Statement from the UK science community

[tabatha]

10 December 2009

We, members of the UK science community, have the utmost confidence in the observational evidence for global warming and the scientific basis for concluding that it is due primarily to human activities. The evidence and the science are deep and extensive. They come from decades of painstaking and meticulous research, by many thousands of scientists across the world who adhere to the highest levels of professional integrity. That research has been subject to peer review and publication, providing traceability of the evidence and support for the scientific method.

The science of climate change draws on fundamental research from an increasing number of disciplines, many of which are represented here. As professional scientists, from students to senior professors, we uphold the findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, which concludes that ‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal’ and that ‘Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations’.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/news/latest/uk-science-statement.html

[rve300]

1. To paraphrase

We stand behind the the fact that we have used the words "very likely" to cover our ass no mater how this all works out.

[tabatha]

2. I guess that's why global warming is happening faster than predicted.

[rve300]

3. Then why use "very likely" ? Why not just delete those 2 words?

[tabatha]

4. Because they cannot know for sure.

There are so many variables, it is impossible to predict with 100% accuracy.
The only thing they can do, is demonstrate trends shown by studies of data.

The biggest uncertainty is in feedback loops - whether they are going to make it faster than simple CO2 and temperature correlations.

I have always considered life a matter of statistics - probabilities and frequency curves.

Eg, a person with certain health issues is more likely to develop certain disease, but one cannot say with 100% certainty. And once a person develops a disease, doctors can only predict how much longer they will live, but cannot say definitely.

[Nihil]

5. Or, to put it another way, because they are scientists ...

... rather than religious knobs and so they recognise the limitations
of their knowledge rather than claiming to have received divine guidance
from their Gawd ...

I wish there was some way to harvest trolls and reclaim the wasted
time & energy that has been spent trying to politely educate them ...
:shrug:

[eppur_se_muova]

7. Because it is not religious dogma. nt

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. Scientific reticence

There’s also the matter of getting the statement through political filters. When you consider that the IPCC documents are all approved by politicians, a statement like that should ring alarm bells quite loudly.

http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/1748-9326/2/2/024002/erl7_2_024002.html