Scientists Stunned By Results Of 20-Year Arctic Experiment On Warming Soil

[hatrack]

OTTAWA—"Dramatic results made public today from a unique 20-year American experiment are raising the spectre of runaway warming above the Arctic tundra that would accelerate global climate change. The findings, if confirmed with additional studies, could also doom Canada's Kyoto plan targets for reducing emissions of carbon dioxide, the leading greenhouse gas.

This double whammy arises because U.S. researchers discovered climate warming might trigger conditions where tundra decomposition will dump carbon dioxide into the atmosphere faster than it's soaked up by accelerated plant growth.

EDIT

"This study raises some big questions," said Grogan, holder of a Canada Research Chair who co-authored a commentary about the findings in Nature. Grogan and the study's lead author, Michelle Mack, both emphasized that the experiments carried out at a long-term ecological research site in Alaska looked at just one key aspect — the impact of more nutrients in the soil — in the complex cycling of carbon between the atmosphere and the earth. The findings might not hold true in different northern regions, like the immense boreal bogs or the so-called polar desert.

EDIT

Mack found that the artificially fertilized tundra plots near Toolik Lake in Alaska suffered a net loss of two kilograms of carbon per square metre in the 20 years between 2000 and 1981, when the experiment began. Most of the loss took place in layers deeper than five centimetres, and had been missed previously because measurements went no deeper than the root level. "This was probably the most surprising thing that I and my colleagues had seen for a long time," Mack recalled. The addition of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer mimicked nutrient conditions expected under the pronounced warming projected in the Arctic by climate-change models. Microbes become more active as soil warms and digest organic matter, transforming carbon to carbon dioxide and freeing up nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorous that spur plant growth. The U.S. experiments found that plant growth doubled atop the tundra, with a knee-high species of woody shrub replacing low sedges. But the extra carbon locked up in this new vegetation was outweighed by carbon released through accelerated decomposition and leaching in the tundra."

EDIT

[Gman]

1. So we've triggered a vicious, unstoppable chain reaction

of events that will increase CO2 at an accelerated rate.

[phantom power]

2. sure, it sounds bad when you put it *that* way....

[tigereye]

3. there was a fascinating piece on PBS

about this a few months ago. It was pretty disturbing. It is odd how this information seems to have so little impact on policy makers.

[phantom power]

4. the early effects are far removed from most people

The most easily-perceived effects have been in the arctic. Most of us still get up in the morning, and things look and act pretty much like we're used to.

I think the first widely-noticeable effect of global warming will be this extended loss of snowpack in the southwest, and the resulting water shortages. When these things start adding up to crop shortages, people may notice.

But I'm still fully expecting that many, many people will remain in denial. They'll blame it all on "acts of god". I guarantee you that Republican campaigns will find a way to blame it on Environmentalists, and/or Democrats, and if our news industry is still in the same state it is today, people will believe them.

[hatrack]

5. What makes you think they would even report it?

After all, who cares about water supplies and albedo effects? Bo-ring!

Besides, "American Steel-cage Deathmatch III" starts in just five minutes! Let's all swallow our federally provided Paxil, enjoy the refreshing crisp, clean taste of Coors Lite and watch some more teevee!!

[phantom power]

6. people will notice, once it hits the lower 48.

They'll have to lie about it, instead of just ignore it.

Call me an optimist.

[tigereye]

7. there was another PBS/ Geographic story

might have been the same piece about the researcher who studies an arctic bird that was now returning to it's nest sites much earlier than previously ( i think that this has been seen in a number of species), and the resultant risks of that to many aspects of the food chain. Everything is interconnected, people forget that.

[hatrack]

8. Are you thinking of the NYT piece? Maybe a year ago or so . . .

It was the ornithologist who spends each summer on the same island in the Barents Sea for something like 20 years or more. Let me do some digging and see if I can find it.

[tigereye]

9. yes there was a PBS piece as well

[Boomer]

13. And a few more hurricanes

>> I think the first widely-noticeable effect of global warming will be this extended loss of snowpack in the southwest, and the resulting water shortages. <<

The parade of hurricanes, including Ivan Who Would Not Die, are pretty noticeable too. Northern Virginia just suffered over 50 tornado touchdowns as the remnants of Ivan swept through our area. That certainly got MY attention.

[CHIMO]

10. Rare sighting of wasp north of Arctic Circle puzzles residents

IQALUIT - Southern Canadians wouldn't take a second look at a yellowjacket wasp circling around their picnic, but the discovery of the insect far north of the Arctic Circle has entomologists, well, buzzing.

Noire Ikalukjuaq, the mayor of Arctic Bay, found a specimen of Vespula intermedia, or yellowjacket wasp, outside the community recently. Arctic Bay is on the northern tip of Baffin Island, at more than 73 degrees latitude.

"I didn't know what that was at the time I saw it," recalled Ikalukjuaq, who managed to take a picture of the insect. "It didn't look scary to me, but I'll know better next time I see one."

Ikalukjuaq said he had no word for it in Inuktitut.

http://www.cbc.ca/story/science/national/2004/09/09/wasp040909.html

One can bet that the bean counters will say that science and the scientists let us down. Sounds familiar.

WARNING DARK AGE AHEAD

Legendary writer Jane Jacobs — 88 this year! — describes how Dark Ages (cultures’ dead ends) happen as knowledge is lost and ideas vanish. Jacobs warns that five social pillars are crumbling: family and community, higher education, science, representative government, and professional self-regulation. With analysis by Robert Lucas (economics), Alan Jacobs (city planning), Henry Mintzberg (management), and others.

http://www.cbc.ca/ideas/

[Dogmudgeon]

14. I started a thread on this

... before I saw your post.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x14617

--bkl

[NNadir]

11. After Macbeth, "if it were done, 'twere better done quickly."

This is a very cold remark, but a major collapse of the Ross ice shelf, owing to the swamping of Disneyworld, might get some attention. If it happens before November, it might create a government here that might initiate the action we need.

We must act, and act soon. Why do we need tragedy to act?

[david_vincent]

12. An intensified water shortage in the southwest

won't be noticed until they stop planning to divert water from British Columbian rivers to send it to California and Nevada. One Canadian was reported to have said that they don't mind sending their water to the U.S., but first, they want to see a LOT of empty swimming pools.
It seems that the politicians have made up their minds to be followers, not leaders, on environmental issues. That is, until Bechtel can figure out how to make a billion dollars out of it.