible hurricane season if there was only one hurricane but it was a force five and you witnessed the center of the eye as it passed over.

[DCKit]

6. Yes they did.

Then they announced that fast, high-level winds knocked the tops off and destroyed the storms before they were fully developed.

I can't imagine it'll be much different this year - lots of localized, severe storms and few hurricanes. Or not. It's the weather, and it does what it wants.

[joshcryer]

7. The wind is blowing itself out, I think that won't happen this time.

This is the windiest season I've ever experienced. 40 mph sustained for hours, hasn't dropped below 20 mph in days (except late at night).

[fl_dem]

4. I sure hope they are wrong

as I live on the Gulf Coast. 20 years here and only evacuated once and that was for Ivan, should have evacuated for Opal, but we rode it out..that won't happen again, cat 3 and up, I am outta here...