Stock Index, S&P Sector & Bond Index performance numbers, week ending 06/20/2008

[A HERETIC I AM]

                               STOCK INDEX PERFORMANCE

Index                                Week     YTD     12-mo.   2007    5-yr.
DOW JONES 30 (12210)                -3.76%   -9.62%  -10.04%   8.88%   7.60%
S&P 500 (1361)                      -3.07%   -9.34%  -11.10%   5.49%   7.74%
NASDAQ 100 (1990)                   -1.91%   -7.29%    0.83%  19.24%   9.96%
S&P 500/Citigroup Growth            -2.50%   -6.04%   -4.15%   9.25%   6.82%
S&P 500/Citigroup Value             -3.72%  -12.89%  -17.85%   2.03%   8.58%
S&P MidCap 400/Citigroup Growth     -0.53%    2.68%    2.13%  13.55%  13.15%
S&P MidCap 400/Citigroup Value      -2.00%   -2.02%   -9.20%   2.84%  13.57%
S&P SmallCap600/Citigroup Growth    -0.39%   -0.93%   -5.96%   5.66%  13.48%
S&P SmallCap600/Citigroup Value     -0.93%   -3.28%  -14.88%  -5.19%  12.15%
MSCI EAFE                           -1.20%   -9.43%   -9.37%  11.76%  16.75%
MSCI World (ex US)                  -1.14%   -8.31%   -7.60%  13.04%  17.41%
MSCI World                          -2.00%   -8.45%   -8.79%   9.69%  12.46%
MSCI Emerging Markets               -0.80%   -9.97%    6.71%  39.23%  29.62%

Source: Bloomberg. Returns are total returns. The 5-yr. return is an average annual.
One-week, YTD, 12-mo. and 5-yr. performance returns calculated through 06/20/08.

                          S&P SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Index                       Week     YTD     12-mo.   2007     5-yr.
Consumer Discretionary     -5.08%   -8.21%  -23.28%  -13.21%   3.03%
Consumer Staples           -3.46%   -5.56%    2.81%   14.36%   8.53%
Energy                     -1.05%    5.54%   21.60%   34.41%  28.30%
Financials                 -4.72%  -23.21%  -38.38%  -18.52%   0.11%
Health Care                -2.57%  -13.44%  -13.04%    7.32%   1.64%
Industrials                -2.74%   -8.91%   -8.69%   12.04%  10.34%
Information Technology     -2.90%   -9.09%   -2.98%   16.30%   7.60%
Materials                  -1.90%    5.65%   10.27%   22.53%  18.58%
Telecom Services           -5.28%  -17.46%  -19.24%   11.88%   7.50%
Utilities                  -1.04%   -2.72%    7.43%   19.38%  16.51%

Source: Bloomberg. Returns are total returns. The 5-yr. return is an average annual.
One-week, YTD, 12-mo. and 5-yr. performance returns calculated through 06/20/08.

                             BOND INDEX PERFORMANCE

Index                               Week    YTD     12-mo.  2007    5-yr.
U.S. Treasury: Intermediate         0.66%   1.52%   9.37%   8.83%   3.33%
GNMA 30 Year                        0.82%   1.09%   7.60%   6.97%   4.36%
U.S. Aggregate                      0.79%   0.63%   7.10%   6.97%   3.68%
U.S. Corporate High Yield          -0.61%   0.64%  -1.11%   1.88%   7.31%
U.S. Corporate Investment Grade     0.56%  -0.84%   3.57%   4.56%   2.95%
Municipal Bond: Long Bond (22+)    -1.59%  -3.15%  -1.60%   0.46%   3.71%
Global Aggregate                    1.50%   2.62%  12.64%   9.48%   5.47%

Source: Lehman Bros. Returns include reinvested interest. The 5-yr.return is an average annual.
One-week, YTD, 12-mo. and 5-yr. performance returns calculated through 06/20/08.

                         KEY RATES

                         As of 06/20                   
Fed Funds               2.00%     5-YR CD         3.79%
LIBOR (1-month)         2.48%     2-YR Note       2.88%
CPI - Headline          4.20%     5-YR Note       3.58%
CPI - Core              2.30%    10-YR Note       4.16%
Money Market Accts.     2.38%    30-YR T-Bond     4.63%
Money Market Funds      1.90%    30-YR Mortgage   6.41%
6-mo. CD                2.86%    Prime Rate       5.00%
1-YR CD                 3.24%    Bond Buyer 40    5.25%

Sources: Bankrate.com, iMoneyNet.com and Bloomberg

                          WEEKLY FUND FLOWS

                        Week of 06/18         Previous
Equity Funds                $22 B              $7.9 B
Including ETF activity, Domestic funds reporting net inflows of
$24.264 B and Non-domestic funds reporting net outflows of -$2.237 B.
Bond Funds                   $1 B             $16.7 B
Municipal Bond Funds       $374 M            $5.540 B
Money Markets          -$36.071 B           $94.047 B

Source: AMG Data Services

FACTOIDS FOR THE WEEK OF JUNE 16TH - JUNE 20TH

Monday, June 16, 2008
Saudi Arabia has agreed to boost crude oil production by 200,000 barrels a
day starting in July, according to UN Secretary Gen Ban Ki-moon. The
Saudis just increased production by 300,000 barrels a day in June. The price
of a barrel of crude oil closed Friday’s trading at $134.86, but is trading
above $138.00 this morning. Michael Greenberger, a former top official at the
Commodity Futures Trading Commission, estimates that large banks and
hedge funds now account for 80% of oil-contract trading and have driven up
the price of oil by 25%, according to USA TODAY. In 2000, approximately $9
billion was invested in oil futures, versus $260 billion today, according to
BusinessWeek. The price of oil is up more than five-fold since April 2003.
The dollar, which shoulders some of the blame, declined by 23.5% versus a
basket of major currencies over that span.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Merrill Lynch just boosted its target for global infrastructure spending to
$2.25 trillion per year over the next three years, nearly double its earlier
estimate, according to SeekingAlpha.com. China is expected to account for
close to one-third of total annual spending at $725 billion a year. The Middle
East-Gulf Region is the next highest at $400 billion followed by Russia, India,
and Brazil at $325 billion, $240 billion, and $225 billion, respectively.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Earnings growth for the S&P 500 is expected to decline by 7.7% (y-o-y) in
Q2, but rebound to post double-digit gains in Q3 (+12.3%) and Q4 (+51.0%),
according to Bespoke Investment Group. Earnings growth in the financial
sector is expected to fall by 45.9% in Q2, way off the 9.2% gain posted in
Q2’07, according to data from Bespoke and Thomson Baseline. Here are the
estimates for earnings growth in the financials looking ahead three quarters:
+2.6% (Q3’08); +452.7% (Q4’08); and +285.2% (Q1’09), according to
Bespoke Investment Group.

Thursday, June 19, 2008
S&P 500 stock buyback activity for Q1’08 totaled $113.9 billion, a 3.2%
decline from the $117.7 billion spent in Q1’07, according to Standard &
Poor's. It was the tenth straight quarter in which buybacks exceeded $100
billion. The record-high was set in Q3’07 at $171.95 billion. Over the past
fourteen quarters (buyback boom began Q4'04), companies spent $1.55
trillion on buybacks, versus $1.68 trillion on capital expenditures and $783
billion on dividends.

Friday, June 20, 2008
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that oil producers will
extract an average of 87.7 million barrels of crude oil per day worldwide in
2009, according to USA TODAY. The EIA believes that demand will average
87.7 million barrels per day as well. The tight supply/demand relationship is
just one of the factors driving speculation in the futures market. In 1970, for
example, demand averaged 46.8 million barrels per day, while production
averaged 48.9 million barrels. Energy traders are used to seeing a cushion
of one million barrels or more per day and that doesn’t exist today.

The above was gathered by and posted from
FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P. • APPROVED FOR PUBLIC USE • 06/23/08


Web link to this and all previous weekly information is here

[gateley]

1. Thank you for this --

although I don't understand it as I'm not an investor.

BUT -- I'm thinking of investing in Apple, primarily based on the fact that they're coming out with the new iPhone next month.

So do your charts indicate at all, whether this is a good or bad time to consider investing in stock?

Thanks for your help!

[A HERETIC I AM]

2. I think the charts indicate...

It's a good time to invest in certain stocks/sectors. After all, the idea of "buy low, sell high" can only be realized if one actually buys at or near market lows. We certainly have a market low situation these days.

Apple is an interesting company and they seem to have a good product pipeline.

Yahoo Finance has a useful feature. Type in the symbol of the stock you're interested in and look on the left for "Analyst Coverage". Click "Analysts Opinion" and you will get a consensus of how various analysts are rating the issue.


Here is that page for Apple

It shows that 17 of the analysts surveyed last month gave Apple a "buy" rating. The page also give an idea of a "Price Target", a high, low, median and mean, which is what those analysts suggest the issue has the potential to rise (or fall) to. Interestingly, there are 0 analysts that have Apple rated as either a "Sell" or "Underperform". Also, it appears that this info has not been updated for a while, as there is nothing for the current month listed.

If you are interested in investing in a particular issue, you might want to consider using the "Dollar Cost Averaging" strategy. In a volatile market, this method will allow you to accumulate more shares over time for a lower average price per share. This concept works with individual stocks, Mutual Funds - virtually any security.

[gateley]

3. Wow - thank you so much!

I'll check out these links, and I really appreciate your input! :hi:

[harry123]

4. Do we really have a market low?

Do we really have a low? I think the market is nowhere near 1999 levels, but it certainly isn't cheap. P/E ratios are high and dividend yields are low. Plus the risk/reward right now is extremely bad.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/06/market-risk-is-high.html

Why do you believe that the market is low right now? Are there specific sectors other than the financials that are low?

[harry123]

5. Here's an article suggesting we are far from a low.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/49075/why-this-superbear-is-a-long-way-from-bottom.html

[A HERETIC I AM]

6. Far be it from me to "call the bottom", as it were. I'm not doing that nor do I suggest we are at

the bottom. What I said was "we certainly have a market low 'situation' these days". The DJIA is well below the intra-day high of 14198 set last October. That obviously means some stock shares cost less today than they did in October.

I'm not trying to be cagey here, but it is not prudent to make statements on a message board that could be construed as an investment recommendation one way or another. At least I don't think it's prudent. I'll leave that to the many others that have no problem telling people what to invest in and when. My response to Gateley above was an attempt to offer an avenue for further research, NOT a recommendation to immediately purchase shares of Apple.

The article you posted was interesting, but the question of whether or not the Dow or the S&P is presently "cheap" is one that I suppose could be debated. I'm just not willing to do so.

I put this thread up every Monday because of feedback I received a few months back that indicated it was appreciated by a few people. The figures/statistics are not, as I mention every week at the bottom of the post, a result of work I perform. I merely take what is a .pdf formatted report on a publicly available website and transcribe it here. It is my hope that some find this report informative. To use it as a guide for the purposes of trying to find a low or the bottom (or ANY advantage, for that matter) is in my opinion, a usage that at best should only be a part of the decision making process.

I have suggested many times that it is up to the individual to either seek professional guidance with regard to investing or thoroughly research a particular security before investing. Making such a decision based solely on one table of figures or the opinion of one writer of an article is, I'm sure you would agree, foolish. It is my experience that during difficult economic times, the number of pundits suggesting doom and gloom increases exponentially. Most of them end up being wrong. If any of them could predict with reliable accuracy what the market would do in a given time span, they would not be wasting their time writing articles about it.

[harry123]

7. I'd agree that we have a low.

I'd agree with what you say for sure. The question, as you indicate is what to do with this information? Does one think we're going lower or that this is a point at which to buy? As you say, that's an individual decision given the levels of market risk that we see in a number of markets. Buyer, beware.

Thanks for your original message and the clarification.