So..is a Dean primary and caucus sweep possible?

[helleborient]

The latest polls all seem to be pointing to that possibility:

Dean is now leading in New Hampshire, Iowa, DC, and South Carolina...as well as very strong organization in other early states such as New Mexico...leads in Michigan, New York, Maryland, Florida, and Massachusetts...and apparently Gephardt even getting worried about Missouri...along with the gains on Lieberman in Connecticut.

Wow...the possibility actually seems real. I never expected that. Howard Dean's campaign continues to outstrip even my admittedly positive expectiations.

[CMT]

1. probably not

but what might be is a copy of Carter '76 strategy which was to run everywhere and have a victory some place each primary night. Not necessarily win them all, but to win somewhere every Tuesday or whatever date it is.

[helleborient]

3. So where do you expect him to lose?

Is he behind there?

[adadem]

8. Michigan

[helleborient]

11. Why? I'm curious...he leads the polls...

And I lived in Michigan. What do you see there?

[CMT]

12. I'm not saying he doesn't have the potential to win everywhere

especially if he takes a wide early lead, but the possibility of winning every caucus and primary state is not realistic imo. I think Clark will be his main rival and will win some states. The main thing for Dean is to do well everywhere, not necessarily win them all--but unlike some candidates not pick and choose but run everywhere and win something each primary night. He may indeed end up winning many of them.

[mikehiggins]

2. ummm, nope

He may take Iowa and New Hampshire but things will shift drastically between them and the next round.

The problem will be with the determination of his workers. Once he loses a primary the media will immediately begin beating the drums for Clark or someone else to be the new Golden Boy.

Listing one Dean victory after another won't sell any papers.

[helleborient]

4. This sounds much like the "peaking too early" comments floated

A couple of months back..guess we'll just have to wait and see.

The media also likes to trumpet overwhelming wins.

[Demobrat]

5. The determination of his workers?

If Dean has a problem, it won't be that.

[Larkspur]

6. Dean is way ahead of Clark in planning

Dean is opening offices in the Feb 3 Primary states soon, if not already, and the gains made in the SC polls show that Dean is already building post-IA and NH win momentum, so it's very likely that Dean will win big time in the Feb 3 Primary states.

[Upfront]

25. Wrong

I think you may under estimate the Dean support. They won't quit, and neither will Dean.

[Bucky]

45. "They won't quit, and neither will Dean."

He's not a Democrat. He's the Terminator!

[no name no slogan]

7. They said that about Gary Hart in 1984

and we know what happened there.

[LuminousX]

13. he went on to support Kerry?

[no name no slogan]

23. Your point being....?

They said the same thing about Ted Kennedy in '76, that he was a virtual lock on the nomination. However, a smooth-talking peanut farmer from Georgia kicked Teddy's ass all over Iowa, and that was it for Teddy.

Look at the Gore/Bradley matchup in 2000. Even with only two major candidates, neither one won a lock on all the primaries and caucuses. Do you honestly think it will be different with over four times as many candidates?

There's still 90% of Americans who can't name a single Democratic presidential candidate. We've barely started with this whole thing. It's way to early to say that one candidate will have a lock after Iowa or New Hampshire, or even South Carolina.

[ISUGRADIA]

32. Your facts are wrong. Kennedy ran in 1980 not 1976

And it was against a smooth talking PRESIDENT at that time in Carter who had the Iranian hostage crisis and Kennedy's ineptness to his advantage. Even after losing IA and NH, Kennedy won several major primaries, CA and NY for example.

As for 2000...Bradley did not win a single primary or caucus so I'd consider it a fact that Gore had a lock that year.

[polpilot]

18. Right. Gotta keep Dean outta those boats.

Dean '04...No Monkey Business

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

33. ...And no bridges.

[ISUGRADIA]

31. There's big differences

1) Gary Hart was back in the pack until he came in 2nd in IA and won NH. Dean is the frontrunner now and has the most $ by far and the best orginization.

2) the 2004 primary season is much more frontloaded than 1984's. Candidates without money after IA and NH cannot depend on free press and 1 on 1 campaigning to win. It's all TV ads. Only Kerry and Dean are likely to have the $ to compete.

[Jerseycoa]

9. In South Carolina

MOE 4.5 - Dean might actually be polling at 6.5% and Lieberman and Clark at 13.5%, for all we know. Am I correct in this or is this not what it means? Thanks.

Dean: 11% (9% in Sept/ 4% in July)
Lieberman: 9% (8% in Sept and 13% in July)
Clark: 9% (2% in Sept)
Edwards 7% (10% in Sept, 5% in July)
Sharpton 7% (5% in Sept, 8% in July)
Gephardt 7% (4% in Sept, 8% in July)

[helleborient]

10. Your correct and Dean may be at 15.5% and Edwards at 2.5%

I think it is interesting to note after Dean finally set up his state office in S.C. a couple of weeks back...the next poll has him in the lead.

The Dean campaign has just started in South Carolina.

[Jerseycoa]

15. OK Thanks

I started to wonder if I was reading these things correctly.

[Demobrat]

16. Let the letter writing begin.

Once IA and NH are sewn up and the letter writing machines turn their attention to SC, look out.

[polpilot]

20. Dean's campaign hasn't begun to take off. Dean's poll #'s v. Bush will

explode after Iowa and the MORONS who are relying on CURRENT Dean v. Bush polls will FAINT when the post Iowa polls come in.

Dean '04...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

34. It'll be McGovern all over again.

Except the other way.

[polpilot]

43. Turbocharged...exponentially. Pundits need to practice: 'Well I've never

seen anything like it. I don't know what to say. What's happening out there??

Dean '04...

I predict Dean will force the DLC to change the party name to Deanocrats...and swear an oath to party principles in their undies on Larry King Live.

[annxburns]

14. Yep, we don't even need to vote ...

... Dean has it all wrapped up.

[helleborient]

17. No, obviously, he can't win if people don't vote...please do vote!

And his supporters are working hard to make sure we all show up.

All of the candidates should work hard to make sure their supporters show up, too.

I'm just speculating and curious...it comes with being a political junkie...and yeah, I'm excited about my candidate.

By all means, though, please do vote!!!

[a_lil_wall_fly]

19. Well, I think that any polls states...

an undecided factor of greater than 30%..it is toooooo early to tell on whom will win. If the percentage is below 20% and anyone has a greater than 12% lead before the MOE; it is going be tough for any below the MOE level to come in and steal the show away from the candidates that are in the MOE; since that there is nine of them. The level of 20-30% can produce either situation above as well but the 2nd tier candidates vs. candidate in MOE; has a little bit more of a cashion outside of the MOE. Hence FL, SC, DC, NM, MA, CN, NY, IA are still open; Dean has NH. Unless these polling companies have it all wrong in NH.

[CalebHayes]

21. Want to bet?

I will give you a Washington State apple, if Dean sweeps the primary. But if he does not I want some goods from your state Illinois.

Is it a deal?

[beyurslf]

22. I think a sweep is a long shot

But what other candidate can even credibly talk about the long shot idea of it? Is there any other candidate who finds him(her)self in the top of every state that has polls out? If dean wins even 25% of the states by Feb 3 and takes 2nd in all the rest, it still puts him leaps and bounds above the rest.

Clark is the closest who can even come to this. But he won't place in IA (not running there) and at best should get 3rd in NH. I am a missing someone who may do better?

[Josh]

28. Actually, two polls out this week have Clark 2-3 points off Kerry in NH -

he could very realistically come in second, in which place he would be the talking point, not just Dean's 30-point win.

[genius]

24. If so, we need to start of party of true Democrats

I don't believe Democrats are so stupid as to not look at how bad he is on the issues and care. I feel that when they get to the voting booths, their consciences will take over and someone else will win. If not, there's no hope for our party.

[Dems Will Win]

26. The only state he might lose now is Missouri, he's even 9 points up in MA

Gephardt is at 45% in Missouri and Dean in single digits. Whether Gephardt makes it past Iowa is quesitonable and he might drop before then.

[CTLawGuy]

27. no, Dean's at 22% in MO

NT

[Dems Will Win]

29. I giddily stand corrected! What doth Gephardt now have then?

[Scott Lee]

30. Maybe Gep will get porn film offers after that shadow on the flag photo

Hey, a second career is never a bad thing.

[polpilot]

44. A bad attitude?

Dean '04...

[ThirdWheelLegend]

36. who is we?

What do we win with Dean?


TWL

[dsc]

35. Won't happen

This race will eventually drop down to a few people and Dean will lose some states. If he is one on one vs Clark he will lose some Southern states. For sure Ark, MS, and AL. Probably everything down there save SC, FL, and TX. If it is one on one with Gep then he will lose MO, and some other midwest states. If it is one on one with Kerry or Lieberman he will lose some New England states and maybe some western ones. Gore was the first clean sweep in history for a non incumbent.

[virtualobserver]

37. depends on the the egos

If they are all bunched together, they may not be able to drop out.

I do think that the momentum of big wins in Iowa and NH will dramatically boost Dean in the other polls.


I think that a sweep is quite possible in the early rounds.

[a_lil_wall_fly]

40. Dean and the "Ol' Reb" region

Dean should get KS and KY.
Clark should get AR, MS, AL, and LA.
Edwards should get VA, NC, WV and GA.
Gephardt should get MO and TN.
MD, SC, FL(Lieberman 2nd) and TX is up from graps.
With Sharpton and/or Bruan in the 2nd/3rd/4th stop in all but TX, MO, FL, and KS.


Out west:
CA up for grabs
OR Dean and at 2nd:Kunnich or Kerry(only reason--solid enviromental)
WA Dean and at 2nd:Kunnich or Kerry(only reason--solid enviromental)
ID Dean and at 2nd:Kunnich or Kerry(only reason--solid enviromental)
HI Dean

[OhioStateProgressive]

38. no

Kucinich will win Ohio and at least 2 other small states

Clark will win a couple states too

I am sure Dean will probably win the nomination, but I will try as hard as I can to keep that from happening

[a_lil_wall_fly]

39. I think Kunnich will do very well...

after the showing at the FL convention; I hope that those that went will and like DK will spread his ideas and statements!!!

Thou Kunnich in my book keeps rising but I have 2 gripes(WTO/NAFTA) on him and that I will not vote for him at the Oregon Primary(Edwards/Braun/Kerry). But if he does win the ticket--I would vote for him too get the talking house plant out of office.

[jmaier]

41. I'd be surprised

Frankly,

I expect to see NH close up by the times the polls close. This is not a state that historically annoints a frontrunner, unless it's a relatively unopposed incumbent -- even Clinton closed on a huge Tsongas lead after a dismal 2.8% performance in IA in 1992.

If any other contender ends up in the 20 to 25% range in NH, I think they will make it a contest in February. It'll be interesting to watch. There's still a good chunk (19%) undecided and these folks have been inundated with Howard Dean and his campaign now for MONTHS.

[slinkerwink]

42. I definitely won't discount that possibility!

;-)