Peak oil is a done deal
by Dave Cohen
It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings — anonymous
The fat lady is warming up — anonymous
I now believe that the hypothesis of a near or medium-term peak in the world's oil supply is confirmed beyond any reasonable doubt. A shift in emphasis that speaks to reducing our demand for oil and examining alternatives to oil is now required. I will be taking that road in the future, leaving specific concerns about the oil supply behind.
Today's story briefly summarizes why I believe "peak oil" is a done deal. The forecast1 below reflects my own view. This analysis does not necessarily reflect the view of ASPO-USA.
Global oil (crude + condensate) production will peak at 76.5 ± 0.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2011, ± 1 year, with a probability of 80%. There is a 20% likelihood that output will peak at another level—not 76-77 million b/d—between 2009 and 2013.This estimate intentionally says nothing about the shape of the production curve after the peak. I stand by this forecast and will not be revising it in the future. A "peak oil" forecast examines the supply-side of the oil market, but reality dictates that high prices will affect demand. My estimate can thus be viewed as a "low price" or "reference" case that ignores the effects of rising prices. See the Summary for a brief discussion.
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http://www.energybulletin.net/node/45940