The 5 Stages of collapse

[dixiegrrrrl]

from Dmitry Orlov's blog

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2008/02/five-stages-of-collapse.html

Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in "business as usual" is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that "the government will take care of you" is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that "your people will take care of you" is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural collapse. Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for "kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity" (Turnbull, The Mountain People). Families disband and compete as individuals for scarce resources. The new motto becomes "May you die today so that I die tomorrow" (Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago). There may even be some cannibalism.


More follows, is extraordinarily interesting. I highly recommend reading this.

[BelgianMadCow]

1. very interesting

one of the comments expands on collapse, it can be a positive thing
http://www.whatawaytogomovie.com/2008/02/29/orlov-and-the-wonderful-terrible-radical-simplification/

[Warpy]

2. I thought the first comment had the true five stages listed.

However, I do know what he's saying. During the Depression the country went through the first four stages and was heading into the fifth when FDR stopped trying to support prices and started trying to support jobs and wages. Had he not done that, there would have been no Big Men left to plot to overturn the New Deal 30 years later. Likely we'd have lost a significant portion of our population to starvation, also.

Let's hope Obama catches on a little quicker than FDR did.

[jwirr]

3. Yes, I am a fan of James Howard Kunstler and one thing that may

make this bearable is that oil peak will bring us down to smaller regional units and local units. That I think would allow us to work on survival and unity of purpose. Many of us are already preparing. I told my daughter the other day that we would continue to live for the future but we would prepare for the worst. Hopefully we will have time to complete the latter plan. We are well on our way already.

[CoffeeCat]

4. Can I ask...how are you preparing...

...for the worst?

I've tried to prepare by doing some things, but many make it sound like our country is going to
turn into something out of a Cormac McCarthy novel. How do you prepare for utter disaster?

I may not be prepared, but this is what I've done: All funds out of the stock market; a good chunk of cash out of
the bank and at home; 4 months stockpile of food, paper goods, toiletries (shampoo, etc) and other essentials (batteries,
laundry detergent, dish detergent, etc); paid down all debts except mortgage, purchased children's clothing/shoes 1 and
2 sizes up from their current size.

I may be prepared for a recession, or a bit worse; or if my husband loses his job for six months. However, I don't
believe I'm prepared for anything beyond that.

I'd love to know what other people have done to prepare--and I'd also love to hear exactly what circumstances people
think we should be preparing for.

[screembloodymurder]

5. Here's the survival manual ... and it's a great read as well.

http://www.whentechfails.com/

"This book is an indispensable basic manual for the real-life issues that await us in the decades to come. Those who read it, and pay attention to its treasure trove of practical wisdom, will enjoy a huge advantage as the cheap oil fiesta winds down and circumstances compel us to live differently."


-- James Howard Kunstler
The Long Emergency

[NickB79]

7. LOL, I went to your link, and it took me to Amazon.com to buy the book

And off to the side, I saw this advertisement:

"Start reading When Technology Fails on your Kindle in under a minute.

Don’t have a Kindle? Get yours here."

A Kindle is an E-book. The irony of that ad just floored me with laughter :-)

[FedUpWithIt All]

8. Mental prep is the most important thing IMO.

Shock, realization and finally acceptance are stages that people need to go through in long term crisis situations. Mental prep involves working through some of these stages before the proverbial SHTF.

People who are mentally prepared are better able to access their creativity and utilize the AVAILABLE resources when crisis strikes. Flexibility is crucial in survival situations.

Knowing and really self confirming limits for one's own moral and social codes before these things are tested or strained will allow a more rational framework to work with during stressful times. Coming to terms with the fact that We Americans live in excessive comfort is the first step in paring done our ideas about what constitutes a basic need. These things all help one get "ahead of the game".

Any knowledge learned now is knowledge known later when the sources for learning are scarce. Learning or compiling information, particularly from sources that have actually survived through crisis or with limited resources is IMHO the single greatest asset should times become more difficult. (Back To Basics by Skyhorse Publishing and edited by Abigail R. Gehring is an incredible book that really touches on nearly everything to do with self sustaining living)

Small community minded folks, as history shows, tend to fare better than those who isolate. Now is the time to develop networks in this direction. High stress situations are not a good time to decide if a group is compatible.

Try and change to a simpler and more self reliant LIFESTYLE now so that any adjustments in the future will not be so daunting. This is not only wise as a planning tool for the future but also is less burdensome on our resources now.

I realize that this all seems rather vague and what you might be asking people for is concrete ideas but i think that no one solution is going to fit all as things get more chaotic. I do not believe anyone really knows exactly what to plan for. This is why mental planning and prep is so valuable.



:hi:

[bhikkhu]

9. Very good advice - here's a little more

Learn to grow food - plan and plant a garden if you don't already have one, and expect to learn more and expand it every year. There's nothing so freeing and confidence building as being able to grow food. You can also look at yourself as a valuable asset and potentially a teacher to others, then, if things become difficult.

Walk or bicycle to the places you need to go. I personally stopped driving everywhere last summer, in favor of bicycling. It has been wonderful, and it is great to think that I can be comfortable and happy and healthy with all the things I need, and never drive a car. It has involved becoming more fit, which is a benefit to the mind and body. If gas becomes unavailable someday I am afraid for all the people who have let themselves go, who have become totally dependent on motorized transport. I tell my daughters that one of the basic things they should expect of themselves is the ability to transport their own body from one place to another without help.

For the rest, there's a great deal we will never be able to predict, but I read a book once about "survivors" - people who lived through things as contrasted to people who didn't. The central fact to survival is simple stubborn determination to live regardless of anything. The best way to build that reserve of determination is to enjoy life when it is easy. Now is easy, and you should be able to find some way of enjoying all the different moments and circumstances of life.

[Warpy]

21. People who cling to entitlement are simply not going to survive

at least not well. I'm afraid poverty requires a lot of adaptation and tough choices a lot of rigid personalities out there are not going to be willing or able to make.

What I learned from a brief period of homelessness is that shelter comes first, before food or anything else, and that the closer your food is to the field, the cheaper it is.

This fast food nation is going to have to learn how to cook, though.

[FedUpWithIt All]

22. It hits me sometimes that there are adults in this country that really could not cook a basic meal.

It boggles the mind.

Fix plumbing? Build a structure? Butcher an animal? Sew a shirt? Ferment a beer, pickle, cabbage? Salt beef, pork, fish? Build a fire...without a match or lighter? Make a bar of soap? Bake a loaf of bread by hand? Make a homemade barometer? Catch a fish? Brew a medicinal tea? Set a bone? Make a wood stain? Dry a nut? Weave a basket, cloth, rug? Distill a medicinal alcohol, an essential oil, ethanol?

We have lost an incredible amount of basic skill in this country.



I agree with you that shelter comes first, especially in inclimate weather.

I cannot remember a time when i was not trying to learn a new life skill or gauging my environment for ways to break it down to basic simplicity. I live a life many American's would not envy. I have craved a mature orchard, dark fine earth and a functional home/kitchen...always. It rarely occurs to me that this is an unusual mind set.

Lately, i have started to notice how people react to, relatively minor (unplanned), life changes. It is scary to realize that a great many people CANNOT adapt/adjust. What are people going to do if they have no choice but to take a little life lesson cram session? We Americans are so unbelievably insulated. I do not believe that this level of "pampered" and "sheltered" lifestyle has ever before occurred so prevalently in a single society. I hope we, as a society, will be able to reclaim a level of skill set and productivity that matches the needs of our future. The alternative is too upsetting.

[Warpy]

24. I learned most of that stuff and more

and if I can learn it, other adaptable people can. None of it is rocket science and there are enough old hippies like me out there that there is a huge knowledge base to work from for people who are willing to learn.

Unfortunately for many rigid types, that sense of being entitled to access to conveniences of all sorts including restaurant food is going to get in the way of their learning anything new and taking pride in doing it well.

We saw the problem after every hurricane when people standing in rubble just couldn't believe they were stuck, that the old reliable 7/11 was a pile of rubble, too. They literally had no clue how to survive and were incredibly resistant to anything but having things handed to them.

[jwirr]

17. Having read the other posts I would say we are working on many

of those solutions. I am also collecting how-to books that would have answers if I did not know how to do something. My family are fortunate that we live in the country near a small town and so much of the fallout from a disaster would probably not effect us as much as say someone living in the city. As to mental preparation - I agree. My daughters and I are pretty much aware that things could get pretty bad very quickly and we are gently preparing my grandchildren and letting them know some of the things we are doing to be ready. I think that maybe FDR had some very good advice in the worst situation - don't let fear drive your situation.

[CatholicEdHead]

6. According to that list we are nearing #2 right now

[Lance31]

10. WE CAN BARBECUE REPUBLICANS!

Sweet and Sour Pork.

[Joanne98]

12. YAY

[tama]

11. Quote

"The command-and-control structure of the Soviet economy largely decoupled the necessities of daily life from any element of market psychology, associating them instead with physical flows of energy and physical access to resources. This situation, as I argue in my forthcoming book, Reinventing Collapse, allowed the Soviet population to inadvertently achieve a greater level of collapse-preparedness than is currently possible in the United States."

This is why state socialism or "homo sovieticus" only sucks bad, while state capitalism or "homo economicus" sucks fatally. Scientific materialism, how narrow it may be, is way better than blind faith in Mammon.

[earth mom]

13. This is why we need a huge ass stimulus package FOR THE PEOPLE.

But it's looking like the "new" powers that be have decided to throw the majority of the people in this country to the wolves. :argh:

[bvar22]

14. I'm at Stage 4,

..and clinging desperately to my "faith in humanity".

I was angry during the Reagan years, but believed that the Democrats would set things right when the pendulum swung back. My REAL disillusionment began during the Clinton years when little effort was expended undoing the damage of Reagan, and more effort was directed at increasing Corporate Consolidation and Power.

The 2000 election theft and the refusal of the Democratic Party to contest it, or even stand with the CBC pretty much destroyed any residual hope that we lived in a representative democracy.

After Campaign/Election 2004, my wife and I started making plans to provide for ourselves. We started drawing down 401ks and selling everything. After much research, we bought property in a very rural unspoiled/undeveloped area of The South with an abundant clean water supply surrounded by National Forest (plenty of wildlife, long growing season, low energy demands, very low property taxes).

In 2006, we quit our jobs, left the Big City (Minneapolis), and moved to our new place.

We have planted a large vegetable and fruit garden, have two healthy HoneyBee colonies (expand to 4 colonies next Spring), and keep a dozen chickens. More fruit trees and a large BlueBerry Patch will be added this year. We are freezing and canning this year for consumption over the Winter. Next year we will be drying produce for low energy storage and marketing.

We have reduced our taxable income to near poverty levels.
We no longer use "credit", don't have a mortgage, build everything ourselves, buy "used, 2nd hand, or salvage" directly from previous owners, and Barter, Trade, or pay CASH to avoid all taxes whenever possible.
As much as possible, we have stopped consuming in the Corporate America sense of the word.


We ARE registered to vote, and supported the Democratic Party 100% this election, but don't hold much hope that anything will really change. Our focus has become local Humanitarian/Community Issues, and methods of denying support for Corporate America and our One Party system.

[tama]

16. Warmest compliments and great admiration

You know the Chinese saying, "If you want to be happy for a one day, get drunk. If you want to be happy for three days, get married. If you want to be happy for a week, slaughter a pig. If you want to be happy for whole life, become a gardener!" :)

If you allow, couple questions. How close are you with the local community and how's the community spirit there? Ever heard of GEN (Global Ecovillage Network?)? Have you studied forest garden/ multilayerd permacultue gardening? Last but not least, have you been thinking about getting few goats? Life would be much worse without goat cheese and other nice dairy products, plus they produce also good fertilizer compost. Not to mention lether for shoes etc. (and meat - very good meat, actually). :)

[bvar22]

18. We are learning as we go.

Season 1
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=246x5729

Season 2
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=246x7979

The above is limited to the garden (since it is posted in The Garden Forum.)
We are also improving the land, reducing energy use through several passive projects, planting clover and other nectar producing crops for the Bees (Ligustrum, Mountain Mint, Vetch), and more fruit trees.
The first two seasons were mostly experimental...to find out what grows well, what problems we would encounter not using pesticides or herbicides, developing efficient means to preserve and store our produce, and learning BeeKeeping and Keeping Chickens.

This year we are expanding the garden size, growing fewer tomatoes, and more leafy vegetables, squash, beans, berries, and herbs. We planted a few things in the Fall that are doing OK, and will expand our Winter Crop for next year. We would like to have a grain crop besides corn, but that is still in the research phase. There is a Green House and worm farm somewhere in the future....maybe next year.

We have plans for a few goats, but we need to build shelter and goat proof fencing before we put any goats here. Goats and gardens/fruit trees don't mix well.

Our "Community" is isolated. Most people in this sparsely populated area enjoy their privacy and isolation. There are no churches, stores, or any other structures within 10 miles that would serve as meeting centers.

WE have met a few other people who have moved into this area for the same reasons we did, and more are coming. Another DUer has bought property in this area. We often discuss "community" with this small group, but we are separated by too many miles to be a resource for each other if transportation/energy becomes a REAL issue.

There is another group in these hills, "Survivalists", who are stocking up on guns and MREs.
They are praying for the End of the World, and gleefully fantasize about a time when it will be OK for them to shoot hungry people. These people scare us, and we avoid them.

Then there are the people who have been here forever.
We actually have built a good inroad with them. It happened by accident. The FireHouse for our rural district is very close to our house. We are both healthy and athletic, so we joined. Since the firehouse is so close and we both have good mechanical skills, we quickly became indispensable for maintaining the equipment, and driving the trucks to the fires. After a few months, the other firefighters (mostly locals who had been here forever) decided they could trust us (something that usually takes a generation). Politics, religion, and family tree are secondary when developing the trust it takes to go into a burning house with someone.
After 2 years, Starkraven was elected as the "Administrator" of our RVFD, and has a county badge. She is also the 1st Responder for medical emergencies in our area. Most people drop their inhibitions/prejudices when you show up at their house to help them during an emergency.


As far as "Community" as in a Sustainable Community, there is very little active interest among the locals. Most of them drive the 20 miles to the nearest town for their needs. When gas was at $4.00/gal, I talked to some about a basic car pool or bulk buying, and there was some interest, and the acknowledgment that there may be a time when we will have to work together, but with cheaper gas most of the attention has returned to immediate personal needs.
If the necessity arises, it will be the motivating factor, and our Community Contacts through the Fire Dept may serve as a vehicle. But I don't see a spontaneous Sustainable Community Movement arising without external motivating factors.

We don't consider ourselves "Survivalists". We came here because we are attracted to this lifestyle, not because we feared the future. We were and are disgusted by the one party political situation in the US, and have decided to actively withdraw economic support for the WARS and WalMart-ization of America, but again, this was a decision made out of love and respect for ourselves, not anger at the system. We sincerely hope "The Crunch" doesn't happen because it will make things harder for everyone, including us. We will keep doing what we are doing because we love doing it, regardless of what the rest of the World decides to do.

[tama]

19. Thanks for the reply

The guntoting "survivalist" mindset is quite familiar to me, lots of them at the Peakoil.com forum. Jokingly (or maybe be half-???), I once suggested to them that when the "zombie hordes" that are too many to support arrive, instead of starting shooting at them which will lead to getting shoot at, a good gardener invites them to a banquet... with specially spiced food. And next day composts their carcasses... ;)

I fully agree that "survival" is not the point, that is mere egotism, the point is to live well the days we are given, as well as one is able, and to give more to the land than one takes.

Goats, who need daily attention, are difficult if there is only one family taking care of them and no wider support network when need arises to be away for some time from the farm. On the other hand, one local "ecovillage" that I stayed in for a week helping in gardening work, had goats but as they were the responsibility of a single individual and no one else committed to helped, they had to give up the goats. No one ever said that building community spirit was easy, especially modernized people who seek way out of this dead end, so even more respect for the people who keep trying.

You seem to be doing very well, thanks for sharing your experience and all the best for you. :)

[FedUpWithIt All]

23. ...

:applause: :hug:

[tomreedtoon]

15. The wealthy don't believe in America any more.

The wealth they piled up under Bush, at our expense, they are sitting on. They refuse to help other Americans by starting or loaning to industries and businesses. Their assets should be claimed, but Obama won't do it.

[snappyturtle]

20. Very interesting read. I don't see Stage 5 happening because I

still have faith in human beings but if the economic situation stayed really bad for an extended period then I guess anything is possible. Scary.