The Gov. is in a weak position. The state is broke and the leg has used it to their advantage. They have forced one ugly bill after another on him and after he vetoed a record number of bills he had to make cuts that they knew would annoy his base. This came after repeated calls to close a corporate tax loophole - ignored by Republicans.
Local pundit has this to say about McCaskill....
"I call her the meanest woman in Missouri politics, and I call her that respectfully. I remember when she ran in the 1998 Democratic primary against Steve Conway. They had agreed to a nonaggression pact. You know the kind. "We're both good Democrats, and let's be friends." He observed the pact, but on the weekend before the vote, she attacked. She had dug up stuff from his divorce records - malice aforethought! - and while her televised attack ads weren't exactly accurate, they were devastating. Conway had no chance to respond."
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/columnists.nsf/Bill+McClellan/45071FED4B5CF0B886256DC50012BFB0?OpenDocument&Headline=State+Democrats+can+go+for+the+long+shot+or+the+low+blow&highlight=2%2CClaire%2CMcCaskill%2CdivorceAll that said, there is no guearantee that she would be in any better position to beat Blunt than Holden is. The polling indicates that they have about an equal shot of winning. Since she is basically unknown to most people, the Republicans will have the opportunity to define her if she is the candidate. They will do it negatively. Our chances will depend on the odds of her recapturing her own image.