Rising Railroad Shipments Show U.S. Expansion Gaining Momentum

[Purveyor]

By Anna-Louise Jackson and Anthony Feld

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Growth in railroad-shipping volume shows the U.S. economic expansion is gaining momentum, even with rising energy prices in the first quarter.

Total rail volumes excluding grain and coal shipments rose 7.9 percent to 4.6 million carloads in the quarter ended March 31, according to data compiled by the Association of American Railroads in Washington. It was the second-highest increase in a first quarter, following last year’s 9.3 percent rise.

“This is almost double the first-quarter growth rates of the last economic recession, during the 2003-2006 recovery period,” said John Mims, a transportation analyst in Richmond, Virginia, at BB&T Corp. Rail volumes were on the “high end” of his expectations for the first quarter, and his projections for the second quarter assume the pace of volume recovery will continue.

Rail-car shipments that exclude coal and grain, such as chemicals and metals, represent the bulk of materials that go into industrial production, so an increase in volumes bodes well for the broader economy, Mims said.

MORE...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=alaUH9p.h7hY&pos=10

[midnight]

1. As rail shipments gets going again will it become more

transparent that this recovery will have very little to do with job recovery?

[Hawkowl]

2. Shipping the factories out of the country

Exporting jobs requires exporting the machinery and entire factories. USA! USA!

[bemildred]

3. Is this some sort of joke?

"Rising Railroad Shipments"

"Total rail volumes excluding grain and coal shipments"

“This is almost double the first-quarter growth rates of the last economic recession, during the 2003-2006 recovery period,”

Is there some guy in a cube somewhere searching desperately for these straws we can all cling to?

Are we up to twice a decade "recovery periods"?

[A HERETIC I AM]

4. No good news goes over well, eh?

The fact is, the railroad activity is a leading indicator and has been for decades. I travel every day and speak to lots of people in the transportation industry, including railroad workers. Virtually ALL of the laid off workers from the big three railroads (Union Pacific, BNSF & Norfolk Southern) have been recalled and all of those as well as most others are hiring new workers. The number of railcars parked on sidings has decreased, as more idle cars are called back into service.

The same goes for the trucking industry. Shipping volumes are up across the board and transport firms are hiring again at a good clip. If you have a CDL, you can get a decent paying job tomorrow.

You can decide that this is "Straws we can all cling to" if you want, but the increase of railroad shipments is a GOOD sign for the economy.

Is everything rosy again? No. Of course not. But this is bona fide good news whether you choose to believe it or not.

[bemildred]

6. Yep, everything is peachy, you should invest now. nt

[A HERETIC I AM]

7. Beautiful non-answer.

"you should invest now."

No, the time to invest was back in March of 2009 when everyone thought the end of the world was imminent and the DOW was under 7000.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled hand wringing and nay saying.

[bemildred]

8. A non-answer to a non-question.

It does seem to me that if you really do believe that happy times are here again, then this IS the time to get in. "Buy low, sell high".

[A HERETIC I AM]

11. For fucks sake, PLEASE tell me where I indicated "Happy times are here again"?

Where in this thread did I say that? Where in ANY thread on this forum or any other have I ever said or insinuated such a thing?

Because it is obvious your reading comprehension skills are sorely lacking or your short term memory suffers, here is what I said in post #4 above;

Is everything rosy again? No. Of course not. But this is bona fide good news whether you choose to believe it or not.

Is it that you just wont be happy until the day that 40,000 guys walk through the gates of the Gary Works at 7:30 again? Or 20,000 show up for the morning shift at the locomotive shops in Altoona? Forget it. It isn't going to happen. This country needs another world war for us to become the industrial powerhouse we were from the 50's through the 80's.

As far as your outstanding investment advice and its impeccable timing, when folks like you start to feel comfortable again, that's when it is time to sell. The time to "buy low" was, as I mentioned above, 2 years ago. You have missed the nearly 100% gains since then.

[bemildred]

13. OK, rail volume is off its lows, and that is better than rail volume continuing to decline.

You continue to assert that two years ago was the low, and things are now going to go up, yes? Or are you saying we are at a peak now? Or what?

[orangeapple]

9. graphs of the last 5 years for comparison from CR

[westerebus]

10. Thanks for the charts orangeapple.

Welcome to DU.

[golfguru]

5. I see railroad cars loaded going west but empty coming back

Lots of coal, grains and building materials being shipped to China.
China is using more concrete than rest of the world combined.

[A HERETIC I AM]

12. The vast majority of rail cars are loaded only one way.

This is has been the case since the beginning of railroading.

[westerebus]

14. Sell in May and go away....

Or something like that. Good to see you. How's the new normal working out for you? Rather well I would think.

Getting ready for the post new normal? Is it true Bill Gross has been following you around train spotting? LOL.

[golfguru]

16. lol I am getting ready to dump all my stocks

before May 1st. I think it is gonna be a long hot summer!

[westerebus]

19. You are not alone.

The question becomes if you missed the exit how far till the next one?

And I hear Rod Sterling in the back ground: Next exit, the twilight zone.

[orangeapple]

18. port traffic

courtesy of calculatedriskblog.com

[CatholicEdHead]

22. Baltic Dry Index is still way down below 2007 levels

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

There is not much moving across the oceans.

[jschurchin]

15. As a railroader, I can personally tell you

our business is steady. It's not booming, but it is steady. The one thing I see that tells me things are getting better is full auto-racks and more importantly farm and heavy equipment.
For quite a while I saw very few Tractors and Earth movers, now I see them almost everyday. This tells me Case, Deere, Cat, etc. are filling orders at a steady clip.

The one thing that does bother me though is that, the employment picture hasn't kept up with the increase in freight. Although we are hiring, it is just enough to keep up with the men and women who are retiring. The increase in freight does equate to greater income for the railroads however it doesn't mean more good job's, which when you get right down to it, is what we need.

How is 10 people doing the work of 12 retired ones good for the nation?

[orangeapple]

17. productivity

"How is 10 people doing the work of 12 retired ones good for the nation?"

Frees up labor for other purposes.

In 1900 41% of the American labor force was working in agriculture. Productivity enhancing capital investment is what made it possible for that fraction to shrink to 2% 100 years later. Can you imagine how many fewer services and goods would be available if nearly half our population was still tilling the soil? In 1900 no one could tell you what goods and services would be made available (can you imagine trying to explain 'web programmer' or 'database design' to Teddy Roosevelt?) by freeing up labor from the farm.

[westerebus]

20. Now, now.

You will never get your "Ned Lud was right" tee shirt with that attitude.

The percentage of the population engaged in hostilities on a global scale, as a form of productivity, comes to mind.

Seems to be a recurring theme.

[bemildred]

21. Cargo traffic slows at L.A., Long Beach ports

The strains of Japan's disasters are showing up at the local ports, with cargo traffic slowing through the Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors.

The number of cargo containers moving through the nation's two largest ports in March dipped by an almost imperceptible amount — 217 containers — compared with February. The ports registered an improvement of about 4% from March 2010, moving 1.01 million containers compared with 973,024.

"The earthquake and tsunami in Japan have started to affect the flow of goods," said Paul Bingham, economics practice leader with Wilbur Smith Associates. "That probably reduced overall trade at the Southern California ports by at least a couple of percentage points."

Imports through Los Angeles rose 10.2% in March to 297,023 containers, compared with 269,634 a year earlier; exports climbed 19.2% to 192,849 boxes. But the number of empty containers being shipped overseas, where factories refill them for return to the U.S., fell 6.6% to 110,924. Overall traffic for March rose 9.2% to 600,796 containers.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ports-20110415,0,2446476.story